Interpretation: The Purchasing Manager Index Of China'S Manufacturing Industry Was Basically Flat In June

On June 30, 2021, the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics and the China Federation of logistics and purchasing released the China purchasing manager index. In this regard, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center Senior Statistician Zhao Qinghe has carried on the interpretation.

In June, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Manager index, non manufacturing business activity index and comprehensive PMI output index were 50.9%, 53.5% and 52.9%, respectively, down 0.1%, 1.7% and 1.3 percentage points compared with the previous month, but they all continued to be above the critical point, and China's economic operation continued to maintain an expansion trend.

　　 1、 Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index runs smoothly

In June, the purchasing manager's index of the manufacturing industry dropped slightly by 0.1 percentage point, which continued to be in the booming range, and the manufacturing industry maintained a stable expansion. Main features of the month:

First, both supply and demand are falling and rising. The production index was 51.9%, down 0.8% from the previous month. In recent years, production activities of some enterprises were affected by factors such as chip, coal, power supply shortage and equipment maintenance, and production expansion slowed down. The index of new orders was 51.5%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points over the previous month, reflecting the growth of market demand. The performance of various industries in this month is quite different. The production index and new order index of textile, clothing, pharmaceutical and other industries are all in the relatively high boom range of 56.0% and above, which is more than 2.0% higher than that of last month, and the production and demand growth is fast. The two indexes of petroleum coal and other fuel processing, ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing industries both fell below the critical point, and the industry prosperity declined; The two indexes of automobile manufacturing industry are in the contraction range for two consecutive months, and "core shortage" and other factors have brought adverse effects on the development of the industry.

Second, the import and export index declined. The index of new export orders was 48.1%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, indicating that the foreign order volume of manufacturing industry fell. Among them, the index of new export orders of agricultural and sideline food processing, ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing, nonferrous metal smelting and calendering processing industries was lower than 43.0%, with a large decline. The import index fell below the critical point at 49.7%, 1.2 percentage points lower than the previous month, reflecting a decrease in the import of raw materials for manufacturing.

Third, the high price index fell. Recently, a series of "guarantee supply and stable price" policies have shown their effects, and the rapid rise of manufacturing prices has been initially curbed. The purchasing price index and ex factory price index of main raw materials in this month were 61.2% and 51.4% respectively, lower than 11.6% and 9.2% of the previous month. From the purchasing price index of main raw materials, except for petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industries, other industries have significantly decreased. From the perspective of ex factory price index, most industries have fallen to varying degrees. Among them, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry have a large decline, falling to the contraction range; However, oil, coal and other fuel processing industries are still higher than 70.0%, and the ex factory prices of products continue to rise.

Fourth, the overall PMI of enterprises of different sizes is stable. The PMI of large and medium-sized enterprises were 51.7% and 50.8%, respectively, lower than 0.1% and 0.3% of the previous month, and remained in the expansion range. The PMI of small enterprises was 49.1%, 0.3% higher than that of the previous month. Although it was still in the contraction range, its outlook was improved.

Fifth, consumer goods manufacturing industry is on the rise. Driven by the recovery of market demand and promotion activities in the middle of the year, PMI of consumer goods manufacturing industry rose to a high of 52.2% in recent five months this month, higher than 1.6% of the previous month. Among them, the production index and new order index were 53.9% and 54.6%, respectively, 1.0% and 3.5% higher than that of the previous month, and the expansion of industry production and demand accelerated.

　 2. The index of non manufacturing business activities fell

In June, the non manufacturing business activity index was 53.5%, lower than 1.7% of the previous month. The non manufacturing industry continued to expand, but the expansion was weakened.

The service industry maintained a recovery trend. Affected by the local epidemic situation in some areas and other factors, the business activity index of the service industry dropped to 52.3%, lower than 2.0% of the previous month, but still higher than the critical point, indicating the steady recovery of the service industry. In terms of the industry situation, driven by the promotion activities in the middle of the year of "618", the business activity indexes of postal express, telecommunication, radio and television, satellite transmission services, Internet software and information technology services, which are closely related to online consumption this month, are all in the relatively high boom range of 57.0%, and the total business volume is growing rapidly; Both monetary and financial services and insurance industries rose to a high level of above 60.0%, and business activities were significantly accelerated. In addition, the business activity index of air transportation, accommodation, catering and other industries dropped below the critical point, and the market activity decreased. From the perspective of market expectation, the expected index of business activities is 60.4%, which continues to stay in the high boom range, and is higher than the same period in recent years, reflecting that service enterprises continue to be optimistic about the market development prospects.

The construction industry is running smoothly in the high boom zone. The business activity index of the construction industry was 60.1%, which was the same as that of the previous month. For two consecutive months, the business activity index of the construction industry was at a high level, and the construction industry maintained a rapid growth. In terms of price, the input price index and sales price index of the construction industry dropped to 51.7% and 52.0% respectively, of which the input price index dropped by 21.9 percentage points to a 9-month low, and the pressure of cost rise in the construction industry eased.

　 3. The comprehensive PMI output index continued to expand

In June, the comprehensive PMI output index was 52.9%, lower than 1.3% of the previous month, indicating that the production and operation activities of China's enterprises have maintained an overall expansion, but the intensity has been weakened. The manufacturing production index and non manufacturing business activity index which constitute the composite PMI output index are 51.9% and 53.5% respectively.