Beijing'S "School District Housing Belief" Is Disintegrating

? ? ? Within two days, the owner expected to reduce 1.38 million yuan from 10.38 million yuan to 9 million yuan; Three days ago, the buyer wanted to break the contract and was struggling with whether to give up the deposit of 400000 yuan. The original owner could accept a further reduction of 500000 yuan; The quotation of semi basement will be reduced by 1.55 million yuan

? ? ? With the "investment myth" and "degree myth" balanced by policies, the market has been disturbed. The 21st century economic reporter visited Desheng district and found that the house prices in Desheng District, known as the "top school district", had a trend of correction, and Yuetan district was also shrouded in a hesitant atmosphere of "breaking the contract and breaking the contract".

In fact, the campaign to strictly control the "speculation in school district housing" has long been a game of chess, and the direction has been clear in the past year. Only when the boots really landed, did the parents with a fluke mind see the reality.

Will 2021 be the first year when the housing price value of school districts will disappear? Is the future "school district housing no longer" or "from peak to plateau"?

In addition to the variables, it may be undeniable that this reform has disintegrated the public's illusion of school district housing and broken the "never falling" expectation, and education equity can be better realized.

In big cities, the relationship between the degree and the house has almost reached the point of harmony, and with the rise of house prices, it is pulling the nerves of every family. Whenever there is a change in policy or market, parents will have a sensitive reaction. The housing in Beijing school district is just a reflection of this phenomenon.

This time, "prohibit speculation in school district housing" is unprecedented, and the pursuit of "educational balance" is the future direction. IC photo

After "magic" fails

There is a list of Xicheng school districts circulating in the industry. The old niuxiao school, the traditional high-quality school, the direct promotion school, the famous school branch school and the ordinary school occupy one color. The ordinary school in black font is the "slag small" in the traditional saying. The top three school districts of Financial Street, Desheng and Yuetan in Xicheng (hereinafter referred to as "jindeyue") are full of high-quality primary schools, In this form is the appropriate "top school district".

Recently, the concern of the Beijing school district is that the wishes of the parents who bought the houses in Desheng and Yuetan school districts after July 31, 2020 have been dashed.

According to a statistical table provided by the real estate agent, the "jindeyue" was most affected this time. The housing supply in Desheng and Yuetan areas was not only out of the originally anchored "niuxiao", but also other primary schools in the area were so hot that they could only choose the schools in the neighboring school districts, "and they were all ordinary schools"; Financial street housing is only left in the area of two ordinary primary schools to choose, otherwise it is also adjacent school district ordinary primary school adjustment optional.

Back to April 30, 2020, Xicheng issued the "multi school zoning" policy, which has made it clear that when children of school age who purchase houses in Xicheng District and obtain the housing property right certificate apply for admission to primary school, they will no longer be enrolled in the corresponding partitioned schools, but will be enrolled in the school district or adjacent school districts in the form of multi school zoning.

However, Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, also pointed out: "this policy is actually a helpless move. It is true that the degree is not enough. Not all Xicheng students will leave the school district after July 31."

Many parents who had already bought a house before July 31 reported that the school-age children who were in the top of the order had occupied the school's quota, so their children could only accept the adjustment. There were a small number of high-quality schools and most ordinary primary schools.

In a word, the school district housing purchased by parents of jindeyue school district with a unit price of 170000 yuan or even 200000 yuan has the same degree treatment as the houses with a unit price of 130000 yuan in the surrounding area. This situation is bound to reconstruct the house price.

The immediate effect and strength of the degree arrangement results in a "choice" that should have been considered for a long time.

Psychological tug of war

"Buyers who have just signed a contract and haven't had time to transfer their ownership are considering whether to break the contract, especially if the children go to school in this year or two." A real estate agent in Desheng District told reporters that due to the failure of high-quality degree and the fear of subsequent price decline, some buyers considered to terminate the contract, but those who had already transferred their ownership but bought after July 31 could only "look at the house in despair" because they did not meet the two-year sales restriction rules.

A buyer who has just signed a contract less than a week ago and whose child will go to school next year has not made up his mind whether to give up the deposit of 400000 yuan. However, the original owner is willing to reduce the price by 500000 yuan to find a buyer because of the serial transaction unable to wait longer.

On the other hand, the correction of house prices is also reflected in the "de bubble". The original offer of 15.5 million yuan for the semi basement, covering an area of 129 square meters, was reduced by 1.55 million yuan within a week, although the unit price was still as high as 108000 yuan. If the added value of the school district is removed, this is the price that all basements in Beijing can't match.

Guo Yi, the chief analyst of Heshuo institution, said that the physical value of school district housing is far less than the current price if the school district attribute is stripped off. In particular, the quality of housing resources in some old residential areas is relatively poor, and this price dip is bound to occur.

Zhang Dawei also said that it would be dangerous to buy a top school district. Under the strict implementation of the policy, "jindeyue" will fall one wave.

However, the adjustment of housing prices needs a time cycle, and most owners have entered a wait-and-see state. According to the above brokers, affected by the end of the traditional peak season, housing transactions in the "jindeyue" school district have been greatly reduced since April. In addition, there has been no transaction recently due to the result of this degree change.

A number of brokers predict that, at least after a month, transactions will slowly appear, and the consolidation results of house prices will be concrete.

The school district housing of "jindeyue" has entered into a calm period of transaction, more precisely, it is the psychological sawing period of the owners.

"If there are fewer children going to school in the next few years, won't they have to be transferred?" Some parents have launched such discussions in Beijing's well-known parent exchange communities.

The scene repeats. Just as after July 31 last year, some parents were still on the front line of buying a house with meaningless expectations - "there will be no poor schools in the District, and many schools will not be able to enter poor schools". They are gambling that the policy will not be strictly implemented. It is also them who have pushed the transaction of Xicheng school district to a hot state. According to the reporter's understanding, in November 2020, Desheng's school district almost sold one set, and even seven or eight buyers for the same suite.

Only this time, "no speculation in school district housing" is unprecedented, and the pursuit of "educational balance" is the future direction.

As for the relationship between the number of school-age children and degree adjustment in the future, Zhang Dawei's statistical data show that the number of children entering school in the next three years will show a blowout, especially in 2022 and 2023, which is significantly higher than this year's number.

Theoretically speaking, the spillover effect of housing in superior school districts will intensify, and the uncertainty of enrollment will also increase.

However, Zhang Dawei also pointed out that the education imbalance still exists. Unless we dilute the advantageous educational resources or increase the high-quality resources, the value of Xicheng school district still exists.

Guo Yi added that while the original dominant school district housing will be significantly adjusted, it is expected that the whole school district will "cut the peak and fill the valley", and the average property will be more obvious.

Add three more "hoop mantras"

Market consolidation and house price correction are the results of the comprehensive action of all parties. In addition to waking up the parents of "Jiwa", Xicheng District regulatory authorities have also increased constraints on the intermediary.

On the morning of July 4, Xicheng District Housing Management Bureau organized a working meeting of the main real estate agencies in the jurisdiction, such as chain house, I love my family, 21st century real estate, wheat field, Central Plains, etc., and reiterated once again that "speculation in school district housing is strictly prohibited.".

The regulatory authorities put forward "three no" requirements on real estate intermediaries: not to release housing resources with school district housing as the selling point; Do not accept the Commission whose price is obviously higher than the market price; Employees are not allowed to participate in any activities of speculation in school district housing. In the next step, the relevant institutions and personnel will be dealt with seriously according to the processing results and transfer clues of relevant departments.

Subsequently, on July 6, Xicheng District Housing Management Bureau reported that two employees of Beijing I love my family had released inflammatory information against Xicheng District's education reform policy, causing mass gathering, suspected of making trouble, and had been detained for criminal purposes.

We must act in a vigorous manner.

In fact, Beijing has already set restrictions on intermediary agencies on school district housing. The 21st century economic reporter learned that, at least in the "jindeyue" area, the housing resources with a unit price of more than 180000 yuan will not be displayed, and the house supply under the backstage even has a unit price of more than 200000 yuan. But if the buyers demand, these houses can still participate in the transaction“ After the release of "three tight hoop mantra", it is not known how this kind of housing will be disposed of.

One point worth paying attention to is that after Xicheng District issued the policy of "multi school segmentation" last year, some of the we media big V deeply participated in the district selection of house buyers and recommended Yuetan school district housing. After the results of the degree came to the ground, big V also said that it was unexpected, and its reputation in the parents' communication community was obviously lost.

Parents' belief in "School District Housing" is also gradually loosening up, such as "high premium leads to high risk, there is no stable profit and no loss business", "old broken small suspension", "high-pressure housing loan is unable to bear for a long time, so the approximate rate is to return to value", which has won a lot of praise in the parent exchange community.

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