Viscose Staple: Poor Market, Imbalance Between Supply And Demand, Prices Continue To Fall

As of July 7, viscose staple fiber showed a downward trend as a whole. In recent three months, the price of viscose staple fiber decreased by 2280 yuan / ton, or 14.50%. Since March, the textile market has turned light, and most of the products have no resplendence after the festival. Since the price of viscose staple fiber reached a high level in early March, it has not been adjusted again. Competitors and downstream companies have been allowed to decline wantonly. In April, viscose staple fiber continued the sales downturn in March, and the price gradually declined.

According to the monthly K-bar chart, the price of viscose staple fiber has been on the rise from September 20 to March 21, with a negative drop since April, and the price decline in May is the most obvious, with a decrease of 8.85%.

From the upstream commodity cotton yarn, wood pulp fell by 10.66% in the past three months, and the wood pulp spot price was still in the state of continuous make-up decline. In June, the performance of the downstream base paper market was weak, and there was no obvious fluctuation in the paperboard and coated paper markets, and the downstream procurement continued the rigid demand strategy. At the beginning of the month, the pulp futures price showed a weak shock state, which also made the wood pulp spot price basically adjust with the futures price shock. Then, near the middle of June, the pulp futures prices started again after a few days of silence, which led to the downward consolidation of wood pulp spot prices. In the second quarter, the downstream paper products entered the off-season of consumption, the rise of external quotation slowed down and the pressure of national policy increased, all of which made the wood pulp price under pressure.

Business agency analysts believe that viscose staple fiber production is expected to remain low in July, but since the middle of July, the strength of viscose staple fiber Market rotation inspection may gradually slow down, and the overall supply of the industry will still show an upward trend. Since 2021 / 4 / 4, the 7-day moving average under the 30 day moving average starts to move downward, but at present, the two moving average lines have a trend of opposite direction. According to the calculation of 2021 / 7 / 4, the probability of operation situation change in the next 7 days (that is, the 7-day moving average is above the 30 day moving average) is 50.39%（ Note: if the 7-day moving average crosses the 30 day moving average upward, the index enters the upstream channel; If the 7-day moving average crosses the 30 day moving average downward, the index enters the downward channel.)