"Core Panic" Accelerates "Reshuffle" Of China'S Car Market: Top 5 Passenger Cars Occupy Four Seats Independently In The First Half Of The Year

In the second quarter of 2021, China's auto market, which has been recovering for a period of time, appears new changes again.

Auto sales fell 12.4% in June, up from 3.1% in May, due to a shortage of chips, according to data released by the China Automobile Industry Association on July 9. China's auto market also experienced a rare double-digit decline after 14 months.

Data shows that in the first half of this year, 12.569 million cars were produced, up 24.2% year-on-year, and 12.891 million vehicles were sold, up 25.6% year-on-year. The high growth rate was mainly due to the low market base affected by the epidemic in the first quarter of last year. Compared with the same period in 2019, the year-on-year growth of automobile production and sales is only 3.4% and 4.4% respectively.

It is worth noting that the problem of chip tension was particularly prominent in the second quarter, the impact of joint venture brands was more obvious, and the market shuffled. At the same time, the new energy vehicle market continues to rise, and the market penetration rate has increased significantly, which will gradually change the pattern of the whole automobile market.

In the second half of the year, although the market demand is still strong, and CAAC also predicts that the shortage of chips will gradually ease in the third quarter, but the market situation in the second half of the year is also facing great pressure.

"In the second half of the year, the impact of chip supply on enterprise production is still more prominent, and the sharp rise in raw material prices will further increase the pressure on enterprise costs." Chen Shihua, Deputy Secretary General of the China Automobile Association, said.

However, for the overall performance of the whole year, CAAC still has high expectations.

According to the forecast of CAAC, the total sales volume of China's automobiles will be about 27 million in 2021, with a year-on-year growth of about 6.7%. Among them, about 22.1 million passenger cars were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 9.5%. About 2.4 million new energy vehicles were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 76%.

Independent brands adapt to environmental changes faster

According to the data of CAAC, in the first half of this year, the production and sales of passenger cars reached 9.84 million and 10.07 million respectively, up 26.8% and 27.0% year-on-year, respectively. However, compared with the same period in 2019, the production and sales volume decreased by 1.6% and 1.4% respectively, and the growth rate of sales volume changed from positive to negative.

It is worth noting that since this year, with the serious shortage of automobile chip supply and the great difference in the corresponding ability of enterprises' industrial chain system, the structural differentiation of passenger car market trend is intensified, and the independent brand has achieved stronger growth. At the same time, due to the shortage of new products, the sales volume at the wholesale end of joint venture vehicles has dropped sharply, which has led to the transmission of adverse factors to the retail terminals, such as the imbalance of dealers' import and export, the matching of order demand and the imbalance of existing inventory.

In the first half of the year, the sales volume of Chinese brand passenger cars reached 4.198 million, a year-on-year increase of 46.8%. The market share was 42%, much higher than 36.3% in the same period last year. The performance of self owned brand passenger cars in the first half of the year is obviously better than that of joint ventures.

According to the data released by various listed companies and auto companies, the 21st century economic report found that some auto companies have seriously reduced their production due to the shortage of chips. As a result, the market of automobile enterprises shows great differences, and the sales ranking of top enterprises has also been adjusted.

In terms of joint venture vehicle enterprises, FAW Volkswagen has made outstanding performance and won the first place in the sales volume of passenger car market. In the first half of the year, 1.071 million cars were sold, up 22.5% year on year.

Previously, SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC GM, which had long been the top three sales volume in China, appeared Waterloo in the first half of the year. Two car companies in the second quarter of production fell sharply, which affected wholesale sales. According to the reporters of the economic report of the 21st century, the decline in wholesale volume is serious, mainly due to the relationship between chips. However, retail sales are still in a normal state.

Among them, SAIC Volkswagen's sales volume in the first half of the year was 532000, down 7.8% year-on-year, which is one of the rare auto companies in the auto market to show a decline. SAIC GM sold 582000 vehicles in the first half of the year, up 4.6% year-on-year, which also failed to beat the market.

Although Dongfeng Nissan, Dongfeng Honda, GAC Honda, FAW Toyota and GAC Toyota also suffered from the impact of chip shortage to varying degrees, on the whole, the five Japanese car companies all outperformed the market and the trend is relatively stable.

It is worth noting that in the first half of this year, the sales of SAIC General Motors Wuling, Changan Automobile, Geely Automobile and Great Wall Motor exceeded SAIC General Motors and SAIC Volkswagen. Among the top five automobile enterprises in the passenger car market, four self owned brand automobile enterprises rarely appeared.

Specifically, in the first six months, the sales of Chang'an autonomous passenger cars, Geely Automobile and Great Wall Motor were 660000, 630000 and 618000, respectively, with an increase of 68.3%, 19% and 56.5%. SAIC GM Wuling achieved 661000 sales in the first half of the year, an increase of 24.0% due to the hot sales of Wuling Hongguang Mini ev.

The reason for this kind of joint venture independent ranking reshuffle is that the chip supply is global temporary shortage, so the international automobile enterprises are facing greater pressure, and the independent automobile enterprises overcome the chip shortage and form a good growth trend under the crisis.

"The main enterprises of independent brands adapt to the changes in the environment of chip shortage and increase the supply chain of strong chain supplement. Many automobile enterprises have established closer cooperation with automobile chip enterprises to obtain certain chip guarantee. At the same time, independent automobile enterprises increase chip procurement in the secondary circulation market, which ensures the effective protection of some chips." Previously, Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the all China Riding Association, said.

However, in an interview with the 21st century economic report on July 12, Cui Dongshu said that in the first half of the year, the independent brands surpassed the old joint venture companies SAIC General Motors and SAIC Volkswagen, or it was a short-term phenomenon. As the chip supply gradually returned to stability, the sales of the joint-venture auto companies would recover.

Joint ventures need new energy

In the first half of this year, the new energy vehicle market is the most eye-catching field in the whole domestic automobile market, and the proportion of new energy vehicles in the sales volume of new vehicles has gradually increased.

In the first half of the year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.215 million and 1.206 million, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of two times. At present, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles have been in line with the annual level in 2019.

Since the sales performance of new energy vehicles in the second half of the year is obviously better than that in the first half of the year, it is expected that the production and sales scale of new energy vehicles this year will significantly exceed the level of 1.36 million last year, or even double.

Specifically, in addition to SAIC GM Wuling, Tesla China and BYD both sold more than 150000 new energy vehicles in the first half of the year. The three auto companies have gradually formed the first echelon of new energy vehicle market.

The three car companies aim at different market segments. Among them, Tesla's main sales models in China are the car market of 200000-300000 yuan and SUV market of 300000-400000 yuan faced by model 3 and model y. SAIC GM Wuling Hongguang Mini EV is facing a low-end electric vehicle market of about 50000 yuan. BYD's sales of new energy vehicles not only benefited from electric vehicles, but also because of its layout in the plug-in hybrid vehicle market. In the first half of the year, BYD's plug-in hybrid models increased by more than four times.

Automobile enterprises in the second echelon of new energy passenger vehicle market mainly include gac-e'an, Weilai automobile, Xiaopeng automobile, ideal automobile, etc. In the first half of the year, the cumulative sales volume of GAC ea'an, Weilai automobile, Xiaopeng automobile and ideal automobile were 45000, 42000, 31000 and 30000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 128%, 196%, 459% and 216%.

On the whole, the first and second echelons of new energy vehicle enterprises showed a high growth rate in the first half of this year. In the first half of the year, the total sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 1.145 million, and the market share of the above-mentioned seven automobile enterprises exceeded 60%. The rudiment of the pattern of new energy vehicle market is emerging.

It should be pointed out that although VW, Mercedes Benz, BMW, Audi and other brands continue to increase investment in the field of electric vehicles in China this year, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles of joint venture brands is still low.

Although the automobile market pattern adjustment caused by chip shortage may be short-term, with the proportion of new energy vehicles in the total automobile sales volume increasing, the pattern of the whole market will also appear some new changes.

The CAAC pointed out that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles increased from 5.4% at the beginning of this year to 9.4% in the first half of this year. Among them, the penetration rate in June has exceeded 12%, indicating that the emerging momentum is gradually expanding. From the current situation, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will be further improved, and it will be a high probability event that the annual penetration rate exceeds 10%.

However, as the overall scale of the new energy vehicle market is still small, the slow transformation speed of traditional multinational automobile enterprises and the more cautious application of electrification and intelligent networking technology are the main reasons for their poor market performance. When the new energy vehicle technology is mature and the market is more accepted by consumers, it is not impossible for multinational automobile enterprises to reap the electric vehicle market.

It needs to be pointed out that in the short term, the scale of sales of electric vehicles of automobile enterprises will also, to a certain extent, affect the layout of fuel vehicles of automobile enterprises. Affected by the shortage of chips, as well as the increasingly stringent standard of "double points" and the increasing trading price of points, joint venture vehicle enterprises are facing double difficulties. Joint venture companies need to increase investment in China's new energy vehicle market.

However, on the other hand, due to the booming production and sales of new energy vehicles, the double integral index of independent brands is further guaranteed. It also gives more fuel consumption space for self owned brand to produce fuel vehicles, so the independent brand can have more production and marketing space in SUV and other products that consumers like.

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