The First Half Year Performance Of Nonferrous Metals Plate Was Good, And The Net Profit Of Baotou Steel Co., Ltd. Increased By 32 Times

? ? ? With the general rise of ferrous metals and other bulk commodities in the first half of the year, the price of non-ferrous metals has also increased significantly. Under the influence of strong demand and rising product prices, the performance of related non-ferrous enterprises and mining enterprises generally increased in the first half of the year.

? ? ? Baotou Steel (600010. SH), which has two hot businesses of steel and rare earth, saw the highest net profit growth in the first half of the year, even more than 32 times, driving the stock price up and down on July 13.

Baotou Steel's two main businesses, steel and rare earth are all above the tuyere. Visual China

The nonferrous metals industry is very profitable

On July 12, Baotou Steel Co., Ltd. announced that it expected to achieve a net profit of 2-2.8 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year increase of 2281% to 3233%.

In addition to the relatively low net profit base in the same period of last year, such a high performance increase is also related to the fact that the two main businesses of Baotou Steel Co., Ltd., steel and rare earth, are in the wind.

Looking back at the same period last year, Baotou Steel's net profit was 84069900 yuan. Since the beginning of this year, steel prices have been soaring, at the highest position in the same period of history, and the price of rare earth has also increased dramatically in the year.

In addition to Baotou Steel shares, nonferrous plate of Listed Companies in the first half of the performance generally increased. In the first half of this year, the market demand for copper, aluminum, zinc and other non-ferrous metals was strong, and the overall price level was also at a high level, driving the profitability of relevant listed companies.

Tianshan aluminum (002532. SZ) estimates that the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in the first half of the year will be 1.96 billion yuan, up 200.15% year on year; The basic earnings per share was 0.42 yuan.

Tianshan aluminum pointed out that the expected performance growth was mainly due to the strong demand of aluminum industry in the first half of the year, and the aluminum ingot market price rose by more than 30% year on year; In addition, the company's electrolytic aluminum, high-purity aluminum, alumina, etc. maintain full load production, aluminum production costs are further reduced.

Mingtai aluminum (601677. SH) expects a net profit of 800-850 million yuan in the first half of the year, up 128% to 142% year-on-year. Nanshan aluminum (600219) is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.416 billion yuan to 1.55 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year increase of 66.85% to 82.64%.

The results of shengtun mining (600711. SH) are expected to increase by 1803% to 2046%, and the net profit will increase by 667 million yuan to 757 million yuan. In the first half of 2020, the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company of shengtun mining is 37 million yuan, and the earnings per share is 0.016 yuan.

Shengtun mining pointed out that the company's performance growth benefited from the rapid development of the new energy power battery industry, the market demand for new energy power battery is strong, and the price is also rising. Shengtun mining is mainly engaged in the development and utilization of non-ferrous metal resources, focusing on cobalt, nickel, copper and zinc metal varieties, focusing on resource mineral countries Congo (DRC) and Indonesia.

The net profit of Western Mining (601168. SH) in the first half of the year is expected to increase by 1.06 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 306%. Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630. SZ) is expected to have a net profit of 1.25 billion yuan in the first half of the year, up 232.73% year on year; The basic earnings per share was 0.119 yuan per share. Zijin Mining (601899. SH) expects a net profit of 6.2 billion yuan to 6.6 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year increase of 156.09% to 172.61%.

In the first quarter report in April this year, Ganfeng lithium industry (002460. SZ) made a pre disclosure on the performance of the first half of the year. The net profit of the company is expected to reach 800-1.2 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year increase of 411.23% to 666.85%. The reason for the performance impact is that the sales volume and price of lithium salt products of the company have increased, and the volume of lithium battery products has gradually increased.

In the first quarter of this year, the revenue of Ganfeng lithium industry was 1.607 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.94%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 476 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6046.30%.

Non ferrous metals rise due to multiple factors

Since the end of 2020, due to the continuous recovery of the global economy and the suppression of the supply side of the epidemic situation, the global commodity prices are generally rising. Among them, ferrous metals, led by iron ore, steel and coal coke, led the market, while non-ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc and so on had an obvious upward trend.

In the middle of May this year, the overall prices of mainstream metals such as black series and nonferrous metals rose to the highest level in recent years. Under the strong pressure of the regulatory authorities, they experienced a sharp decline in the short term, and then began to move upward again in late May.

In the first half of the year, copper, aluminum, zinc, tin and rare earth rose significantly, while lead prices rose more slowly, while zinc prices fluctuated in the high range.

In the first half of this year, the US Federal Reserve's record quantitative easing policy, inflation expectations in the United States and the rising CPI pushed copper prices upward. By the middle of May, copper prices had reached a new high in nearly a decade.

In the first half of 2021, the average price of Mysteel copper absolute price index is 65400 yuan / ton, up 47.10% year-on-year, and 35.56% higher than the same period in 2019. On June 30, the price of the index was 68400 yuan / ton, 17.92% higher than the opening price at the beginning of 2021.

Under the influence of macro policies, inflation expectations, rapid resumption of work and production after the Spring Festival, tight supply side and strong downstream demand, the aluminum industry maintained a high outlook. In the first half of the year, the domestic electrolytic aluminum broke the 20000 yuan / ton mark, and the price of lunlun aluminum rose to the highest of 2603 US dollars / ton from 1978 US dollars / ton at the beginning of the year.

In the first half of this year, the average price of Mysteel aluminum absolute price index was 17500 yuan / ton, up 26.53% year-on-year and 32.79% higher than the same period in 2019. Over the same period, the average price of Mysteel zinc absolute price index was 21800 yuan / ton, up 30.26% year-on-year, and 0.10% lower than the same period in 2019.

In the rare earth market, the average price index of praseodymium and neodymium oxide Market in the first half of 2021 is 509400 yuan / ton, up 106.01% year-on-year, and 67.50% higher than the same period in 2019.

Can we copy the hot market in the second half of the year?

In the first half of this year, the rising prices of ferrous metals and non-ferrous metals have brought great pressure to downstream manufacturing enterprises, and negative feedback from the demand side has been accumulating. With the domestic market entering the traditional off-season, what will the trend of nonferrous metal plate in the second half of the year?

Zhu Shanying, an analyst with Hongyuan futures, told reporters that the central bank's comprehensive reduction of the reserve rate over expectations has boosted the sentiment of the commodity market, but the emotional benefit is greater than the essence; In terms of copper fundamentals, supply recovered slowly and consumer demand was resilient to a certain extent. In terms of aluminum, although domestic consumption is in the off-season, aluminum industry is the only product that both supply and demand benefit from carbon neutralization. Aluminum price correction space is limited, and the overall pace is easy to rise but difficult to fall.

It is expected that the fundamentals of zinc will continue to weaken, the abandonment of storage will further increase the supply pressure, and the weakening of automobile consumption will make the off-season lighter, so the focus of zinc price still has room to move down.

According to my analysis on nonferrous metals.com, the rising US dollar index in the second half of the year will suppress non-ferrous metals, but inflation expectations remain unchanged, and there is a big divergence in the long-term and short-term sentiment in the market. The State Grain and material reserve bureau will release national reserves of copper, aluminum and zinc to non-ferrous metal processing and manufacturing enterprises, and the expected duration will reach the end of the year.

In addition, under the stimulation of high copper price, the supply side started to make full use of its power, but after entering June, the copper price has dropped somewhat, stimulating the consumer side to replenish the warehouse, and it is obvious that the domestic regional warehouse de stocking. As the global liquidity inflection point is approaching, the copper price is likely to weaken in the second half of the year, with the expected fluctuation range of 63000 yuan / ton to 73000 yuan / ton.

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