The Anchor Drift Of A-Share IPO Pricing Under The Registration System: Nearly 50% Of The Companies' IPO Price Earnings Ratio Is Less Than 23 Times

? ? ? ? Since the science and technology innovation board was officially launched in July 2019, the registration system has been implemented for two years. At the time of creating diversified and inclusive listing conditions, the market-oriented pricing mechanism has also undergone profound changes.

? ? ? With the continuous operation of the market-oriented inquiry mechanism, the issuing price of new shares under the registration system is undergoing significant differentiation, and the endless low-cost issuance has aroused more and more attention and thinking in the market.

According to wind data statistics, the reporter of 21st century economic report found that as of July 14, there were 190 declaration enterprises under the registration system that had completed online issuance this year. However, the issuing situation of listed companies was "double hot days". Some enterprises raised more than three times of funds in the competitive quotation of institutions, while others continued to "break down" in issuing prices and were significantly suppressed by institutions.

Up to now, as many as 159 enterprises have failed to raise enough IPO funds, accounting for more than 80%, of which 90 enterprises have less than 23 times of IPO price earnings ratio.

However, no new shares have yet broken on the first day of listing, which means that as long as they can be "sold" on the first day of listing, it is still a "steady profit and no loss" business.

"After the implementation of the registration system, the limit of 23 times P / E ratio was lifted. At that time, the market thought that enterprises could get higher prices after the restrictions were released. However, after two years of operation, the issuance market became more and more rational." A senior individual investor in South China pointed out in an interview.

Why is IPO low PE

? ? ? After the "pressing line" issue of Shangwei new material in October last year, another registration system declaration enterprise felt the "thrill" of inquiry issuance.

On July 8, Duke culture published a prospectus to offer 4.01 million shares at a price of 1.55 yuan per share. The total amount of raised funds was 62.0155 million yuan. After deducting the issuance expenses of 18.2874 million yuan, the actual net amount of funds raised was 43.7281 million yuan, which was the second lowest record since this century, only higher than the 29.7118 million yuan of Zhejiang Shibao in 2012.

Data show that reader culture originally planned to raise 268 million yuan in IPO, but after the issuance results were released, the ultra-low IPO price of 1.55 yuan / share only raised less than 30% of the capital.

However, the reporter noted that the price earnings ratio of this issue of reader culture is 13.06 times, which is slightly higher than the industry's average price earnings ratio of 12.41 times.

According to the preliminary inquiry results, a total of 10147 placing objects managed by 485 offline investors gave preliminary inquiry and quotation information on that day, with the quotation range of 1.48 yuan / share-30.83 yuan / share.

This is just a part of the change of the anchor of the value of a shares under the registration system.

According to wind data statistics, since 2021, the average issuing P / E ratio of IPO enterprises under registration system is about 30.55 times, and the median price earnings ratio is 23.44 times. In 2020 and 2019, the average issuing P / E ratios of IPO enterprises under registration system are 60.14 times and 59.47 times respectively, and the median price earnings ratio is 38.20 times and 48.72 times respectively, showing an obvious downward trend.

Since the beginning of this year, the number and proportion of enterprises with P / E ratio lower than 23 times have also increased sharply. In 2019 and 2020, enterprises with P / E ratio lower than 23 times accounted for 1.49% and 7.5% respectively, but in 2021, this proportion reached an astonishing 47.37%.

? ? ? This phenomenon also leads to a large number of IPO companies can not fully raise funds. For example, in 2021, Xiaoming shares, which have the lowest P / E ratio, are issued, with a P / E ratio of only 7.98 times, lower than that of the PE industry of 19.73 times. Xiaoming stock originally planned to raise 668 million yuan, but the actual fund-raising was only 213 million yuan, of which the issuing expenses accounted for 30% and the issuing cost rate was as high as 30.97%.

"I think that at least half of the reasons for the low PE of IPO come from the low price quotation of inquiry agencies. This group is a tacit agreement found out from the practice of meeting the interests of all inquiry institutions, rather than" conspiring "through meetings, telephone calls, wechat, etc., and the latter is in violation of the securities law and the amendment to the constitution; This "tacit understanding" is in the interests of inquiry institutions, so it is very easy for everyone to get rid of the highest and lowest prices, and the effective quotations are all low prices, and finally win the bid at low prices. Because there is no trace, no evidence, there is no way for regulation to intervene. " Li Jiwen, director of Shihe gene, told reporters of the 21st century economic report.

Polarization of issue price under registration system

? ? ? With the coming of ultra-low issue price, many listed companies are difficult to raise funds in full, which has caused many disputes. However, in the view of investment institutions, this is the "final destination" of market-oriented pricing.

"Because people don't think it's worth the price." "The overall quality of new shares listed this year is not high, so the institutional quotation is more cautious," said a person from the investment banking department of a medium-sized securities firm in Shanghai

Li Yang (not his real name), another private-equity participant, pointed out to the 21st century economic reporter: "in fact, the calculation of the number of enterprises with 23 times P / E ratio and the average p / E ratio is still based on the total amount and the idea of approval system. At present, the secondary market itself has a very high degree of market differentiation. New energy and semiconductors tend to have 100 times P / E ratios, while many financial institutions, financial institutions, and other financial institutions, as well as the semiconductor industry, have a high degree of market differentiation However, the valuation of banking enterprises is very low, and the issuance market basically continues the differentiation of the secondary market. "

? ? ? Li Jiwen also believes that the current PE of new shares is related to the trend of the secondary market, "the price of concept stocks has risen to the sky, but there are also companies whose share prices and PE are constantly innovating low. An important chapter of the IPO prospectus is "comparable companies". All the novelty agencies, including inquiry agencies, can clearly see the current PE of comparable companies. Some comparable listed companies rank in the industry even before the companies to be issued, but PE is 20 times or less. How can inquiry institutions quote high prices? "

As a matter of fact, there are many individual stocks that are sought after by institutions and over raised in the current issuance market.

? ? ? According to wind data, since this year, the proportion of over raised stocks has decreased compared with previous years, but there are also some stocks with amazing performance. Specifically, Aotai biological Co., Ltd., which has the largest proportion of over raised funds, is mainly engaged in the R & D, production and sales of in vitro diagnostic reagents, including drug and drug abuse detection, infectious disease detection, women's health test, tumor detection and cardiac marker detection.

? ? ? The company originally planned to raise 560 million yuan, but in the end, it actually raised 1.805 billion yuan, with an over raised proportion of 222.44%. In the issuance stage, it was warmly welcomed by institutions, and the final price was 133.67 yuan / share, which was one of the rare 100 yuan new shares since this year. The price earnings ratio of the issuance was 101.92 times, far exceeding the industry PE of 51.09 times.

The company is mainly engaged in R & D and design industrial software suppliers. The original plan is to raise 752 million yuan, and the actual fund-raising is 2.331 billion yuan. The issuing price of the company is 150.50 yuan / share, which is the second highest price of new shares this year. The price earnings ratio is 119.49 times, which is higher than the industry PE of 58.52 times.

"At present, the pricing of new shares is more related to the secondary market. We will refer to the recent tuyeres in the secondary market. For example, chips and new energy were relatively popular a while ago, so the valuation was easy to go up. But some environmental protection, animal husbandry enterprises, partial traditional industry valuation will naturally not go up. The root cause can not be said that someone deliberately to pressure the price of new shares, but combined with the performance of the secondary market itself Li Yang said.

According to the 21st century economic report, most of the 90 enterprises whose P / E ratio is less than 23 times are from traditional industries. Among them, there are about 50 enterprises in textile, animal husbandry, comprehensive utilization of waste resources, press and publication, papermaking, wholesale, food and beverage, metal products, etc., accounting for more than half of the total, while hard technology enterprises perform better.

In addition, the reporter also noted that the issue price of enterprises has little to do with the sponsor institutions. Among the 90 enterprises, there are many projects sponsored by CICC, CITIC, Haitong and other large institutions. Among them, 10 projects sponsored by CITIC Securities have a P / E ratio of less than 23 times. Among them, CRCC was sponsored by CICC and CITIC at the same time, but the fund-raising was still lower than expected.

Who cut the leeks of listed companies?

? ? ? With more and more IPO companies being "fractured" in their offering prices, more than 80% of the companies under the registration system failed to raise funds as expected.

Although some people in the market regard it as the performance of "rational" inquiry, the reporter noticed that these listed companies with lower issuance price have not broken the first day after they officially landed in the A-share market, and most of them will still have a situation of stock price soaring on the first day. This means that as long as these successful institutional or individual investors can sell on the first day of listing, they will certainly benefit.

? ? ? Taking Xiaoming shares mentioned above as an example, the issuing price of the company was only 4.54 yuan / share, but it rose 581.72% on the first day of listing, and the intraday peak even reached 35.41 yuan / share, which means that the highest return rate of investors hitting new shares can reach 679.96%.

This performance also lets the market personage jokingly, "the organization cut the leek of the listed company".

Wang Juan (pseudonym), Secretary of the board of directors of a company to be listed in Shanghai, told reporters: "the first purpose of the registration system is to promote the development of real enterprises, and the second is to promote the stability and activity of finance. However, if an enterprise's offering price is only 8 yuan, and the result is that the first day of listing is more than 100 yuan, this situation is that the lead underwriter has a very big deviation in the value prediction of the enterprise. "

"The purpose of listing enterprises is to solve the problems of financing difficulties and high costs of real enterprises, while finance is just a high premium generated by money flow, which should play an enabling role in the real economy. If finance becomes the harvester of real enterprises, it is putting the cart before the horse. " Wang added.

However, in Li Yang's view, this "upside down" phenomenon is mainly due to the immature secondary market.

? ? “ The characteristics of China's capital market determine the existence of price differentials in the first and second levels. Because most of the mature capital markets in the world follow the example of Hong Kong, China, but the unfairness of Hong Kong's rationing system is even more serious. Because the price is set by the issuer and the distribution object is determined, the securities companies have a great voice in it, which is more likely to breed unfairness, which we can't learn from in the mainland market. If we can't learn, we have to ensure the smooth issuance of the registration system. At present, the market supply is relatively large. If we want to support direct financing in the short term, this price difference will certainly exist for a period of time, but it is just a relatively reasonable problem of how much difference is“ Li Yang said.

? ? ? However, although the situation of "speculation" in the short term still exists, the frequent breaking behavior under the registration system is forcing the speculation to return to rationality in a longer dimension.

According to wind data, 44 new shares listed since 2020 have been broken. Among them, Youan design was only listed on April 22 this year, with the issue price of 120.80 yuan / share. However, as of the closing date on July 13, the share price of You'an design was 91.88 yuan / share, which was 23.94% lower than the issue price.

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