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Cotton Continued To Oscillate In Ice Period

2021/8/12 15:32:00 0

Ice Cotton Continuous Traders Up And Down

? Since August, ice cotton futures have continued to oscillate upward. The main contract in December stood at 90 cents / pound, and then broke through the integer levels of 91 cents / pound and 92 cents / pound (the intraday high of 92.43 cents / pound on August 10, a new high of 2021 / 22), and the consolidation range moved up to 90-95 cents / pound (compared with the low point of 59.51 cents / pound at the end of July 2020, ice has increased 32.92 cents / pound in one year, 32%).

As for the reason for the sharp rise of ice on August 10, the industry generally believed that it was the result of "favorable external stimulus and strong coordination of fundamentals". The rise was expected, but the increase was a little big and the pace was a little fast.

First, on August 10, the U.S. Senate passed a bipartisan infrastructure investment bill with a total amount of about $1 trillion, supporting the rebound of financial markets, stock markets and commodity futures;

Secondly, by the middle of August, the growth progress of American cotton was significantly behind that of previous years (the performance of budding, Bolling and boll opening rate was poor), which led to investors' worry about the increase of cotton yield per unit area and total yield in 2021 / 22;

Third, China, Pakistan, India and other countries expect cotton prices to rise higher in 2021 / 22 (all showing a decline in planting area and a rapid rise in consumer demand).

It is worth noting that, according to CFTC statistics, by the end of July 2021, there were 130497 ice cotton futures on-call contracts, a significant increase of 14933 compared with the beginning of July; With the strong rebound of ice in August, the on-call contract was forced to push back the point price continuously. The main contract broke 90 cents / pound and 92 cents / pound, and the non price contract was basically locked.

Cotton trading enterprises in Qingdao, Zhangjiagang and other places said that in the first and middle of July, they repeatedly urged and asked the purchasers to point the price below 88 cents / pound in time (the lowest point in the day was lower than 85 cents / pound), but some buyers still held a wait-and-see attitude, expecting ice to return to 82 cents / pound or even below 80 cents / pound, At present, most of the buyers negotiate with the cotton sales enterprises to postpone the price point by 15-30 days, cancel the contract, and buy back by the seller (the buyer gives the seller some compensation).

According to the survey, cotton related enterprises generally believe that it is a pity that cotton textile enterprises, middlemen and other buyers did not "get on the train" at 85-88 cents / pound, thus missing this round of rebound market; But more than 92 cents / pound into the market and the lack of confidence, more cautious, worried about the bottom copy copy at the top of the market, has become a trader's "pick-up man" and up and down dilemma.