National Tide Ushered In The Highest Light Moment

Hongxing Erke's explosion is far beyond the expectation of the market, but the logic is simple: under the joint efforts of various emotions, National tide ushered in the highest light moment 。

Now hongxingerke is a little bit of Carnival in the whole network, but looking back a few years later, it may become a landmark event with milestone significance, and then make domestic products become a trend.

Confucius was very particular about "the debate between the Chinese and the barbarians". He said about the Hanfu: "if we have a micro tube, I will be sent to the left". This is to determine the importance of the Han suit and rise to the height of human civilization.

In our stereotype, the technology content of the clothing industry is not high, and the foreign trade final orders of several yuan in Taobao, which are full of money, are pressing the price to death.

But from the secondary market point of view, it is a different picture. So far this year, as of the end of June, the clothing and home textile sector as a whole rose by 18.99%, far outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index (down 1.36% in the year). If from February 9 to now, clothing and home textile plate rose by an astonishing 42.56%. There are even five times of Taiping bird in three years and three times of Jinhong group in a month.

Without love for no reason, how to treat the clothing plate which is so familiar?

　　 The competition pattern is very good

In short, the rise in the stock price, on the one hand, comes from the over expected growth of short-term performance. For example, the net profit of Jinhong group increased by 612.34% in 21q1 and 98.42% in baoxiniao. Li Ning, Anta and other Hong Kong stock companies also achieved a big increase.

On the other hand, enterprises have different development paths. Once the upward trend is confirmed, the market will give them "valuation".

In terms of track segmentation, sports apparel and sports leisure style are more prosperous.

In the second round, different from people's stereotype, the competitive pattern of sportswear is very good

First, the industry has a rapid growth rate, with a compound growth rate of 14% from 2015 to 2020. If the impact of the epidemic situation in 2020 is deducted, the compound growth rate in 2015-2019 will be as high as 18%, which will be absolutely leading in the clothing industry. The compound growth rate in the next four years will also be as high as 15%, which is expected to continue.

Second, the competition pattern is getting better, and the market concentration is constantly improving. From the horizontal comparison, the brand Cr6 in 2020 will reach 65%, which is 15% higher than that in 2015, indicating that leading enterprises are consolidating their competitive advantages.

Another soft factor, but extremely far-reaching, is the long-term trend of deepening national tide.

In 2020, despite the impact of the epidemic, the growth rate of sports shoes and clothing will only drop by 2% (the global market will drop by 15%). Euromonitor predicts that China's terminal market will achieve a recovery growth rate of 23% in 2021. 2021-2022 is the big year of sports. The European Cup and the Olympic Games boost the track of sports shoes and clothing.

You can see a side example.

In 2019, the number of Chinese marathon participants reached 7.13 million, an increase of 22% year on year. Li Ning sponsored Qinghai marathon and Tebu sponsored Xiamen marathon.

After that, Tebu launched corresponding advertising in many we media, similar to the large-scale marketing promotion after the fashion week of bosden and Li Ning in 2018, strengthening the brand's influence in the field of professional running and the concept of the rise of domestic products.

This kind of event marketing will appear again and again in the future. In this regard, Chinese brands are more active and can also catch the consumers' interests.

　　 Generation Z owns the world

"Everything that was invented before I was born was taken for granted," Charlie Munger said; Everything I invented between the ages of 15 and 35 was destined to change the world; All the inventions after I was 35 are anti human. "

Similarly, change does not happen when one generation defeats the previous generation with fists, but quietly waits for them to die and then ushers in change.

Generation Z has become the middle force leading the consumer market. They grew up in an era when China's national strength has been rapidly improved (economic prosperity and national confidence). Their values are quite different from those of the previous generation. They have a higher acceptance of local brands, which promotes the rise and deepening of the national trend.

On the one hand, many small and beautiful brands quickly gain market favor through the accumulation of sense of identity. The rise of typical representatives such as Xi tea, tea color, bubble mart and perfect diary has brought impact on traditional brands.

On the other hand, the world outlook of generation Z has been profoundly changed by the Internet, forming unique consumption habits (channels, categories, marketing models, etc.), which also affects the consumption decisions of the previous generation.

In the past, in the era of channel as the king, it was difficult for local brands to shake the market position of overseas brands, and Nike and other brands existed in the minds of consumers.

In the era of personalization and social media, the brilliant design and products of local brands are more likely to reach young consumers, and brand stories and contents are more likely to touch target customers. Under this trend, the brand competition pattern is appearing imperceptibly the turning point.

With this round of upgrading of consumption concept, consumption habits, aesthetics and purchasing channels, local brands have the opportunity to counter attack.

The most typical case is hongxingerke Due to the donation of 50 million yuan of materials to the disaster area in Henan Province, the whole network is popular.

　　 According to the Jingdong report, on July 22 and 23, the overall sales of Guochao sports brand increased by more than 280% year on year. Among them, running shoes, sports pants, T-Shirts, etc. have become the most popular categories.

Now hongxingerke is a little bit of Carnival in the whole network, but looking back a few years later, it may become a landmark event with landmark significance, that is: Chinese people, especially young people, have begun to take pride in domestic products.

The reason why the previous boycotts have been so effective is probably that many people still think that foreign brands are superior to others in their subconscious mind. Therefore, once the trend is over, everything will remain the same.

But this time, with the "I use Chinese products, I am glorious" belief bonus, even if it is only a short-term heat, it is enough to make people feel comfortable wearing Chinese goods, thus forming an irreversible trend.

　　 Other tracks

Let's also talk about the other tracks:

The underwear and children's wear industry is in the growth stage, and there are few domestic brand enterprises with high dispersion and fierce competition, so the industry may have more market development space;

For medium and high-end men's and women's wear, if the brand positioning and design style are significantly different, they are relatively stable. Among them, brands such as GELIS, Pb men's and women's wear of taipingniao and teenie weenie of Jinhong group are outstanding;

The retail performance of traditional public leisure, business men's wear, shoes and other categories dominated by offline channels is relatively weak, and the situation of stock competition is obvious.

　　 Chinese goods are truth

A lot of emotions have been lurking underground for many years, and the only thing missing is a burst point. It will come sooner or later.

In the Xinjiang cotton incident, many overseas brands were faced with negative impacts from channels, public opinion, consumer reputation, brand image and other aspects, which triggered the terminal sales of local brands in a short period of time. Head domestic brands have attracted many consumers who originally only bought international brands.

This is a very good window of opportunity. Generation Z, high net worth people and top stars with higher leading ability can look back on domestic products. These people are just those people who are hard to reach by domestic brands.

The incident led to a lot of traffic stars to break the contract. After several previous lessons, the stars did not dare to play ambiguous in this respect.

Li Ning signed Xiao Zhan, Anta signed Wang Yibo, sports brand opened close cooperation with traffic stars. Before that, top traffic stars would choose to sign contracts with Nike, Adidas, UNIQLO and other international brands to reflect their commercial value. After the event, a large vacancy of endorsement resources was left, and more resources were allocated to domestic brands.

However, to be fair to say, whether the emotional users can be converted into long-term effective customers, and whether they can undertake the passenger flow converted from Nike and ADI for a long time, we can not only rely on feelings, but also rely on the hard power of products.

　　 Product power of domestic products

Briefly talk about the product strength of domestic products.

Sports shoes and clothing products have professional functional barriers, high customer loyalty, and sports shoes are the central arena, which can significantly open the product differences between brands.

In Xiamen marathon, four of the top five middle schools in active service were wearing the special step 160x series running shoes, making personal best achievements.

Sports shoes are mainly composed of soles, insoles and uppers, and the technology of insole is the most important. In 2018, peak released the adaptive mid bottom state pole technology; In 2019, Li Ning and Tebu successfully developed top-level cushioning technology, aiming at top international athletes.

In a word, the technology of the insole of domestic brand sports shoes has entered the explosive period, and even can compete with zoomx, the strongest foam material in the field of running shoes. For ordinary users, this product power is good enough, although leopard only wears ASICs nimbus-17.

Behind all this is the awakening of brand awareness, as well as the accumulation of Chinese supply chain system and manufacturing technology from imitation to learning to innovation.

　　 Supply chain advantages of leading enterprises

Overcapacity and cost pressure squeeze the poorly managed small and medium-sized textile enterprises and objectively bring about supply side reform.

With the rise of labor and material costs in China, the demographic dividend of Cambodia, Vietnam and other countries is emerging. Domestic manufacturers promote global capacity allocation and transfer production bases from China to Southeast Asia and other low-cost areas, which helps to reduce costs, improve gross profit and form higher entry barriers.

The epidemic has accelerated the pace of domestic textile supply chain transformation.

On the one hand, it is still the general trend to transfer medium and low-end production capacity to Southeast Asian countries with lower factor costs and less tariff disputes.

On the other hand, the rapid response mechanism of reducing the proportion of the first order from the source and increasing the order frequency has become the consensus of the whole industry, which puts forward greater challenges in process management, cost control, feedback mechanism and so on.

　　 Online channels crush foreign enterprises

On line channel, domestic brands squeeze international brands more obviously. Because online consumers are younger than offline consumers, they respond more directly to the national trend.

From the data of Taotao, tmall flagship stores of Nike and Adi showed significant negative growth in April and may, while domestic brands have taken on a large amount of market share of international brands. Since April, Anta, Li Ning and other terminal retails have obviously benefited from the tide of localization of share capital, and have achieved an over expected growth.

The official flagship stores of China's Li Ning, di Sant, FILA, Anta, Tebu and Li Ning increased by 164% / 150% / 69% / 59% / 41% / 39% respectively; Adidas / Nike / puma decreased by 32% / 26% / 14% respectively.

Shaking sound live broadcasting with goods has become a new channel for 618 brands, with 37.2 billion people watching and broadcasting on the platform as a whole. Among them, the sales of taipingniao women's wear, teenie weenie and Adidas flagship stores are among the top three in the anchor list.

With the strong rise of Chinese brands, domestic substitution is a natural process, similar to the home appliance industry in 2000-2010 and the mobile phone industry in 2011-2019.

According to this logic, in the future, we will see that the market share of domestic brands represented by Li Ning, Anta and Tebu will increase rapidly, while the market share of international brands will be flat or slightly decreased.

　　 The organization configuration is very low

From the perspective of institutional allocation, as of the first quarter of this year, the fund allocation of textile and clothing industry was only 0.25%, which was higher than that at the end of 2020, still at a historical low.

The key companies holding positions in A-share institutions mainly focus on the head companies such as SEMAR clothing, pelaya, Pacific bird and biyinlefen.

From the perspective of valuation, the current rolling P / E ratio of textile and garment sector is about 29 times, which is in the middle of historical valuation.

Standing at the current time point and looking forward to the second half of the year, considering the long-term trend of the industry recovery and deepening of the national tide, at the same time, adding the low position and relatively undervalued value of the current plate, the sports apparel plate is still worth looking forward to.

Sportswear (in fact, cosmetics and medical beauty can also be added) is a certain track. It is the leader of the high prosperity sub industry. The double improvement of performance and valuation premium will continue to bring Davis double-click.