In recent trading days, Zheng cotton strong rise, domestic cotton spot basis quotation, buy it now "rising voice" one after another. According to the feedback from cotton enterprises in Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan and other places, although the cotton futures price has risen continuously, the phenomenon of "having price but less market" and lacking transaction support is becoming more and more obvious. Most cotton spinning mills and middlemen resume their just need procurement and suspend the plan of expanding inventory in August and September.
? ? ? A medium-sized cotton textile enterprise in Dezhou, Shandong Province said that in the past half a month, the main contract of Zheng cotton has broken through the key points of 18000 yuan / ton (the early trading high of 18445 on August 17), and the cost of cotton yarn rose with the sharp rise of cotton futures price. Although we have repeatedly communicated with customers in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other places, the price increase space acceptable to downstream and consumer terminals is obviously lower than that of cotton spot. On the one hand, the enterprises reduced the high price purchase of cotton, basically suspended the inquiry and delivery of Xinjiang cotton in 2020 / 21, and increased the efforts to replenish the storage of polyester staple fiber, and increased the order receiving strength of blended yarn and pure polyester yarn; On the other hand, actively negotiate with weaving, fabric and other end customers to moderately increase the cotton yarn quotation. ? ? ? According to the survey, at present, the replenishment of raw materials in small and medium-sized cotton mills is composed of the following three parts: reserve cotton, port bonded or spot foreign cotton (mainly Indian cotton, West Africa cotton, Brazilian cotton and a small amount of American cotton, with the quality requirements significantly reduced), and the cotton production in 2020 / 21 or Xinjiang cotton (due to the price of cf2210 contract plate rising to 18300-18500 yuan / T, the cotton period is now greatly narrowed, The willingness of textile enterprises to receive warehouse orders is rapidly cooling. On August 17, the public weight quotation of "Shuang 28" machine picked cotton in Jiangsu, Henan, Shandong and other places concentrated at 18600-18800 yuan / ton (due to different quality indicators and warehouses or about 100 yuan / ton). Considering the price difference between public weight and net weight and the short-term difference, it is basically in line with the "buy it now price" of Brazilian cotton M 1 1 / 8 from 18900 to 19200 yuan / ton. According to the feedback from Cotton Traders in Qingdao, Zhangjiagang and other places, with Zhengzhou cotton cf2201 contract breaking through 18300 yuan / ton and ice main contract approaching 95 cents / pound, the cotton quotation for customs clearance at port, the US dollar quotation for bonded and ship cargo increased significantly, and the inquiry purchasing sentiment of domestic cotton textile mills and middlemen decreased significantly The price of Brazilian cotton is on the high side, and the market is 200-300 yuan / ton. A cotton enterprise in Zhangjiagang said that at present, cotton related enterprises and speculators have strong expectations for the continued rise of cotton internal and external prices. In addition, Zheng cotton continued to rebound sharply, resulting in a large number of high-grade Xinjiang cotton warehouse receipts being locked, foreign cotton basis quotation of traders remained stable, and the difficulty for downstream customers to accept and digest continued to rise compared with July. The company's customs clearance of Indian cotton (especially the cotton resources of CCI round) in the past week, the top drop in shipment, the decline in activity, buyers wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. According to the survey, in the first and middle of August, Zhengzhou cotton and ice rose, and the export of cotton outside the port was accelerated. Combined with the rise of sea freight from May to July, the shipping schedule and container tension and other factors, the total port cotton inventory showed a decline, while Brazil cotton, Indian cotton and cotton from other origins decreased to varying degrees, but the port inventory of American cotton increased steadily against the trend. An international cotton merchant judged that due to the negative effects of Zheng cotton and ice continuously setting new annual highs and cotton consumption overdraft ahead of schedule, and the sufficient quantity of American cotton, Australian cotton and Brazilian cotton during the shipping period from August to November, the port cotton inventory will hit the bottom and rise again after a short period of decline, and the sales pressure will not be effectively relieved. According to the quotation of traders, the net weight quotation of Indian cotton M15 / 32 is 17800-18200 yuan / ton (the quotation of 17600 yuan / ton and below is rare), while the "buy it now" price of Brazilian cotton M11 / 8 rises to 18900-19200 yuan / ton. The quotation of cotton for customs clearance is not only firm, but also the traders are generally reluctant to sell. Since the end of June, Zheng cotton has started a round of trend market. The price of main cf2201 contract rose from 15740 yuan / ton to 18505 yuan / ton, up 2765 points, up 17.57%. Meanwhile, ice cotton futures contract in December rebounded from 84.10 cents / pound to 96.71 cents / pound, with an increase of 15%. In the cotton period is now a big step up under the premise of cotton yarn factory prices, cotton yarn prices in the light textile market passively follow up. Cotton, cotton yarn rose sharply, cost pressure is difficult to effectively pass to the downstream, some small and medium-sized cotton spinning mill cotton yarn accumulation, operating funds affected. In recent days, a survey of cotton textile customers in Anhui, Henan, Shandong and other places shows that: first, power rationing in some areas of Henan and epidemic prevention and control in Jiangsu, Hubei and Henan still have a great impact on the production, transportation and sales of cotton mills; Second, the cotton yarn price began to rise, generally increased by 500-1000 yuan / ton since August (there are differences due to different count and cotton distribution), and cotton yarn sales progress has slowed down; Third, although the profit of cotton mills decreased compared with July, it was still at a high level in recent years, and the enthusiasm for receiving orders did not decline. So what problems do textile enterprises encounter at present? It can be summarized as follows: first of all, Christmas and Easter orders of European and American brands and purchasers in 2021 are 2-4 months ahead of the previous year, so textile and clothing orders are overdrawn, and the production and sales in the fourth quarter may not be prosperous in peak season. Secondly, the cost of medium and long-term orders received before August has risen sharply, and profits are facing the dilemma of being engulfed by the sharp rise of cotton futures. The loss of performance and non performance will also be claimed. Cotton yarn prices rise frequently, downstream purchasing and terminal feel at a loss, strong resistance, customers may appear relatively large loss. Finally, at present, the sea freight continues to rise, the container ticket is difficult to obtain, and the phenomenon of container dumping is common. In addition, the cargo accumulation in some ports in Europe and the United States has greatly extended the unloading, berthing and waiting period, and the delivery and collection period of cotton yarn of textile and clothing export customers are passively delayed, and the contract risk increases accordingly.
