Logistics Information: Global Shipping In Trouble Textile Industry Inventory Imbalance

? ? ? Since the outbreak of the Xinguan epidemic, the disadvantages of backward port infrastructure have become increasingly prominent. According to the real-time data of Kuehne + Nagel, there are 353 cargo ships blocked in the ports around the world, which is twice as much as that at the beginning of the year. Waiting for 22 freighters outside the Long Beach port and Los Angeles port of the United States, it is expected that the cargo ships will arrive at the port for unloading in 12 days. The congestion brings about many problems, such as rising prices of goods, delay in delivery, mismatch of market capacity, and "price explosion".

? ? One of the reasons for the global freight congestion is the varying degrees of border control imposed by various countries in response to the epidemic situation, as well as the forced shutdown of many factories, endangering the smooth flow of the whole supply chain, resulting in the soaring freight rates of shipping routes in China, the United States and Europe.

? ? ? In just two weeks, due to port congestion and new covid-19 restrictions, the number of dry bulk carriers queuing near Chinese ports has almost exploded.

? According to AIS data obtained by lauritzens bulkers, 7.5% of the world's small dry bulk carriers, including Handysize and Supramax, have been berthed near Chinese ports recently. This means an increase of 37% in just 10 days, equivalent to about 570 dry bulk carriers waiting to unload at Chinese ports. Two weeks ago, the figure was about 400, and the number of handy and super handy dry bulk vessels in the world was about 7725.

? More terrifying than high sea freight and port congestion is the increase in grey cloth hoarding ！

? ? ? After the middle of July, the orders of downstream chemical fiber weaving industry gradually turned cold. Although the overall startup rate is still at a high level in the same period, it is difficult to make a sound analysis of the situation of various regions and models, and then call out "the off-season is not light". In the second half of the year, more terrible than the shortage of orders and high sea freight is the increment of grey cloth storage.

? At present, according to the trend of various indicators, the start-up load of weaving is still at the high level in the past years, and the stock of grey cloth and raw materials is still within the controllable range. From the above three indicators, it can be recognized that there is support for the load and price of polyester, PTA and glycol, but one index that can not be ignored is the number of days of orders, which is basically approaching the same period in 2020, There is no doubt that the atmosphere of the off-season leakage, we can draw a conclusion that the supporting point of the three indicators is "gambling".

? ? Although there was a certain return of Southeast Asian orders during the period, and the orders for weaving autumn and winter were launched in advance, more atmosphere came from the inquiry and order placing of cloth merchants, resulting in a "thriving" scene in the market. In fact, up to now, large-scale signing mode has not been opened for terminal clothing, especially for autumn and winter orders.

? So what is the effect of weaving the grey cloth on the raw materials?

? ? ? On the surface, the excessive amount of grey fabric in society has a drag on the start-up and price of weaving, polyester, and even PTA and glycol. Of course, it is generally based on the general weaving orders and the decline of polyester filament price. Once the middlemen have intensive and large amount of low-cost selling, it is extremely unfavorable to the whole chain. However, through communication with cloth merchants, if the second half of the year "gold, silver and ten" comes on schedule or the price of polyester yarn is firm, this part of grey cloth may be considered for digestion next year, and the impact on the market can be ignored for the time being.

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