Crude Oil PTA Falls Sharply, Polyester Staple Fiber Futures Weaken

Spot price: according to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic price of polyester staple fiber was 7206 yuan on August 20, down 1.26% from last week.

Futures market: on August 20, the price of pf2109 contract closed at 6896, down 2.02% from Monday's opening, and the settlement price was 6890 yuan; The turnover was 393575 hands; Position 49910, basis 310. Last week, domestic polyester industry chain futures fell sharply, PTA main fell 5.77%, glycol main fell 3.29%.

Analysis: 1. Under the double pressure of the strength of the US dollar and worries about economic recovery, the international crude oil price fell for five consecutive trading days last week, with the WTI New York crude oil CFD falling by 6.81%; 2. Affected by the sharp drop of crude oil, polyester production reduction and maintenance of several units completed or about to be completed last week, PTA trend is weak; 3. Last week, ethylene glycol continued to decline due to the sharp drop in energy prices, supply increase and downstream polyester joint production reduction; 4. Last week, the production and sales of pure polyester yarn were relatively balanced, the inventory was not much, the manufacturer's mentality was good, and the price of pure polyester yarn rose slightly; 5. Last week, due to the shortage of downstream weaving orders, international crude oil prices continued to fall, PTA, ethylene glycol prices were weak, and other factors, polyester staple fiber current goods were lower.

Forecast: at present, the number of maintenance and planned maintenance of polyester staple fiber plant is slowly increasing, and the industry is in a state of continuous loss. In addition, the price of polyester staple fiber has been continuously lowered in recent years, and the momentum of decline has been weakened. Short term polyester staple fiber may rebound at any time. Pay attention to the trend of crude oil and the change of demand.