"Quick Hand" Sharpening Sickle: Where Is The Bottom Of HK $1.4 Trillion Evaporated?

On August 26, express fell 9.16% again. The night before yesterday, the second quarter report of 2021 was released, and the company's loss was further expanded while the revenue increased.

In the second quarter of 2021, the revenue of express was 19.14 billion yuan, an increase of 48.8% year-on-year. However, after adjustment, the net loss was 4.77 billion yuan, an increase of 146.2% year-on-year. In the first half of 2021, the total revenue of express was 36.16 billion yuan, up 42.8% year on year. After adjustment, the net loss was 9.69 billion yuan, an increase of 54.2% year on year.

At the beginning of August, fast hand, which has been listed for half a year, has just ushered in the first batch of restricted shares to be lifted. However, investors and employees who have gained "freedom" for the first time have mixed feelings.

In February 2021, the stock price of the newly listed express once reached HK $417.80, but did not want to "go out and be the peak". As of the end of August 26, express had only HK $70.4 per share. In half a year, the market value of fast hand has evaporated by more than 1.4 trillion Hong Kong dollars.

In the context of the decline in the Internet sector and the revaluation of technology stocks, the wealth feast originally expected to be shared by fast-moving investors and employees has shrunk significantly compared with the high point, and the market's attitude towards its share price is also long and short.

"The investment institutions participating in the pre IPO still make money. The cornerstone investors are completely covered, and they are too expensive to buy." A senior investor in South China told the 21st century economic reporter.

Many express employees also lamented on the intranet and major social platforms that the fast hand with the halo of "China's first short video" has become a typical epitome of the restructuring of technology stocks.

It's hard for the stock price to bear its weight

It is hard to see the end of the fast money burning mode.

In the second quarter report just released, although the revenue growth rate of fast hand was slightly higher than the market expectation, the fast hand, which was in the mire of huge losses, did not get good results after the continuous high amount of marketing investment, and the development of new business such as live broadcast also encountered bottlenecks.

After spending 11.66 billion yuan on marketing schedule for Spring Festival in the first quarter, fast hand again invested 11.27 billion yuan in the second quarter. In terms of costs and expenses, this expenditure accounted for 58.9% of the total revenue.

However, the high marketing expenses did not play a role in boosting the user activity. The latest data at the end of the second quarter showed that the average daily active users of kuaihou were 293.2 million, lower than 295.3 million in the first quarter; The average monthly active users were 506 million, down more than 10 million from 518.8 million in the first quarter.

At the same time, the company's live broadcasting business income also declined, with a year-on-year decrease of 13.7% to 7.2 billion yuan in this quarter. Although the revenue from other services, including e-commerce, increased by 212.9% year-on-year, its proportion in the total revenue was still low, only 2 billion yuan in the second quarter of 2021.

"Shuo Yin's rihuo has already broken through 600 million, and its fast-moving users have been hovering around the 300 million level. Now the content of short video platforms is seriously homogenized, and has developed to a position close to the top of the industry. Kuaiyin should have innovative products and services, and constantly burn money to ensure that the gap between itself and chattering is not expanded, which is difficult to sustain." a_private_equity_partner_in_shanghai_said_in_an_interview_ ._

And on the stock price caused more pressure is, on August 5, fast hand ushered in the amount of lifting the ban. According to the document disclosure, fast hand had 3.882 billion shares lifted on that day, accounting for 94.81% of the share capital after the issuance.

Among them, the founders Suhua and reach best hold 11.8%, while the founders Cheng Yixiao and Ke Yong hold 9.36%; In addition to the above controlling shareholders, most of the existing shareholders and the ESOP hold 2.861 billion restricted shares, accounting for 69.64% of the total share capital of the company.

In addition, 165 million shares (4.02% of the total equity of fast hands) held by 10 cornerstone investors, including US trillion asset management giant capital group, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (adia), Singapore sovereign fund GIC, cppib, BlackRock, Temasek, Jingshun holdings, Fidelity International and Blackstone, were all lifted on the same day.

"All beings" behind the "slump"

However, different from the "high spirited" in the initial listing, many investors and employees are worried about the declining trend after listing.

On February 5, 2021, the first day of fast hand's listing can be described as amazing performance, with the highest share price of HK $345, turnover rate of 3.59%, turnover of 120 million shares and turnover of HK $37.547 billion. Both the volume, turnover and turnover rate have become the highest points in the history of express.

Further, the initial public offering of express is 365 million shares, of which 165 million shares are subscribed by cornerstone investors, accounting for 45%. The lock-in period is six months, and the remaining 55% of the shares will be circulated in the secondary market. On February 5, the trading volume has accounted for 60% of the circulating shares, that is, more than half of the circulating shares have changed hands once.

On February 16, only six trading days after the listing, the stock price was pulled to a high of HK $417.8, with a total market value of HK $1.7 trillion. However, the good times are not long. Since March, the stock price of fast hand has gradually begun to decline and fall below the issue price. By the end of August 26, the stock price of express was 38.78% lower than its offering price and 493% lower than its peak.

Earlier, all the cornerstone investors who participated in the fast track public offering were locked in, and the mentality of institutional investors who bought in the primary market and a number of employees of fast track also changed.

"The market is not good now, so we can live on it." An institutional investor, who once subscribed for fast stock, lamented to the reporter of the 21st century economic report.

And the employees who had many expectations for the quick stock price had to "change" their home purchase plan.

"A few years ago, a colleague went to fast track, and the stock was issued 20000 yuan. Later, the stock rose to more than 400 Hong Kong dollars per share. At that time, he was planning to buy a house in Rongze Jiayuan after the ban was lifted." An Internet employee lamented that, however, now, it may be necessary to "change the whole payment into down payment".

On August 6, the second day after the lifting of the ban on restricted shares, in the face of falling stock prices, fast hand daily pushed a message on official wechat, responding to recent stock price shocks in the form of a song sheet: friends, calm down, face, irrationality, shock, rise and fall, do nothing, tomorrow will be better, and it mentions long-term doctrine with 987 "long" words, Try to boost investor confidence.

However, it was also on that day that a fast-moving employee posted a post saying that "all stocks have been sold". As for the future expectation of express, he said, "listing is the peak, and keeping the issue price is OK.".

Technology stocks or value revaluation?

In fact, the situation of fast hands is only a microcosm of the current valuation changes of China's technology stocks.

"On the one hand, there is a certain valuation bubble in express, and its commercialization ability is relatively weak, so it needs to shrink. But on the other hand, the industry environment is also more severe. In addition, the Hong Kong stock market is also in a shock period, with more capital outflow from the market, and Internet companies are hard to escape. " Zhang Xiaorong, President of the Institute of deep science and technology, thinks.

Since this year, the Hang Seng technology index and the China Internet index have fallen by 24.79% and 36.50% respectively. Among them, Tencent holdings, Alibaba (Hong Kong shares) and meituan also fell by 16.12%, 30.27% and 23.01% respectively, down 39.04%, 39.79% and 50.70% from the peak in the year.

Chen Gang, a licensed representative of Eide securities futures, told the 21st century economic reporter that from January to the middle of February this year, funds flowed southward, and the stock prices of new economy companies rose sharply. However, since the year of the ox, the capital going south has been greatly reduced, and the share prices of new economy companies, which are typical of technology companies and consumer companies, bear the brunt“ In fact, when technology companies disclosed their financial statements in the first quarter of this year, their performance could no longer match the overvalued value at that time. ". He said.

In addition, Internet giants are also constantly facing huge regulatory pressure.

"Since the fourth quarter of 2020, antitrust has been running through the present. Whether Alibaba was initially investigated by the General Administration of market supervision and administration, or the "nine prohibitions" of community group buying, all brought a lot of pressure to the Internet giants. "So is the fast hand of" China's first short video stock. " Chen added.

In July this year, the state Internet Information Office issued the measures for network security review (Draft for comments on the revised draft), which stipulates that operators who have more than one million users' personal information must apply for network security review when they go abroad for listing.

Cai Zhifeng, managing partner of PwC's media industry in mainland China, points out that from the current market situation, the valuation changes and adjustments of concept stocks in the digital new media industry of both Hong Kong and US stocks are relatively large, "especially in the recent anti-monopoly investigation, some platform enterprises also need to be subject to compliance inspection, More or less, these enterprises will have uncertainties, because these uncertainties will also make market investors take a wait-and-see attitude.

Will Chinese Internet companies usher in valuation restructuring? In the interview process of the 21st century economic reporter, it is found that there are big differences in the market.

Chen Gang believes that strong supervision is to let related enterprises do something and do nothing, so that the industry and enterprise behavior will be more healthy and standardized“ In the short term, there may be some pressure on the industry and enterprises, but in the long run, it is conducive to the healthy and orderly development of the industry. "

Chen Gang pointed out that "combined with the sharp decline in the short term before, it can be seen that the current technology companies are mainly affected by the policy. But at the same time, with the basic control of the epidemic, the return of monetary policy to the normal and the return of anti-monopoly to the normal, Internet enterprises will also have the differentiation of performance, stock price trend and valuation due to different business.

Zhang Xiaorong believes that the industry has entered an uncertain period of development, and the era of high light for Internet companies has come to an end. "Although the logic of industry valuation is facing adjustment, it is not clear whether there will be subversive changes, which needs to be observed.".

Cai Zhifeng also said, "after the framework of the industry is more perfect, the market will gradually digest the fluctuations in the early stage, or will it return to the fundamental changes.".

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