Reconstruction Of Power System After Investigation Of Power Rationing To Guard Against Radical Thinking

? ? ? ? Cao Enhui, researcher of new energy research group of 21st century economic report, Qi Yu, special researcher of Peng Qiang, Shanghai and Beijing report

? ? ? ? Without notice, the water and power supply were cut off without notice, and the elevators in the corridor stopped suddenly. A series of sudden changes made the residents in Northeast China wake up from the "freedom of electricity use" for more than ten years. Before winter comes, the orderly use of electricity in many provinces across the country has made people feel chilly ahead of time.

According to CCTV news reports, Liaoyang Municipal Party Committee Propaganda Department confirmed that a major safety accident occurred in the city on September 24. Although this is only an extreme event in this round of "power rationing", it also reflects that the power supply situation is facing a more severe situation.

After the power rationing in some provinces in the first half of this year, the central authorities successively issued signals in July and August asking all localities to correct the "sports carbon reduction" and resolutely curb the blind development of the "two high-tech" projects.

? ? ? ? However, in late September, "power rationing" still spread throughout the country, and some places even extended the power rationing to residents. Although the signing meeting of medium and long-term coal contracts of 14 provinces, autonomous regions and cities in Shanxi Province was held on September 29, the power consumption pressure in October is still quite large.

Behind these phenomena, there are many questions to be solved: how serious is power rationing in all parts of the country? Why is industrial production still intensified in the off-season? What industries have been affected by the power rationing measures since this year? Why can't the contradiction of electricity be solved

It is one-sided to simply attribute this round of "power rationing" to "dual control of energy consumption" and even "restriction of low-end production capacity". To answer these questions, we should not only analyze the domestic and international energy supply markets, but also go deep into China's industrial structure in the post epidemic era.

The new energy research group of 21st century economic report believes that to solve these problems, we need to establish a long-term safer and cleaner energy supply structure, a more market-oriented electricity trading system, and promote more energy-efficient industrial restructuring.

1、 Why did the "switch off and limit electricity" attack

Starting from the end of August, several major energy consuming provinces launched a large-scale power and production restriction action. The "double control of energy consumption" and the power rationing and production restriction in various regions are not sudden. From all aspects of data, this year's economic growth, electricity consumption, carbon emission requirements, etc., all foreshadowed the tightening of power supply and the increasing pressure of dual control of energy consumption at the end of the year, which led to power rationing.

1. The growth rate of power supply is insufficient

From January to August this year, domestic power demand grew rapidly, and the growth rate of domestic power production and coal supply was less than that of demand.

According to the national energy administration, from January to August this year, the total electricity consumption of the whole society reached 5.47 trillion kwh, an increase of 13.8% year-on-year; Among them, the power consumption of the secondary industry reached 3.65 trillion kwh, accounting for 66% of the total electricity consumption, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.1%.

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to August this year, domestic power generation reached 5.39 trillion kilowatt hours, an increase of 11.3% over the same period of last year. However, the growth rate of electric power production in August has obviously slowed down. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of thermal power was only 0.3%, hydropower decreased by 4.7%, wind power increased by 7%, and nuclear power increased by 10.2%.

According to the report issued by China Electric Power Enterprises Federation in July, the overall balance of power supply and demand in the first half of the year has been found in some parts of the country. In January, affected by the cold wave and other weather, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui and other places appeared power shortage. In the second quarter, Mengxi, Guangdong, Yunnan and Guangxi took measures to respond to demand and orderly use electricity. Among them, Guangdong, Yunnan power supply is particularly tight.

At that time, China Power Grid predicted that the overall power supply and demand in the second half of the year would remain balanced, but the situation of power supply shortage would increase compared with the previous year.

As for coal power, which is the main force of stable power supply, the supply and demand of coal market is tight and the price is soaring, which restricts the coal power supply.

Since this year, affected by multiple factors such as the limited release of domestic coal production capacity and the limited increment of imported coal, the supply of power coal continues to be tight. In the second half of the year, coal prices have been rising all the way, and coal and power enterprises' inventory is low, and the operating pressure of power coal enterprises is further increased.

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to August this year, domestic raw coal production was 2.6 billion tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.4%, which was mainly driven by the high growth rate from January to February. Since March this year, the monthly production of domestic raw coal has mostly maintained a year-on-year decline trend, with only a small increase in May and August.

At present, it is in the off-season of coal consumption in the traditional sense, but the market is showing an extremely hot situation. At present, the main contract price of steam coal futures has exceeded the mark of 1300 yuan / ton, and the actual market price is about 1600 yuan / ton, while in the same period of previous years, the price was only 500-600 yuan / ton. The increase was about 300%.

The high coal price will push the thermal power plant into the loss position rapidly, and the power generation willingness is insufficient. Whether it is through the long-term association, or enterprises actively reduce prices and other means, it is difficult to change the fact that there is less coal circulating in the market.

Since this summer, the peak of electricity consumption brought about by high temperature and the strong export (China's total export value increased by 23.7% year-on-year from January to August) have stimulated the growth of electricity demand.

2. Dual control of energy consumption

Power restriction and production restriction are not uncommon in many industries. For example, after the rapid production in the first half of the year, many iron and steel industries began to implement the production restriction policy in July under the greater pressure of output control. In terms of cement building materials, due to environmental protection, energy consumption and other factors, peak load shifting has been carried out.

However, since late August, the national development and Reform Commission has named several provinces and autonomous regions that have failed to meet the energy consumption double control standards and made early warning. Since then, energy consumption dual control work in the region, began to implement power rationing and production restriction at the end of the third quarter, trying to sprint to achieve the target.

At present, the main industries involved in dual control of energy consumption include chemical industry, steel industry, nonferrous metal industry, cement building materials industry, coal power industry, etc., involving more than ten provinces and regions with large energy consumption.

According to the calculation of the research department of CICC, the provinces whose energy consumption intensity did not meet the standard in the first half of the year accounted for about 70% of China's industrial added value, of which the first level early warning and the second level early warning accounted for about 38% and 32% respectively.

However, the "energy consumption double control" is not the only reason for the power limit and switching. For Liaoning Province, Jilin Province and Heilongjiang Province, the growth of electricity consumption, the shortage of electric coal and the shortage of new energy power generation have led to the shortage of local power supply, which has led to a large range of power rationing and production stoppage in Northeast China.

The heating season is about to start. In the traditional peak season of consumption, the coal market as a whole is expected to remain strong even though both supply and demand sides of the coal market have not changed significantly.

2、 Power limiting effect

From factory shutdown to elevator outage, the impact of "power cut" has penetrated into residents' lives by industrial production. For a time, more than 20 A-share related listed companies have been in a hurry, announcing the restricted radio and. However, it is sad that this round of power rationing has once triggered the "power Carnival" in the capital market.

1. The power market fluctuates violently

Due to the tight power supply, after the implementation of the power restriction and production restriction of industrial enterprises, the power consumption of residents in many areas has also been affected. In areas where the energy-saving situation is more severe in China, strict control of air-conditioning power consumption and optimization of lighting power consumption have emerged.

In the three provinces of Northeast China, there are many cases of sudden power failure without notice. In some areas, even to the point of elevator outage, traffic light stoppage and water cut-off. In addition to power rationing and production restriction by industrial enterprises, shopping malls in some areas were closed earlier than 4:00 p.m., all the lighting of buildings were turned off, and the street lights were turned down at night.

Since June this year, Guangdong, Shaanxi, Zhejiang, Guangxi and other places have adjusted the local peak valley electricity prices.

But on the whole, the adjustment of peak and valley electricity price reduces the operation cost of power grid enterprises to a certain extent, and also realizes the "peak load shifting and valley filling" in the process of power utilization. However, for thermal power enterprises, the high cost of natural gas and coal high price, peak valley price adjustment is still a drop in the bucket.

In the field of industrial manufacturing, large-scale power and production restrictions continue to affect many industries. Paradoxically, supply and demand are intertwined with each other, forming a strange circle to some extent.

In the photovoltaic industry, the dual control of energy consumption further aggravates the mismatch between supply and demand in the upstream and downstream of the photovoltaic industry, and the supply of silicon materials is in short supply, thus contributing to the trend of higher overall prices. Downstream demand plays a supporting role in the current high price of silicon materials, while the promotion of energy consumption dual control has a certain impact on the output of silicon materials, further limiting the supply.

In the cement industry, due to the rising coal price and the policy of restricting production in many places, the product price has risen sharply in the short term. In the iron and steel industry, since the second half of the year, under the implementation of the production restriction policy, the steel price remained at a relatively high level; On this basis, the dual control of energy consumption in many places further limits the steel production and enhances the expectation of production reduction.

Near the end of the traditional peak season, the steel market consumption is weak, the social inventory keeps the pace of de stocking, the overall market presents a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the production reduction policy dominates the market. The production restriction of steel enterprises directly weakens the market demand of iron ore, and the price also plummets.

Since late July, iron ore prices have continued to decline. At present, the main domestic iron ore futures prices have fallen below 700 yuan / ton, reaching a high of 1358 yuan / ton in May this year.

2. "Ice and fire" in capital market

From the beginning of August, the A-share power sector began to climb continuously. On July 28, the index was at a low level of 1107, and on September 28, it reached a peak of 1600. During the same period, the coal mining and processing sector also began to rise significantly. On August 3, the index was 1498.48, and on September 16, the highest rose to 2483.68. Recently, it has dropped to about 2100.

Dozens of Listed Companies in various industries have announced production suspension and production restriction. According to the incomplete statistics of the new energy research group of the 21st century economic report, as of September 27, 23 listed companies have issued relevant announcements on power rationing and shutdown. Mona Lisa (002918. SZ), a ceramic manufacturer in Guangxi, was the first to announce the impact.

On September 14, Mona Lisa announced that six production lines of guimeng company, a holding subsidiary, were forced to stop production of building ceramics with a total capacity of 150000 square meters per day. The remaining production line (with a production capacity of 25000 square meters / day of building ceramics) was also in an abnormal state of low load operation and faced with the risk of shutdown; The four production lines originally planned to start in the second half of the year may not be able to be built and put into operation as scheduled.

Since then, many listed companies, such as DIO home (002798. SZ), Chenhua Co., Ltd. (300610. SZ), Zhongnong United (003042. SZ), Youcai resources (002998. SZ), Limin shares (002734. SZ), Runfeng shares (301035. SZ) and other listed companies all said that the limited film impact, production will be affected to varying degrees.

With the continuous expansion of the scope of power rationing, as many as 10 listed companies announced the impact of power rationing on September 27; Among them, peach and plum bread (603866. SH) production news even rushed hot search.

It has been disclosed that nine wholly-owned subsidiaries of Taoli bread, which are located in Jiangsu, Guangdong, Jilin, Liaoning, Shandong, Tianjin and Heilongjiang, have received power restriction notices from the local government, and have carried out power rationing or even stopping production.

The Research Report of CICC pointed out that from the perspective of specific industries, the industries that are greatly affected by the dual control policy of energy consumption include but are not limited to the four major industries of steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement and chemical fiber. The main characteristics of these industries are high power consumption and high carbon emission. The measures taken include direct shutdown of production, reduction of production capacity (20% - 90%), off peak production, power rationing in different periods, and so on Cut down the electricity use preferential treatment and so on.

3、 Global "expensive winter"

This round of "power rationing" is not only in China. In fact, the world is ushering in an "expensive winter".

In recent years, most of the major economies are promoting the transformation of energy structure. However, as progress has been made in this area in Europe and the United States, pains will follow.

1. The prices of coal and natural gas in Europe and the United States have skyrocketed, and electricity prices have soared

According to data provided by wind, the price of international steam coal has increased several times in the past year. As of September 24, spot prices of thermal coal in ara port in Europe, Richard Rb in South Africa and NEWC in Newcastle, Australia were 185.68 US dollars / ton, 161.15 dollars / ton and 188.72 US dollars / ton, respectively, which were 249.68%, 172.90% and 215.37% higher than a year ago.

At the same time, natural gas prices in Europe and the United States are constantly setting new record highs. As of September 24, the price of European natural gas futures has soared from 8 pounds per megawatt hour in May 2020 to about 200 pounds, an increase of nearly 25 times. On September 27, US NYMEX 10 natural gas futures closed up 11.01% to US $5.7060/million BTU, setting a new high since February 2014; Ice UK natural gas futures closed 8.20% higher at 190.39p/kcal, reaching an intraday high of 193.23p, close to the record high on September 15.

With the soaring prices of coal and natural gas, electricity prices in European and American countries have also entered the fast track of rising. According to the data of the US Energy Information Agency (EIA), electricity prices in Italy, Spain, Germany and France increased by 166%, 167%, 170% and 134% respectively compared with a year ago; Over the same period, the electricity consumption of American residents reached 13.9 cents per kilowatt hour, a record high.

On the trend of natural gas prices, Goldman Sachs analyst Samantha dart said that if the winter in Europe is colder than expected, then Europe may need to compete with Asia for LNG supply. It expects further gains at the end of this year and early next year, as winter temperatures are colder than ever.

This in turn will affect the supply and price of oil and gas markets in Asia, including China.

2. Challenges to the stability of energy structure in Europe and the United States

Under the global low-carbon action, thermal power is gradually abandoned in Europe, which is in the forefront of environmental protection. For example, in Spain and the United Kingdom, thermal power accounts for only 4% and 2%. This is related to the continuous promotion of energy structure transformation in Europe and the United States in recent years.

According to the world energy statistical yearbook released by BP, in the past two years, European and American countries have greatly improved the green degree of their energy structure. For example, in Europe, the overall power structure has formed a pattern in which nuclear power, renewable energy and natural gas power generation account for the top three. In addition, according to the data of the energy information agency (EIA), in 2020, the proportion of renewable energy development (including hydropower) in Europe (including the United Kingdom) is close to 40%, that of natural gas power generation is about 20%, and that of coal power generation is less than 15%.

However, due to extreme weather such as extreme high pressure and large-scale drought this year, the wind and hydroelectric power generation capacity developed by Europe has dropped sharply in the year. In Europe, its share of wind power fell to less than 11% in July from 17% at the beginning of the year. And in June this year, the overall share of wind power in Europe fell below 9%, almost back to the same period in 2019.

The outside world generally attributed the "power shortage" in Europe and the United States to the extreme climate leading to the "shutdown" of some renewable energy power generation. As a result, the demand for natural gas and thermal power surged. According to the third quarter energy report released by the International Energy Agency (IEA), global natural gas demand will increase by 3.2% this year and will continue to increase in the next few years.

However, it is an objective fact that before and after the epidemic, the enthusiasm for oil and gas exploration and production in the world has been cooling down, and the production capacity reserve has been declining. According to the report on the development of oil and gas industry at home and abroad in 2020 issued by the China Academy of Petroleum Economics and technology, 179 oil and gas discoveries were made in the world last year, and the newly discovered oil and gas reserves were 1.95 billion tons of oil equivalent, a sharp decrease of 30% over the same period of the same period last year; The new reserves of natural gas decreased by 43% year-on-year. The global natural gas production was only 4 trillion cubic meters, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%.

With the fluctuation of renewable energy supply, the dependence of European region on natural gas is increasing. Up to now, the United States and Russia are the main exporting countries of European natural gas. But now, the two big exporters are lowering their production expectations. At the end of August, US natural gas exports were hit hard by Hurricane IDA; Russia recently predicted that the natural gas production in 2021 will be 75.88 billion cubic meters, while the natural gas production forecast in 2022 will be lowered.

4、 Pay great attention to the supply side

In fact, both Europe and the United States, or China, the current common problem is the shortage of power supply. Although in the analysis of the current round of domestic power shortage, it is inevitable to talk about the growth rate of China's social production electricity demand since the epidemic. However, industry insiders also pointed out that in 2018, when the annual growth rate of electricity consumption was as high as 8.5%, there was no large-scale power rationing.

1. Coal supply is tight

As a country rich in coal, less gas and poor in oil, although China is constantly increasing the transformation of energy structure in recent years, in the current power structure, thermal power is still the core source of power supply.

According to the data of the 2021 edition of BP world energy statistical yearbook, coal power generation accounted for 63% of China's power structure last year, 15% and 2% lower than that in 2018 and 2019, respectively; Hydropower is the second largest power generation energy, accounting for 17%; The proportion of renewable energy generation represented by wind power and photovoltaic has increased to 11%, which is 9.7% and 1.1% higher than that in 2018 and 2019, respectively. In addition, nuclear power and natural gas have maintained a relatively stable proportion of power generation in the past two years, with the proportion of 4.7% and 3.2% respectively in 2020.

The current power structure determines that coal supply is still the core of power supply side.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, from January to August this year, China produced 2.597 billion tons of raw coal, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%; Imported coal was 198 million tons, down 10.3% year on year. Among them, 335 million tons of raw coal were produced in August, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.8% from a decrease of 3.3% in the previous month; The import of coal was 28.05 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 35.8%.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, domestic coal production and imports have improved since August. However, the release of coal production needs a process.

Undeniably, China's coal production capacity is in a downward cycle in recent years. Especially since July this year, the mismatch between domestic coal supply and demand has become more and more serious.

On the demand side, with the recovery of post epidemic economy, China's industrial production shows a strong momentum of development. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in the first half of this year, China's industrial added value growth and capacity utilization rate were higher than those in the same period of previous years. In addition, the electricity demand is better, and the cumulative electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 13.8% from January to August. Among them, the electricity consumption of the secondary industry, which accounts for 2 / 3 of the total social electricity consumption, has increased by 13.1%, which is the core reason for the high growth of the whole society's electricity consumption.

On the supply side, on the one hand, domestic coal production capacity is in the background of cyclical decline, and on the other hand, affected by international relations and overseas epidemic situation, China's coal imports from Mongolia and Australia have decreased this year. Under the superposition of various factors, the domestic coal inventory is under certain pressure.

Wind data shows that in terms of major ports, the coal inventory of Qinhuangdao Port declined as a whole, and the inventory was once as low as 3.52 million tons in the first ten days of September; The coal inventory of national key power plants has continued to decline since this year, and the inventory in August has dropped to 48.9 million tons.

2. Hydro power output declines

In the current power structure of China, hydropower is still the second largest power energy. But since this year, the growth rate of hydropower generation has declined.

According to the National Bureau of statistics. From January to August this year, China's hydropower generation capacity above designated scale was about 761.71 billion kwh, a year-on-year decrease of 1%. Among them, North China, Northeast China and East China, which account for less power generation, maintain the growth of hydropower generation, while the main hydropower provinces in Central South, southwest and Northwest China show a decline in power generation.

Affected by the climate such as drought, the hydropower generation in central and southern China, Southwest China and Northwest China from January to August this year was 181.8 billion kwh, 448.29 billion kWh and 77.51 billion kwh, respectively. Among them, the power generation of key hydropower provinces all shrank: the hydropower generation capacity of Hubei Province was 96.67 billion kwh, down 5.8% year on year; The hydropower generation in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region was 34.26 billion kwh, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%; The hydropower generation capacity of Sichuan Province was 19.39 billion kwh, down 4.6% year on year.

It is worth mentioning that since 2015, the newly installed hydropower generation capacity in China has been on a downward trend as a whole. In 2020, China's hydropower generation capacity will increase several times to 13.23 million kilowatts, with a year-on-year increase of 217.3%. However, this high growth is due to the commissioning of the first batch of units of Wudongde Hydropower Station on the Jinsha River with a total installed capacity of 10.2 million kilowatts.

3. Wind power, photovoltaic and other new energy resources are not yet up to the task

With the promotion of the dual carbon target, the capacity of wind power, photovoltaic and other new energy is expanding, and the proportion of power generation continues to increase. According to the data of the national energy administration, in 2020, the proportion of cumulative wind power and photovoltaic power generation in China will increase by 0.9 percentage points to 9.5% year-on-year, accounting for about 9.6% of the total social power consumption. The goal set by the national energy administration is that the proportion of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in the power consumption of the whole society will reach about 11% in 2021 and 16.5% in 2025.

On the whole, with the increase of the proportion of photovoltaic and wind power generation, many provinces rich in scenic resources also begin to rely on wind power and photovoltaic. However, in the year of frequent extreme weather this year, the stability of wind power and photovoltaic power generation is facing challenges.

The sudden decrease of wind power is also considered to be one of the reasons behind the rare residential power cut-off in Northeast China. According to the Liaoning Daily, the power supply gap further increased to a serious level from September 23 to 25 due to the sudden decrease of wind power and other reasons, according to the Liaoning Daily.

Guotai Junan believes that "from the perspective of China's current power generation structure, the dependence on thermal power is still relatively serious, and wind power and photovoltaic have failed to contribute their due output." according to the analysis of the agency, although China's current wind power and photovoltaic installed capacity has reached 24%, the current output only accounts for about 10% of the power generation, indicating that China's dependence on thermal power is relatively serious, The installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power is out of proportion to its power generation, which fails to contribute to their due output. From the perspective of power generation growth rate, wind power output increased significantly, reaching 44.7% year-on-year, while the growth rate of photovoltaic power generation was still relatively low, only 9.7%. On the contrary, the growth rate of thermal power, which accounted for a declining proportion of installed capacity, reached 16.1%. This shows that the power generation structure is not proportional to the trend, which poses a great challenge to the overall power supply.

It is worth mentioning that in the process of large-scale development, the stability of wind power and photovoltaic power, which are greatly affected by the natural environment, has always been a key issue. Therefore, the research on energy storage and UHV technology closely related to new energy generation needs to be improved to eliminate the contradiction between the rapid development of new energy and the mismatch of supporting infrastructure.

5、 Reflection on "tripping" of energy structure

In the past decade, there have been three large-scale local power rationing in China.

In 2010, the year of the end of the 11th five year plan, many provinces began to implement the "power cut-off and power restriction" in may under the constraint of the energy consumption intensity target. Subsequently, due to the impact on the economic production order, it was basically suspended in October of that year.

In the fourth quarter of 2020, Zhejiang, Hunan, Jiangxi and Inner Mongolia have successively issued power rationing measures to cope with periodic power supply shortage.

This time, which started in May 2021 and is still in the third wave of electricity restriction, its impact is still expanding.

Different from the previous two rounds, the reason for this round's power rationing directly refers to the "tripping" phenomenon of the current energy structure itself.

China is ushering in the "fast pace" period of energy structure transformation. In the process of power system reconstruction, the following issues should be paid attention to in order to alleviate the "power shortage" and prevent power cut-off and power restriction when the power system is undergoing a smooth transition from traditional energy to clean energy.

1. It is still necessary to stabilize the thermal power supply in the next few years

The key factor of this round of power rationing lies in the supply side, and China's social electricity demand will maintain a certain growth rate in the next few years.

China's 2030 energy and power development planning research and prospect for 2060 released by the global energy Internet Development Cooperation Organization predicts that in 2025 and 2030, China's social power consumption will increase from 7.5 trillion kwh in 2020 to 9.2 trillion and 10.7 trillion kwh. The report further estimates the growth rate of demand - from 2020 to 2025, the average annual growth rate of China's social electricity consumption is about 4.2%; From 2025 to 2030, the average annual growth rate of electricity consumption will be about 3%; From 2030 to 2050 and 2050 to 2060, the average annual growth rate of electricity consumption will drop to 2% and 0.6%.

On this basis, Guotai Junan estimates that in the future, with the limitation of carbon neutral on coal production capacity and the decrease of the growth rate of new thermal power installed capacity, the growth rate of thermal power generation will decrease from 5.6% in 2021 to 1.3% in 2025; The new installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic continues to increase, and its annual power generation growth rate will maintain at more than 10%.

However, in such a transformation of power structure, China's power supply growth rate will continue to be lower than the growth rate of power demand, there is a certain gap between supply and demand. In the whole conversion process, the stability of thermal power supply will also affect the smooth transition of power structure in the next few years.

2. Avoid "one size fits all" carbon reduction

This round of power rationing is set in a larger background: "energy consumption double control target assessment". In order to complete the double control assessment, many places switch on and limit electricity. In some places, because they were interviewed, they held meetings all night to "make unified arrangements" and cut off electricity. However, "energy consumption double control target assessment" is not the fundamental reason for this wheel to switch off and limit electricity.

"Dual control of energy consumption" is an old policy implemented for many years. Since 2006, energy consumption intensity has been regarded as a constraint index in China, and energy consumption dual control assessment has been implemented since 2011. The 12th Five year plan takes the reduction of energy consumption per unit GDP as a constraint index, and puts forward the requirements of reasonable control of total energy consumption; According to the 13th five year plan, by 2020, energy consumption per unit GDP will be reduced by 15% compared with 2015, and the total energy consumption will be less than 5 billion tons of standard coal.

As mentioned above, in 2010, when the "Eleventh Five Year Plan" ended, many provinces in China also experienced the phenomenon of "switching off and limiting power" under the constraint of energy consumption intensity target. As a result, the social production and economic order will be affected, which is a lesson from the past.

Although "dual control of energy consumption" is a rigid requirement and carbon reduction is the general trend, the "Sports" carbon reduction will do great harm to the economy and social life, and even outweigh the loss.

It is worth noting that the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee made a clear statement at the meeting on July 30 of some deviations in the work of carbon peak. According to the meeting, it is required to do a good job in carbon peak and carbon neutralization in an overall way, issue an action plan for reaching the carbon peak before 2030 as soon as possible, adhere to the whole country's one board game, correct the sports "carbon reduction", set up first and then break down, resolutely curb the blind development of the "two high-tech" projects, and do a good job in the summer guarantee of peak load.

3. Reconstruct the power system and guard against radical thinking

At present, under the guidance of "double carbon" goal, China's power structure is undergoing positive transformation. According to the data of the 2021 edition of BP world energy statistical yearbook, from 2009 to 2020, China's power structure is undergoing significant changes. In 2009, China's coal power generation accounted for 78%, hydropower accounted for 17%, and wind power, photovoltaic and other renewable energy accounted for 1.3%; In 2020, the proportion of coal-fired power generation will drop to 63%, the proportion of renewable energy such as wind power and photovoltaic power will rise to 11%, and the proportion of hydropower will remain unchanged.

Changes in this set of data show that in the past decade, the proportion of coal and renewable energy power generation has dominated the process of power restructuring.

However, a realistic problem is that in the current power structure transformation, we still need to face up to the status of thermal power.

Wind data shows that in 2020, China's installed power generation structure accounts for 56.6% of thermal power, 24% of wind power and photovoltaic power. However, it is obvious that 56.6% of the installed capacity of thermal power corresponds to 63% of the power generation, while the 24% of the total installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic only corresponds to 11% of the power generation. This means that while China is vigorously developing new energy, new energy power generation can not bear the leading responsibility of the current power structure supply.

4. Accelerate the development of energy storage and UHV technology

What is worth affirming is that after decades of development, the cost of wind power and photovoltaic power generation technology in China has dropped significantly, and the era of low-cost access to the Internet is gradually approaching.

Whether from the perspective of resource acquisition or power generation potential, new energy will be the best choice to dominate the world energy structure in the future. However, with the increase of the installed capacity of power generation, how to maintain the stability of new energy power generation and avoid the phenomenon of disorderly off grid is also a problem that needs to be solved together in vigorously developing new energy.

As a matter of fact, there are lessons learned in this respect. On August 9, 2019, a blackout occurred in the UK power grid, which concentrated in England and Wales, and about 1 million people were affected by the blackout.

According to the data, in 2019, the proportion of renewable energy such as wind power and photovoltaic in the UK has risen to 35%. The cause of the accident is that a large number of offshore wind power and distributed photovoltaic power grid in the UK power grid are out of order, which causes the system frequency to drop to 48.9 Hz, which leads to the action of load shedding devices in the system at medium and low frequencies and cuts off a large number of loads. According to the information at that time, the penetration rate of wind power in Britain had reached 34.71% at the time of the accident. In this blackout, the output of pumped storage unit was increased in time to prevent the accident from further expanding.

From the blackout accidents of British power grid, it is not difficult to find that wind power and photovoltaic power generation have random risks, that is, they are greatly affected by weather and climate.

Guotai Junan pointed out that energy storage technology can effectively adjust the changes of grid voltage, frequency and phase caused by new energy power generation, and to a large extent solve the problems of randomness and volatility of new energy power generation, and can achieve smooth output of new energy power generation; In addition, UHV technology can transport the resources in the enrichment area to the load center, and solve the problem of regional dislocation between resources and loads. Therefore, energy storage and UHV technology are worth developing.

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