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Key Points: The State Has Taken A Number Of Measures To Control Cotton Prices

2021/10/12 15:10:00 0

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After entering September, seed cotton picking began to appear sporadically in domestic cotton production areas, and the purchase was also carried out sporadically. Recently, Xinjiang's hand picked cotton has a high price on the market. The price in Bachu is 9.6 yuan / kg, while that in other Hami and Shaya areas is more than 10 yuan / kg, equivalent to nearly 20000 yuan / ton of lint cost. Cotton lint prices are usually slightly higher than other cotton prices. However, due to the increase of ginning plants this year, the market had expected that cotton weighing might lead to the possibility of grabbing cotton resources and supporting cotton prices. At present, it is less than half a month before the large-scale listing of cotton, so it is necessary to pay attention to the situation of seed cotton picking and purchasing in Xinjiang cotton region. The price of seed cotton will affect the cotton cost in 2021 / 22, which is the key factor of cotton price fluctuation in the future.

In late September, due to the influence of "double control", temporary stoppage and production restriction appeared in some areas. The disk of zhengmian was impacted to a certain extent, but the most important thing was the rush of new cotton, which constituted one of the most important factors affecting the recent trend of zhengmian. Last year's situation, the overall cotton production slightly reduced, coupled with the increase of new cotton processing lines, from September to October, cotton into the situation of rush harvest is inevitable. After the Mid Autumn Festival in late September, Xinjiang machine picked cotton began to be listed one after another, and the purchase price rose nearly 50% compared with last year. On September 29, with Zheng cotton futures breaking through 19000 yuan / ton, the purchase price of seed cotton in Xinjiang rose again. The purchase price of machine picked cotton in Northern Xinjiang rose to 9.7-9.8 yuan / kg, which was converted to 20000-21000 yuan / ton of lint price. The highest quotation of machine picked cotton in Xinjiang was 9.9 yuan / kg. According to 3 yuan / kg of cottonseed, the equivalent lint cost was 21000 yuan / ton. Cotton price rise far beyond the current textile enterprises bear capacity, market risk significantly increased. Before and after the national day does not rule out cotton purchase will have higher prices.

In terms of inventory, the current market supply of cotton is not too abundant, textile enterprises mainly through auction storage to replenish the warehouse. Due to the strong basis, the registered warehouse receipts of cotton also flowed out rapidly. As of September 28, 2021, 4399 cotton futures registered warehouse receipts. The number of warehouse receipts fell rapidly, at the lowest level in nearly four years. From the perspective of commercial inventory, the national cotton commercial inventory at the end of August was 1924700 tons, which continued to decrease by 578300 tons compared with the previous month, and decreased by 485100 tons on a year-on-year basis, which is at a low level in nearly five years.

At present, the cotton price is rising too fast, which has deviated from the supply and demand fundamentals, and the irrational sentiment is rising, and the market risk continues to accumulate. It is understood that the relevant departments are paying close attention to the situation of the cotton market in the new year, and will, according to the needs, take measures such as continuously arranging the central reserve cotton to put in, further strengthen the regulation and control, meet the actual cotton demand of cotton spinning enterprises, restrain excessive speculation and speculation in the market, and promote the smooth operation of the cotton market and the healthy development of the cotton textile industry.

It is also rumored that recently, the relevant departments will issue a batch of cotton import sliding tax quota, organize relevant enterprises to quickly import their own cotton from the domestic free trade zone and put it on the market in time to meet the cotton demand of cotton spinning enterprises. In the future, measures such as increasing the supply of reserve cotton will be taken to increase the supply of market resources and promote the smooth operation of the cotton market.

In October, the situation of new cotton rush collection is determined, and the current cotton inventory is operating at a low level, then the price of cotton futures in October will be in a high volatility situation. In addition, after the national day, consumption has been boosted, and the preparation of goods on November 11 will add new impetus to the industry.

The rush purchase of new cotton has boosted the rising trend in recent months. It is necessary to pay attention to the digestion capacity of the downstream in the later stage. However, according to the current demand analysis, the digestion capacity of more than 20000 cotton is limited. In addition, the inventory in the downstream is on the high side. After the National Day holiday, the national reserve may continue to sell. It is not expected that there will be a tense supply situation in the short term. Therefore, in the short term, the sharp rise of domestic cotton will have some convergence, but in the long run, we can still maintain multi-party thinking. The reason is that after the national reserve inventory is emptied, the domestic gap will be enlarged, and the U.S. inventory will be low, and the degree of dependence on imports will continue to increase.

At present, the supply is basically determined, and the recovery of later demand determines the height of price. Follow up needs to pay attention to the new cotton acquisition, downstream operating rate and macro changes.