National Bureau Of Statistics: CPI Rises In October 2021

The National Bureau of statistics released today the national CPI (consumer price index) and PPI (producer price index) data for October 2021. In this regard, Dong Lijuan, Senior Statistician of the city Department of the National Bureau of statistics, made an interpretation.

1. CPI rose

In October, CPI rose due to the combined influence of special weather, contradiction between supply and demand of some commodities and rising costs.

On a month on month basis, CPI rose 0.7% from flat last month. Among them, the food price decreased from 0.7% in the previous month to 1.7% higher, which affected the CPI rise by about 0.31%, mainly due to the rise in fresh vegetable prices. Affected by rainfall, crop rotation in summer and autumn, epidemic spread in some areas and increased production and transportation costs, the price of fresh vegetables rose by 16.6%, affecting the CPI to rise by about 0.34 percentage points, accounting for nearly 50% of the total increase; With the seasonal increase of consumer demand and the orderly development of the second round of central reserve pork collection and storage, pork prices have risen slightly since the middle of October, and the average monthly decline is still 2.0%, 3.1 percentage points lower than that of the previous month; Aquatic products and eggs were in sufficient supply, with prices falling by 2.3% and 2.2% respectively. Non food prices rose 0.4%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the previous month, affecting the CPI rise of about 0.35%. Among non food products, the price of industrial consumer goods rose by 0.9%, 0.6 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. The main reason is that the price of energy products has increased more. Among them, the price of gasoline and diesel increased by 4.7% and 5.2% respectively, which affected the CPI rise by about 0.15 percentage points, accounting for more than 20% of the total increase; Service prices rose 0.1%, the same increase as last month.

On a year-on-year basis, CPI rose by 1.5%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points over the previous month. Among them, food prices fell by 2.4%, 2.8 percentage points narrower than that of the previous month, which affected the CPI decline by about 0.45%. In food, the price of pork decreased by 44.0%, and the decline rate narrowed by 2.9%; Fresh vegetable prices increased by 15.9% from 2.5% in the previous month; The prices of freshwater fish, eggs and edible vegetable oil rose by 18.6%, 14.3% and 9.3% respectively. Non food prices rose by 2.4% and expanded by 0.4%, affecting the CPI to rise by about 1.97%. Among non food products, the price of industrial consumer goods increased by 3.8% and 1.0% respectively, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 32.2% and 35.7% respectively; Service prices rose by 1.4%, the same as last month.

It is estimated that among the 1.5% year-on-year increase in October, the tail effect of last year's price change was about 0.2 percentage points, which was 0.2% last month; The impact of the new price increase was about 1.3 percentage points, 0.6 percentage points larger than that of the previous month. Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 1.3% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage point higher than the previous month.

　 2. The increase of PPI increased

In October, affected by international import factors and tight supply of major domestic energy and raw materials, the rise of PPI expanded.

On a month on month basis, PPI rose by 2.5%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points over the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production rose by 3.3% and increased by 1.8%; The price of means of living increased from flat to 0.1%. The fluctuation of international crude oil price has driven up the price of domestic oil related industries. Among them, the price of oil exploitation industry increased by 7.1%, the price of chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry increased by 6.1%, the price of refined petroleum product manufacturing industry increased by 5.8%, and the price of chemical fiber manufacturing industry increased by 3.5%. The above four industries together affected PPI increase by about 0.76%. The price of coal mining and washing industry increased by 20.1% and the price of coal processing industry increased by 12.8%. The total impact on PPI was about 0.74%. The prices of some high energy consuming industries rose, the prices of non-metallic mineral products increased by 6.9%, the prices of nonferrous metal smelting and calendering industry increased by 3.6%, and the prices of ferrous metal smelting and calendering and processing industry increased by 3.5%. The above three industries together affected the PPI increase by about 0.81%. In addition, the price of gas production and supply industry increased by 1.3%, while the price of ferrous metal mining and dressing industry decreased by 8.9%.

On a year-on-year basis, PPI rose by 13.5%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points over the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production rose by 17.9%, with an increase of 3.7 percentage points; The price of means of living rose by 0.6% and the increase was increased by 0.2%. Of the 40 major industrial sectors surveyed, 36 had price increases, the same as last month. Among the major industries, the price of coal mining and washing industry increased by 103.7% and increased by 28.8%; The prices of petroleum and natural gas exploitation industry, petroleum coal and other fuel processing industry, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, chemical raw material and chemical products manufacturing industry, nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, chemical fiber manufacturing industry and non-metallic mineral products industry increased by 3.2-16.1 percentage points from 12.0% to 59.7%. The above eight industries affected PPI growth by 11.38 percentage points, more than 80% of the total increase.

It is estimated that among the 13.5% year-on-year increase of PPI in October, the tail effect of last year's price change was about 1.8 percentage points, the same as that of last month; The impact of the new price increase was about 11.7 percentage points, an increase of 2.8 percentage points over the previous month.