Kaiyuan Securities Textile And Clothing Industry Weekly Report - 20220206

1. This week (2022.01.24-2022.01.28, the same below) focuses on recommending / benefiting objects

(1) sports leader: Anta sports, Li Ning, beneficiary target: Tebu International; (2) Leading sportswear Retailers: taobo; (3) OEM leader: Huali group, Shenzhou International, kairun shares, beneficiary target: virgin; (4) Leisure leader: home of Hailan, Senma clothing; (5) Target of other sub sectors: robust health care.

2. The Winter Olympic Games will heat up the sports economy, and the sports and OEM leaders will usher in new opportunities

At present, with the opening of the Winter Olympics, the government media and various sports brands have increased their publicity efforts, and the discussion on Winter Olympics topics on social media platforms has increased significantly, which is conducive to the promotion of the voice of leading sports brands. Hong Kong's sporting goods index rose 5.99% in a single day. We believe that under the promotion of national policies, with the development of national fitness and the construction of sports power, sports demand and sports shoes and clothing consumption will continue to grow, and sports shoes and clothing brand leaders and related OEM leaders are expected to usher in a new round of opportunities.

3. Update of key coverage companies / income targets this week

(1) Anta Sports: Anta will provide equipment for 12 Chinese teams such as short track speed skating team in this winter Olympic Games. The topic of micro blog "love sports in China has Anta" has also aroused heated discussion in microblog. Olympic related topics are conducive to the promotion of brand volume. As of 18:00 p.m. on February 6, 2022, the topic has accumulated 1.63 billion times of reading, 3.13 million times of discussion, and 189000 writers. From the reading trend, the number of reading reached a peak of 160 million on February 4, the opening day of the Winter Olympics; Judging from the trend of discussion, the number of discussions reached a peak of 136000 after China won the gold medal of mixed team relay of short track speed skating in Winter Olympic Games at 21:00 on February 5.

(2) Li Ning: in January, the running water kept a high growth, and the new series of Li Ning 1990 showed a bright performance. As of January 31, 2022, we expect that the year-on-year growth rate of Li Ning's offline direct marketing and wholesale business is more than 100%, including that of direct business over 110% and that of wholesale business over 95%. We estimate that the average store efficiency of the new series of Li Ning in January 1990 will be about 1.1 million, mainly due to the fact that the newly opened stores are still in the starting stage, reducing the average store efficiency. In December 2021, we expect the single month store efficiency of Li Ning 1990 to be more than 2 million.

(3) taobo: the Nike Beijing brand experience store jointly built by taobo and Nike opened in taiguli, Sanlitun, Beijing, covering an area of 2800 square meters. This store is the first time that Nike has launched rise concept store through strategic partner in China. Fy22q4 (21.12-22.2) is taobo's last high base. In the context of weakened supply chain influence, taobo has obvious competitive advantages: (1) firm brand strategy to open big stores, and the benefits of big stores are significantly better than those of peers. Under the advantage of rich resources of high-level stores, the products are in deep and full range, which is expected to seize the market share of peers; (2) The mature off store business model is conducive to increasing the output of single store when the epidemic situation is repeated; (3) Fy2023 will expand new domestic customers and new markets of international customers. It is expected that the performance will usher in a turning point in the new fiscal year of fy2023.

(4) Huali group: the performance is better than expected, optimistic about sports brand, and its share continues to increase under the tight supply chain. According to the company's performance forecast, it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be 2.630-2.912 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 40% - 55%. The company's performance exceeded the market's previous expectations, mainly due to the excellent epidemic prevention work of the company's Vietnam factory, and the production capacity was not affected. Under the background of the shortage of sports brand supply chain and the continuous recovery of sports demand and sports shoes consumption, the company seized the opportunity to expand its share and stabilize its leading position by releasing production capacity and improving operational efficiency.

Risk tips: the epidemic situation at home and abroad is deteriorating. The shortage of international brand supply chain is increasing.