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Market Analysis: Global Cotton Consumption Is Expected To Exceed Production In 2022 / 23
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The U.S. Department of agriculture (USDA) released its first global cotton outlook report for 2022 / 23. It is estimated that global cotton consumption will exceed production and global stocks will drop by 2.5 million bales. Global cotton production is expected to increase by 3.2% and harvest area in some countries will increase. As the global economy continues to recover from the severe downturn in 2020 and supply chain problems in 2021, global cotton consumption is expected to grow at an average long-term rate. The report predicts that China's cotton imports will increase compared with 2021 / 22, due to the growth of textile consumption and the government's restocking. The a index is expected to fall 30 cents to 95 cents a pound as prices fall from a 10-year high in 2021 / 22.
U.S. cotton production is expected to increase to 18.2 million bales in 2022 / 23, and the sown area will expand by 13%, but the harvest area is expected to increase by only 2%, due to the ultra-low growth of abandoned yield from 2021 / 22. The cotton consumption of domestic cotton textile mills is expected to increase slightly, and the export is expected to be 15.5 million bales, which is also higher than that in 2021 / 22.
Global cotton production in 2022 / 23 is expected to increase by about 3% or 3.8 million bales to 124 million bales compared with the previous year. This will be the highest level of global cotton production since 2017 / 18 and only 3% below the record high set in 2011 / 12. Most cotton growing areas will be expanded as high cotton prices encourage this expansion.
In 2022 / 23, China's cotton output is expected to increase by 1 million bales to 28 million bales. Due to the small increase of cotton planting area in Xinjiang, the yield per unit area also increases slightly, and approaches the trend level after the decline in 2021 / 22.
In 2022 / 23, irrigation water supply in Northern Xinjiang is facing some uncertainties, because snow cover lags behind the previous year by the end of January, but the environment in southern Xinjiang is improved.
In India, cotton production is expected to increase by 1 million bales to 28 million bales, and China and India will once again become the world's largest cotton producers. Compared with a range of other competing crops, India's cotton prices have risen significantly over the previous year, with cotton prices up 25-30% in January, according to the Ministry of industry promotion and internal trade. India's cotton acreage in 2022 / 23 may increase by more than 5% over the previous year, but the yield per unit area is expected to decline slightly. However, the yield is expected to increase due to the expansion of sown area.
Similarly, in Pakistan, farmers have indicated that more land will be used to plant cotton, and irrigation water supply is good in 2022 / 23, and cotton production is expected to increase by 600000 bales. In recent years, the cotton yield per unit area in Pakistan has a large variable, but it is estimated that the cotton yield in 2021 / 22 will meet the 5-year median level, so the yield forecast in 2022 / 23 will be the same as that of the previous year.
In the rest of the northern hemisphere, cotton production in Turkey and Central Asia is also expected to benefit from relatively high cotton prices and winter rainfall in 2021 / 22, with production expected to increase from the previous year, including Greece and Egypt. ?
In the southern hemisphere, Brazil's cotton production in 2022 / 23 is expected to be the same as that in 2021 / 22. ?
Australian cotton production in 2022 / 23 is expected to decrease by 600000 bales compared with the previous year.
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