Global Perspective: Cotton Planting Area In Texas Is Expected To Increase

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Ben McKnight and John Robinson, Texas cotton experts, say cotton is still very competitive compared to other warm season crops. They also pointed out that the planting area depends on the choice of growers and soil moisture content.

Both experts estimate that Texas is expected to grow about 7 million acres of cotton.

Robinson said early planting surveys predicted that up to 12.5 million acres of cotton would be planted in the United States. Compared with 11.7 million acres in 2021, the year-on-year increase was 6.8%.

The United States Department of agriculture (USDA) reported that 13.7 million acres of cotton were planted in 2019, and the demand was reduced due to the new crown epidemic.

Cotton planting in the Rio Grande Valley will accelerate next week, McKnight said. Planting in other parts of the state will be pushed north as soil temperatures reach above 60 degrees Fahrenheit.

"When the soil temperature rises, it's in the 65-70 degrees Fahrenheit range, the soil conditions are good. Last year in our experimental field, we encountered a cold front, after planting, the temperature dropped to more than 40 degrees, which affected the emergence of cotton seedlings," he said

McKnight said soil temperature will affect early planting, but soil moisture will also be a major consideration at the time of planting and may help growers decide what to plant. On the one hand, the increasingly dry climate and the persistent La Nina phenomenon may prompt farmers to abandon corn and plant more drought tolerant crops such as cotton.

But he added that cotton fields need enough soil moisture to ensure that yields do not decrease at harvest time. Most of the cotton fields in the lower reaches of the Rio Grande are irrigated. However, in West Texas and the Texas plain, long-term drought conditions are of concern.

"Drought monitoring maps show that many parts of the state are dry or dry. The weather will have a big impact on the condition of the crop and will also affect growers' planting decisions," McKnight said

Commodity prices and input costs will also affect planting decisions, McKnight and Robinson said. If the rotation decision is flexible, the price of nitrogen fertilizer may shift the corn planting area to the cotton planting area.

"Corn needs more water and nitrogen, so both factors help grow more cotton," Robinson said

Robinson said cotton futures prices had been hovering at relatively high levels of $1 - $1.05 per pound for weeks. Corn prices are also high, at about $5.70 a bushel. If a choice is to be made, Robinson believes that corn may be lost to cotton or other crops where there are viable options in the state.