National Bureau Of Statistics: China'S Purchasing Managers Index Rose Steadily In February

On March 1, 2022, the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics and the China Federation of logistics and purchasing released the China purchasing manager index. In this regard, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center Senior Statistician Zhao Qinghe has carried on the interpretation.

In February, the purchasing manager index of manufacturing industry, non manufacturing business activity index and comprehensive PMI output index were 50.2%, 51.6% and 51.2% respectively, which continued to be in the expansion range, higher than 0.1%, 0.5% and 0.2% of the previous month, indicating that China's economy as a whole continues to maintain the recovery and development trend, and the prosperity level has increased steadily.

1、 The purchasing manager index of manufacturing industry is stable

In February, the situation of enterprises returning to work and production after the festival is good. The PMI of manufacturing industry continues to operate smoothly in the expansion range, the demand is improved, and the prosperity level is expected to rise slightly. Its main characteristics are as follows

First, both supply and demand have expanded. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the expansion of production and operation activities in the manufacturing industry slowed down, with the production index of 50.4%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; The index of new orders was 50.7%, up 1.4% from the previous month, returning to the expansion range, indicating that the release of market demand in the manufacturing industry has accelerated after the festival. From the industry situation, the production index and new order index of pharmaceutical, special equipment, automobile and other industries are all higher than 54.0%, and the industry is developing rapidly; However, the production index and new order index of non-metallic mineral products, ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing industries were lower than 46.0%, and the industry supply and demand were weak.

Second, the price index has increased greatly. The purchasing price index and the ex factory price index of main raw materials were 60.0% and 54.1%, respectively, higher than 3.6% and 3.2% of the previous month. Both price indexes increased significantly for two consecutive months, and the overall price level of the manufacturing industry increased. From the perspective of the industry, the two price indexes of petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, nonferrous metal smelting and calendering processing industries continue to be in the high range of above 60.0%. The purchasing costs of raw materials in related industries are increasing, and the sales prices of products are rising rapidly.

Third, the adjustment of industrial structure has been steadily promoted. The PMI of high-tech manufacturing industry and equipment manufacturing industry were 53.1% and 51.4% respectively, higher than 1.2% and 1.1% of the previous month. Since March 2020, it has been in the expansion range, and new momentum continues to develop. The PMI of consumer goods industry was 51.8%, 1.6 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, and holiday consumption played an important role. The PMI of high energy consumption industry was 48.3%, 1.4% lower than that of last month, and the prosperity level of high energy consumption industry was low.

Fourth, enterprises are expected to continue to warm up. After the Spring Festival, the manufacturing production activities gradually returned to normal. Recently, the relevant departments issued a series of policies and measures to promote the steady growth of the industrial economy. The enterprise market expectations were further improved. The expected index of production and operation activities was 58.7%, 1.2 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, and rose to the recent high point. From the industry situation, the production and operation expected indexes of the 21 industries surveyed are all in the boom range, among which the nonferrous metal smelting and calendering processing, automobile, electrical machinery equipment and other industries are in the high prosperity range of more than 60.0% for two consecutive months, and the enterprises of relevant industries have strong confidence in the recent market development.

Fifth, the prosperity level of large and medium-sized enterprises has increased. The PMI of large and medium-sized enterprises were 51.8% and 51.4%, respectively, which was 0.2% and 0.9% higher than that of the previous month, and the prosperity level increased. The PMI of small enterprises was 45.1%, which was 0.9 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. The low level of prosperity dropped. The resumption of work and production of small enterprises after the festival was relatively lagging behind, and the pressure of production and operation was still great.

Although the prosperity level of the manufacturing industry has rebounded, there are still many outstanding problems in the production and operation of enterprises. The proportion of enterprises reflecting high raw material cost, high labor cost and capital shortage are 60.2%, 36.3% and 32.0% respectively, which are all higher than that of last month. At present, it is still necessary to promote the implementation of policies such as helping enterprises to relieve difficulties, so as to provide strong support for the stable growth of the manufacturing industry.

2、 Non manufacturing business activity index rebounded

In February, the non manufacturing business activity index was 51.6%, up 0.5% from the previous month, indicating that the overall recovery of the non manufacturing industry has accelerated.

The prosperity level of the service industry has rebounded. The business activity index of the service industry was 50.5%, a slight increase of 0.2% over the previous month. The service industry continued to recover, but compared with the previous Spring Festival months, the prosperity level was low. From the industry situation, driven by the consumption of Spring Festival holidays, the business activity index of railway transportation, air transportation, postal express, culture, sports and entertainment industries all rose to above 57.0%, and the total business volume of related enterprises increased month on month; However, the retail, ecological protection and environmental management, residential services and other industries are relatively affected by the epidemic. The business activity index is lower than 45.0%, and the market activity is weak. From the perspective of market expectations, the expected index of business activities in the service industry was 59.6%, up 2.9 percentage points over the previous month, indicating that most service enterprises are optimistic about the recent market development due to the gradual recovery of the market after the festival and the various relief policies to support the recovery and development of the service industry in difficulty.

The construction industry is expected to improve. The business activity index of the construction industry was 57.6%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points over the previous month. Among them, the business activity index of civil engineering construction industry was 58.6%, which was 8.9 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. The prosperity level of the construction industry was significantly improved. From the perspective of market demand and expectation, the new order index and business activity expectation index were 55.1% and 66.0% respectively, both higher than that of last month. Among them, the business activity expectation index has been operating at a high level for two consecutive months, indicating that construction enterprises have a good expectation for the development of the industry, driven by the acceleration of stable investment in the near future and the moderate advance of some major infrastructure projects and projects.

3、 The composite PMI output index rose slightly

In February, the comprehensive PMI output index was 51.2%, higher than 0.2% of the previous month, indicating that the pace of expansion of production and operation activities of China's enterprises accelerated. The manufacturing production index and non manufacturing business activity index which constitute the composite PMI output index are 50.4% and 51.6% respectively.