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Market Analysis: Global Cotton Supply And Demand Trend, Cotton Prices Or Ushered In A Callback

2022/4/6 10:09:00 0

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Looking back on the historical data in recent years, the global cotton production was lower than the consumption before 2017, so the cotton inventory at the end of the year continued to decline. With the increase of global cotton planting area, the output increased year by year, the gap between production and demand narrowed, and the decline trend of inventory consumption ratio slowed down.

In 2017 / 18, the cotton inventory consumption ratio dropped to 65.72%.

Due to the global epidemic situation in 2020, cotton consumption in 2019 / 20 will be greatly reduced, and the price of cotton will plummet, coupled with adverse weather and other factors.

In 2020 / 21, the global cotton production will significantly reduce, resulting in a roller coaster change in the global cotton inventory consumption ratio. USDA estimated in March that the inventory consumption ratio in 2021 / 22 will be 66.30%, which is close to the level in 2018 / 19.

According to the understanding of Mysteel agricultural products, cotton planting in Xinjiang has started sporadically in 2022. Recent data published by USDA and other institutions show that high cotton prices stimulate farmers' enthusiasm for cotton planting, and the planting area has an increasing trend. It is estimated that the global cotton output will increase in 2022 / 23; Due to the substitution of other products, the growth rate of global cotton consumption in recent years is very limited, and the consumption basically reaches the bottleneck, based on the weak performance of the domestic cotton textile market.

Global cotton consumption in 2022 / 23 may be lower than that in 2021 / 22; Therefore, it is estimated that the global cotton inventory consumption ratio in 2022 / 23 may rise slightly.

To sum up, the international situation is gradually easing, the US Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates in several rounds, the degree of international commodity inflation is expected to be controlled, and the global cotton inventory consumption ratio in 2022 / 23 may increase. Therefore, it is considered that the international cotton price may usher in a significant correction.