National Bureau Of Statistics: Purchasing Managers Index Of Manufacturing Industry Fell In July

On July 31, 2022, the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics and the China Federation of logistics and purchasing released the China purchasing manager index. In this regard, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center Senior Statistician Zhao Qinghe has carried on the interpretation.

In July, the purchasing manager index of manufacturing industry was 49.0%, 1.2 percentage points lower than the previous month, which was below the critical point; The non manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were 53.8% and 52.5%, respectively, down 0.9% and 1.6% compared with the previous month, which were in the expansion range for two consecutive months. On the whole, China's economic prosperity level has declined, and the recovery foundation still needs to be stable.

1、 Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell to contraction range

In July, the PMI of the manufacturing industry dropped to 49.0% due to the factors of traditional production off-season, insufficient release of market demand and low prosperity of high energy consuming industries.

（1） Some industries maintained a recovery trend. Among the 21 industries surveyed, PMI of 10 industries are in the expansion range, among which the PMI of agricultural and sideline food processing, food and wine beverage refined tea, special equipment, automobile, railway, ship, aerospace equipment and other industries is higher than 52.0%, which has maintained expansion for two consecutive months, and the production and demand have continued to recover. PMI of high energy consuming industries such as textile, petroleum coal and other fuel processing, ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing continued to be in the contraction range, significantly lower than the overall level of manufacturing industry, which was one of the main factors for PMI decline this month.

（2） The price index fell significantly. Affected by the price fluctuation of oil, coal, iron ore and other international bulk commodities, the purchase price index and ex factory price index of main raw materials were 40.4% and 40.1%, respectively, down 11.6% and 6.2% compared with the previous month. Among them, the price index of ferrous metal smelting and calendering industry was the lowest among the surveyed industries, and the purchase price of raw materials and the ex factory price of products dropped significantly. Due to the sharp fluctuation of price level, the wait-and-see sentiment of some enterprises increased and their purchase intention weakened. The purchasing volume index of this month was 48.9%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous month.

（3） The expected index of production and operation activities is in the expansion range. Recently, the internal and external environment of China's economic development has become more complex and severe. The production and operation of enterprises have been under continuous pressure, and the market expectations have been affected. The expected index of production and operation activities is 52.0%, which is 3.2% lower than that of last month, and continues to be in the expansion range. As far as the prosperity index is above 59%, it is expected that the aviation and automobile industries will be stable; The textile industry, petroleum coal and other fuel processing industries and ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries were all in the contraction range for four consecutive months, and relevant enterprises had insufficient confidence in the development prospects of the industry.

This month, supply and demand of the manufacturing industry fell slightly after the rapid release in June. The production index and new order index were 49.8% and 48.5%, respectively, down 3.0% and 1.9% compared with the previous month, both in the contraction range. The survey results show that the proportion of enterprises reflecting insufficient market demand has risen for four consecutive months, exceeding 50% this month. Insufficient market demand is the main difficulty faced by manufacturing enterprises, and the recovery foundation of manufacturing industry development needs to be stable.

2、 Non manufacturing business activity index continues to expand

In July, the non manufacturing business activity index was 53.8%, lower than 0.9% of the previous month, and the non manufacturing industry recovered growth for two consecutive months.

（1） The service industry continued to recover. In July, the business activity index of the service industry was 52.8%, 1.5 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, and remained in the expansion range, indicating that the service industry continued to recover under the guidance of a series of policies and measures to stabilize growth and promote consumption. Among the 21 industries surveyed, the business activity index of 16 industries is in the expansion range, among which the business activity index of air transportation, accommodation, catering, ecological protection and public facilities management is higher than 60.0%. The restrained consumption demand in the early stage continues to release, and the business volume of related industries continues to recover rapidly. At the same time, the business activity index of insurance, leasing and business services, residential services and other industries all fell down, and they were in the contraction range, and the industry market activity was weak. From the perspective of market expectation, the expected index of business activities is 58.8%, which continues to be in a relatively high boom range. The business activity expectation index of all industries surveyed has been above the critical point for two consecutive months, and the confidence of service enterprises has generally recovered.

（2） The expansion of the construction industry accelerated. The business activity index of the construction industry was 59.2%, 2.6 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, and the production activities of the construction industry accelerated. From the perspective of the industry, the business activity index, new order index and employee index of civil engineering and construction industry were 58.1%, 51.8% and 51.9% respectively, up 0.2%, 1.6% and 1.0% compared with the previous month, indicating that the construction of infrastructure projects has been accelerated, the market demand has rebounded, the employment of enterprises has continued to increase, and the industry is expected to maintain stable growth.

3、 The expansion of the composite PMI output index slowed down

In July, the comprehensive PMI output index was 52.5%, lower than 1.6% of the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises continued to expand, but the pace slowed down. The manufacturing production index and non manufacturing business activity index, which constitute the composite PMI output index, are 49.8% and 53.8% respectively.