Analysis And Prospect Of China'S Clothing Export Trend In The First Half Of The Year

In the first half of this year, China's clothing (including clothing accessories, the same below) exports slowed down sharply due to frequent domestic epidemic and other factors. In April, China's clothing exports increased by only 2.4% year-on-year. Since May, with the promotion of the resumption of domestic production, the recovery of logistics and freight transport, and the full deployment and implementation of various stable foreign trade policies, clothing exports have rebounded rapidly, showing strong development toughness.

1. China's clothing export in the first half of the year

　 Exports rebounded rapidly in the second quarter

According to customs statistics, China's clothing exports totaled US $80.26 billion in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%, a record high in the same period of history. Judging from the quarterly export situation, the first quarter started smoothly, increasing by 7.4% on the basis of last year's high base. In April, some major export provinces and cities were greatly affected by the epidemic situation. In May and June, exports rebounded rapidly, with a year-on-year increase of 16.1% in the second quarter, 8.7 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter.

　 Major clothing categories maintained growth, but slowed down compared with last year

In the first half of the year, the export of knitwear was 36.25 billion US dollars, up 21.9% year on year, 20% lower than the 42% growth rate of last year. Clothing exports increased by 23.9% compared with the fourth quarter of last year, with an increase of $338 million. The export of clothing accessories reached US $7.23 billion, up 23.9% year on year.

The export of outdoor and commuting clothing increased rapidly

With the opening of overseas epidemic control and the recovery of commuting, the export of outdoor clothing increased rapidly. In the first half of the year, the export of overcoats and cold proof clothing increased by 51.3%, while the exports of dresses, shirts, sweaters and sportswear / swimsuit increased by 25.8%, 36.2%, 29.6% and 22.4% respectively. Due to the large export base last year and the decrease of purchase demand this year, the growth of home clothing has slowed down obviously. The export growth rate of underwear, pajamas and brassiere is about 10%.

The export of epidemic prevention products under clothing decreased sharply

In the first half of the year, China exported 2.48 billion US dollars of anti epidemic products under the items of medical protective clothing and medical gloves, a sharp drop of 70.4% year-on-year. If the factor of epidemic prevention materials is excluded, the actual growth rate of China's conventional clothing export in the first half of the year is 23%. Protective clothing and medical gloves drag down the growth rate of clothing exports by about 11 percentage points.

　　 Export prices keep rising

Affected by the rising prices of raw materials, changes in export categories and other factors, clothing export prices have increased significantly since the third quarter of last year. Since the third quarter of last year, the average unit price of woven clothing has soared by more than 40%. This year, the average unit price of woven clothing has dropped. The year-on-year increases in the first and second quarters are 31.7% and 18.3% respectively. The average unit price growth of knitted apparel export was relatively stable, with a year-on-year increase of 8.7% and 11.7% in the first and second quarters of this year, respectively.

　　 ASEAN surpasses Japan to become China's third largest clothing export market

In the first half of the year, China's clothing exports to the United States, the European Union and ASEAN were US $19.3 billion, US $15.9 billion and US $7.21 billion respectively, up 14.6%, 19.6% and 28% respectively over the same period of last year. ASEAN surpassed Japan and became China's third largest clothing export market. Exports to Japan amounted to US $6.45 billion, down 5.2% year on year.

In terms of major export regions, exports to Latin America increased by 36.2%, exports to Africa increased by 2.9%, exports to countries along the belt and road increased by 15.1%, and exports to RCEP member countries increased by 9.7%. In terms of major single country markets, exports to South Korea and Australia increased by 4.3% and 17.1% respectively; Exports to the UK, Canada and Russia decreased by 5%, 4.6% and 33.2% respectively.

　　 Zhejiang's export increased rapidly, while that of Guangdong decreased significantly

In the first half of the year, Zhejiang's clothing exports reached 16.41 billion US dollars, up 29.1% year on year, accounting for more than 20% of China's clothing exports. Compared with last year's export growth rate of 1.6%, Guangdong's export growth rate dropped by 10.6% year-on-year. Jiangsu, Shandong, Fujian and Shanghai ranked third to sixth, with a year-on-year increase of 13.5%, 18.9%, 7.2% and 6.3%, respectively. The export of Xinjiang, Jiangxi, Hunan and other central and western regions increased rapidly, with a year-on-year growth of 86.7%, 48.9% and 80.3% respectively.

China's share in the United States and Canada has declined significantly,

Other markets are relatively stable

In the first five months, China accounted for 21.8%, 27%, 54.5%, 23.9%, 31.1%, 61.5% and 30% of the clothing import market shares of the United States, the European Union, Japan, the United Kingdom, South Korea, Australia and Canada respectively decreased by 6.1, 0.8 and 4.8 percentage points in the United States, the European Union and Canada, respectively Australia's share increased by 0.3, 3.8, 1.4 and 0.9 percentage points respectively.

2. International market in the first half of the year

International demand is recovering

In the first half of the year, although the world economy encountered multiple pressures, such as the crisis in Russia and Ukraine and high inflation, international demand still showed a recovery trend due to the release of all countries from the epidemic. In the first five months, clothing imports from the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom and South Korea all achieved double-digit growth, with a year-on-year increase of 15.9%, 15.1%, 23.5% and 18.2%, respectively; Australia and Canada achieved steady growth of 5.1% and 7.2%, while Chile and Brazil, the main markets in South America, saw strong growth of 76.9% and 14.3%. In the first half of the year, Japan's clothing imports decreased by 6.2% in US dollar terms, but increased by 6.9% in yen terms.

　 Overseas supply chain continues to recover

Vietnam, Bangladesh and other major clothing export countries have significantly accelerated the pace of recovery. In the first half of the year, Vietnam's clothing exports reached US $17.38 billion, up 17.8% year-on-year, of which exports to the United States increased by 20.3%. Turkey's clothing export reached US $9.94 billion, up 15.5% year on year. In the first five months, clothing imports from Bangladesh amounted to US $19.06 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33.5%. In the first five months, Vietnam's market share in the United States increased by 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, while Bangladesh's market share in the United States, the European Union and Japan increased by 2.4, 4.6 and 1.2 percentage points respectively.

3 Trend Outlook

In the first half of the year, although the rebound of the domestic epidemic situation had a certain impact on the smooth operation of the supply chain, with the tenacity and comprehensive advantages of China's textile and garment industry chain, the clothing export still maintained a steady and rapid growth. Looking forward to the future, the world bank, IMF, WTO and others have lowered their expectations for global economic and trade growth for the whole year. The risk of stagflation in the world economy has increased significantly. Several major economies have continued to raise interest rates, and the global economic recovery is facing challenges.

Weak international market demand and increased risk

The US consumer price index increased by 6.9% year-on-year and 9.0% in Europe. Since May, the retail sales of clothing stores in the United States have declined for two consecutive months, and the consumption has peaked. The U.S. retailers' inventory pressure has increased, the clothing inventory retail ratio has increased for eight consecutive months, and the household goods inventory retail ratio has exceeded the pre epidemic level. In April, the retail sales of textile, clothing and footwear in EU increased by 39.4% year-on-year, but still decreased by 18% compared with the same period before the epidemic. In May, Japan's textile and clothing retail sales increased by 11.8% year-on-year, but still decreased by 20.3% compared with the same period before the epidemic. In June, German retail sales fell 8.8% year-on-year, the biggest drop since 1994. The international market trend in the second half of the year is not optimistic.

Reduction of ocean freight and depreciation of exchange rate to relieve pressure on Enterprises

Since the beginning of this year, the bottleneck of international shipping has been eased and the sea freight has been reduced, but it is still at a high level compared with last year. The composite index of China's export container freight rates (July 22) was 3229.72, down 9% from January this year, but still 16% higher than the same period last year.

Since April this year, the RMB exchange rate has begun to depreciate. Since May, the exchange rate has basically remained between 6.6 and 6.8. This round of depreciation is larger, which is conducive to improving the profit margin of export enterprises, but if the fluctuation is too large, it will also increase the exchange risk.

The uncertainty of the international trade environment has intensified, the impact of Sino US economic and trade frictions marked by the "Xinjiang related act" has been highlighted, and the uncontrollable factors faced by export enterprises have increased.

Recently, the International Monetary Fund lowered its global GDP growth forecast for 2022 to 3.2% from 3.6% in April, and lowered the U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2022 to 2.3% from 3.7% in April; Reduce Japan's economic growth forecast in 2022 to 1.7% from 2.4% in April; Cut the euro zone's growth forecast for 2022 to 2.6% from 2.8% in April; It is predicted that Russia's economy will shrink by 6.0% in 2022. The IMF says the risk of a recession will be particularly acute in 2023. It can be predicted that the foreign trade situation in the second half of the year will be more complex and severe, and our garment export enterprises will face multiple pressure and risk challenges from weakening international demand, overseas supply chain competition and economic and trade friction.