GCL Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (002015): Cost Disturbance, Profit Waiting For Power Exchange And Speed Up

In the single quarter of the second quarter, the company achieved revenue of 2.424 billion yuan, which was - 26.4% year-on-year. The parent profit was 217 million yuan, which was - 36.8% year-on-year. After deducting non net profit of 18 million yuan, it was - 93.7% year-on-year. The short-term operation is affected by the price of natural gas and coal, the company's profit is disturbed, the second quarter is under short-term pressure, and the expansion and construction of the power station are affected by factors such as the previous epidemic situation. Looking forward to the whole year, the company's electricity exchange business has started, the carbon neutral Fund + fixed increase fund has been put in place, and the construction of exchange power station is expected to accelerate.

Cost impact, profit pressure in the short term. In the first half of the year, the company's revenue was 5.03 billion yuan, 17.2% year-on-year. The parent company's profit was 387 million yuan, which was - 22.3% year-on-year. The non net profit was 117 million yuan, which was - 73.4% year-on-year; In the single quarter of the second quarter, the company's revenue was 2.424 billion yuan, which was - 26.4% year-on-year. The profit attributable to the parent company was 217 million yuan, which was - 36.8% year-on-year. After deducting non net profit of 18 million yuan, it was - 93.7% year-on-year. Overall, in the first half of the year, under the high price of natural gas and coal, the company's short-term profitability is under pressure. Considering that the short-term price adjustment is not in place to avoid further losses, the company flexibly adjusted the scale of power business shipment, resulting in a downward revenue.

The pressure of cogeneration is high. In terms of business, the first half of the year saw the biggest pressure on electricity sales, with revenue of 2.7 billion yuan, which was - 28.8% year-on-year. Considering some price factors, the actual settlement electricity was 4.891 billion hours, which was - 35.28% year-on-year, which was related to the company's flexibility adjustment; In the first half of the year, the revenue of steam business was 1.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 16.6%, including 7.018 million tons of settlement gas volume, which was - 13.0% year-on-year. However, the unit price increased significantly compared with the same period last year, which was related to the price adjustment mechanism of steam business, and finally realized the overall revenue growth; Up to now, the company plans to build 30 power stations, including 18 passenger car power stations, 12 commercial vehicles and 1 commercial vehicle charging station.

The cost of raw materials has a great impact. In the second quarter, the company's gross profit margin was 16.7%, which was -9.6pcts and -1.9pcts on a year-on-year basis. In terms of expense rate, the sales expense rate, management expense rate, R & D expense rate and financial expense rate in the second quarter were + 0.6, 0.9, 0.2 and 2.0 PCTs respectively, and the company's net interest rate in the second quarter was 8.9%, which was - 1.5 PCTs and + 2.4 PCTs respectively.

The company has strong resource endowment and clear strategic focus. The company has the following advantages in power exchange operation: 1. It has strong integrated layout ability, and has advantages in low-cost power consumption, low-cost power exchange equipment and operation automation, and has stronger profitability; 2. The global distribution of GCL's energy business and abundant tog / tob accumulation are conducive to the development of commercial operation market; 3. The original main business provides cash flow guarantee, and cooperates with CICC carbon neutral Fund + dingzeng to enhance the capital strength; 4. The third party is more independent and enjoys the bonus of increasing the number of trams. Since the beginning of this year, the first 4.5 billion fund-raising of the carbon neutral fund jointly established by the company and CICC has been completed, and a further 3.7 billion capital will be added, which will greatly enhance the capital strength of the company; In addition, the company has recently continued to reach cooperation plans with Guiyang production control, Beijing jingshenxiang and Zhejiang lianeng new energy in battery bank, construction of Beijing Shanghai high-speed power exchange network and promotion of electric vehicle replacement, so as to continuously expand the "circle of friends" for power exchange and accelerate the implementation of business; In addition, the company also cooperates with chenyingjia and Shiji Tiansheng to obtain phosphate ore resources, further enhance the ability of integrated cost reduction, increase the competitiveness of the industrial chain and long-term layout by forming its own lithium battery core resources.

Risk factors: the national promotion of power exchange is not as expected; The construction of cogeneration is not up to expectation; The cost of natural gas is rising.

Profit forecast, valuation and rating: according to the interim report, the EPS forecast of the company from 2022 to 2024 is lowered to 0.58/0.76/1.00 yuan (the original forecast is 0.85/1.10/1.35 yuan), and the current price corresponds to 27 / 21 / 16 times PE. The company started with cogeneration, and together with its parent company, is the leader of domestic private enterprise energy enterprises. The traditional main business is stable, the power exchange business resource endowment is strong, and the business strategy is clearly focused. It is expected to give priority to the increase of domestic electricity exchange industry. With reference to the average PE valuation of about 30 times in 2023 (as expected by wind) compared with the same period of the same period in 2023 (as expected by wind), considering the high growth of the company's electricity exchange business, we will give 30 times PE in 2023, corresponding to the target price of 23 yuan, and maintain the "buy" rating.