National Bureau Of Statistics: Analysis On The Increase Of Purchasing Manager Index And Operation In January

1、 Operation of China's manufacturing PMI

In January, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of the manufacturing industry was 50.1%, up 3.1 percentage points from the previous month, rising above the critical point, and the prosperity level of the manufacturing industry rebounded significantly.

From the perspective of enterprise scale, the PMI of large enterprises was 52.3%, up 4.0 percentage points over the previous month, higher than the critical point; The PMI of small and medium-sized enterprises was 48.6% and 47.2% respectively, up 2.2 and 2.5 percentage points over the previous month, both below the critical point.

From the perspective of sub indexes, among the five sub indexes constituting the manufacturing PMI, the new order index is higher than the critical point, and the production index, raw material inventory index, employee index and supplier delivery time index are all lower than the critical point.

The production index was 49.8%, 5.2 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, indicating that the prosperity level of manufacturing production recovered rapidly.

The index of new orders was 50.9%, up 7.0 percentage points over the previous month, indicating that the market demand of the manufacturing industry has rebounded.

The raw material inventory index was 49.6%, up 2.5 percentage points over the previous month, indicating that the decline in the inventory of major raw materials in the manufacturing industry was significantly narrowed.

The employee index was 47.7%, up 2.9 percentage points over the previous month, indicating that the employment landscape of manufacturing enterprises has increased.

The supplier delivery time index was 47.6%, up 7.5 percentage points over the previous month, indicating that the delivery time extension of raw material suppliers in the manufacturing industry has improved.

2、 Operation of China's non manufacturing PMI

In January, the non manufacturing business activity index was 54.4%, 12.8 percentage points higher than the previous month, higher than the critical point, and the non manufacturing business prosperity level bottomed out and recovered.

By industry, the construction business activity index was 56.4%, up 2.0 percentage points over the previous month. The business activity index of the service industry was 54.0%, up 14.6 percentage points over the previous month. In terms of industry conditions, the business activity index of railway transportation, air transportation, postal service, monetary and financial services, insurance and other industries is at a high boom range of more than 60.0%; The business activity index of real estate and other industries is still below the critical point.

The index of new orders was 52.5%, 13.4 percentage points higher than the previous month, higher than the critical point, indicating that the demand of the non manufacturing market has recovered. By industry, the new order index of the construction industry was 57.4%, up 8.6 percentage points over the previous month; The index of new orders in the service industry was 51.6%, up 14.2 percentage points over the previous month.

The input price index was 51.5%, up 2.3 percentage points from the previous month, higher than the critical point, indicating that the overall level of input prices used by non manufacturing enterprises for business activities has increased. By industry, the input price index of the construction industry was 55.3%, 4.1 percentage points higher than that of last month; The input price index of the service industry was 50.9%, up 2.0 percentage points over the previous month.

The sales price index was 48.3%, 0.8 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, lower than the critical point, indicating that the decline of the overall sales price level of non manufacturing industry has narrowed. By industry, the sales price index of the construction industry was 52.8%, 2.8 percentage points higher than that of last month; The sales price index of the service industry was 47.5%, up 0.5 percentage point over the previous month.

The employment index was 46.7%, up 3.8 percentage points over the previous month, indicating that the employment landscape of non manufacturing enterprises has recovered. In terms of industry, the construction industry employee index was 53.1%, 7.4 percentage points higher than that of last month; The index of service industry employees was 45.5%, up 3.1 percentage points over the previous month.

The expected index of business activities was 64.9%, an increase of 11.2 percentage points over the previous month, higher than the critical point, indicating that non manufacturing enterprises had a better expectation of market recovery and development in the near future. By industry, the expected index of business activities in the construction industry was 68.2%, up 6.7 percentage points over the previous month; The expected index of service business activities was 64.3%, up 12.0 percentage points from the previous month.

3、 Operation of China's comprehensive PMI output index

In January, the comprehensive PMI output index was 52.9%, 10.3 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, higher than the critical point, indicating that the production and operation prosperity level of Chinese enterprises has rebounded.

On January 31, 2023, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Manager Index. Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted this.

In January, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index, the non manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index were 50.1%, 54.4% and 52.9%, respectively, which were 3.1, 12.8 and 10.3 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. The three indexes all rose to the expansion range, and China's economic prosperity level rebounded significantly.

1、 Manufacturing PMI rises above the critical point

In January, as the epidemic prevention and control entered a new stage, the order of production and life gradually recovered, and the PMI of the manufacturing industry rose to 50.1%, returning to the expansion range. Eighteen of the 21 industries surveyed were higher than last month, and the prosperity level of the manufacturing industry recovered rapidly.

（1） Both supply and demand sides improve synchronously. The production index and new order index were 49.8% and 50.9%, respectively, which were 5.2 and 7.0 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. The prosperity level of production and demand in the manufacturing industry was significantly warmer, but due to the Spring Festival holiday, the improvement of production was less than the market demand. From the perspective of industry conditions, the production index and new order index of nine industries, including agricultural and sideline food processing, medicine, general equipment, railway, ship, aerospace equipment, are all in the expansion range, of which the production and demand of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry have increased significantly, and both indexes have risen to a high level of more than 65.0%.

（2） PMI of enterprises of all sizes has rebounded. The PMI of large, medium and small enterprises was 52.3%, 48.6% and 47.2% respectively, higher than 4.0%, 2.2% and 2.5% of the previous month, and the prosperity level of enterprises of all sizes recovered. The survey results show that the proportion of large, medium and small enterprises reflecting insufficient labor supply is less than 11.0%, which is significantly lower than that of last month, and the situation that the shortage of employees restricts production has eased.

（3） PMI of key industries rose to varying degrees. The PMI of high-tech manufacturing industry, equipment manufacturing industry, consumer goods industry and high energy consuming industry was 52.5%, 50.7%, 50.9% and 48.6% respectively, which was 5.1, 4.7, 4.0 and 1.2 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. The prosperity level improved to varying degrees. From the perspective of market demand, the new order index of high-tech manufacturing industry, equipment manufacturing industry and consumer goods industry was 55.6%, 52.3% and 52.4% respectively, which was 11.2, 10.3 and 8.5 percentage points higher than that of last month, and all rose to the expansion range. The industry market demand recovered.

（4） Enterprise confidence has increased significantly. The expected index of production and business activities was 55.6%, 3.7 percentage points higher than that of last month, rising to a higher boom zone. The enterprise's expectation of the market recovery and development in the near future was positive. From the perspective of industry, the expected index of production and operation activities in railway, ship, aerospace equipment, electrical and mechanical equipment and other industries rose to a high boom range of more than 60.0%, and enterprises' confidence in industry development increased.

2、 Non manufacturing business activity index rebounded significantly

In January, the non manufacturing business activity index was 54.4%, 12.8 percentage points higher than the previous month, returning to the expansion range, and the non manufacturing business prosperity level bottomed out and recovered.

（1） The prosperity level of the service industry has changed from a decline to an increase. In January, the business activity index of the service industry was 54.0%, ending six consecutive months of decline and rising to the expansion range. The consumer market picked up during the Spring Festival holiday this month, and the prosperity level of the service industry rebounded significantly. Among the 21 industries surveyed, 15 are in the expansion range, among which the business activity index of railway transportation, air transportation, postal service, monetary and financial services, insurance and other industries is in the high boom range of more than 60.0%; At the same time, the business activity index of retail, accommodation, catering and other industries that were greatly affected by the epidemic in the early stage was more than 24.0 percentage points higher than that of last month, returning to the expansion range, indicating that residents' willingness to consume was significantly enhanced, and market activity rebounded. From the perspective of demand, the index of new orders was 51.6%, 14.2 percentage points higher than that of last month, rising to the expansion range, and the momentum of recovery and development of the service industry was strengthened. From the perspective of expectations, the expected index of business activities was 64.3%, 12.0 percentage points higher than that of last month, rising to a recent high, and the enterprise's expectations were positive.

（2） The construction industry is booming. The business activity index of the construction industry was 56.4%, 2.0 percentage points higher than that of last month, and the construction industry generally maintained a rapid expansion. From the perspective of expectations, the expected index of business activities was 68.2%, 6.7 percentage points higher than that of last month, and it was in a high boom zone for two consecutive months, indicating that with the implementation of various policies and measures to promote the commencement and construction of major projects, construction enterprises remained optimistic about market development.

3、 The comprehensive PMI output index rose to a recent high

In January, the comprehensive PMI output index was 52.9%, 10.3 percentage points higher than the previous month, rising to the expansion range, indicating that the production and operation prosperity of Chinese enterprises has recovered. The manufacturing production index and non manufacturing business activity index that constitute the comprehensive PMI output index are 49.8% and 54.4% respectively.

In January, the purchasing managers' index returned to the expansion range, reflecting that the production and operation prosperity of enterprises had significantly positive changes compared with December 2022. But at the same time, we should also see that there are still many manufacturing and service enterprises reflecting insufficient market demand in January. Insufficient market demand is still the primary problem facing enterprises' production and operation at present, and the foundation for China's economic recovery and development needs to be further consolidated.