The Cotton Planting Area Has Generally Declined Due To The Influence Of Grain Production Income

First, from the perspective of seed sales market, the cotton planting area will generally decline in 2023, and the decline in the mainland will be greater than that in Xinjiang. Among them, the area of Xinjiang declined slightly, mainly due to the reduction of cotton area caused by the policy increase in grain area. This year, the seed sales market started later than previous years. In addition, the reduction rate of the Corps was greater than that of the local governments, mainly because the Corps' grain area was well implemented. For example, wheat was planted in some cotton fields of the Eighth Agricultural Division last autumn, while the policy implementation in southern Xinjiang was not so well implemented because of the late completion of cotton purchase, which was only partially implemented this spring. The area of cotton in the Yangtze River Basin is declining at a relatively high rate, and the survey data should reach more than 30%. This is mainly due to the poor benefits of cotton planting, which is replaced by corn, soybeans and other crops. Soybean crops are more often replaced, and the management of soybeans is more labor saving than cotton. In the Yellow River basin, the cotton area declined more rapidly than that in the Yangtze River basin, mainly due to the impact of grain yield. The survey showed a decline of more than 40%, which was basically replaced by corn and wheat, because the yield of corn and wheat in the two seasons was far greater than that of cotton in the one season.

Second, from the perspective of growers, the current market price should be unprofitable. In Xinjiang, the cotton price fell significantly last year, but the land rent, agricultural materials and water fees did not fall, especially the land price, which in some areas is still rising without falling. Low cotton prices cannot support high land rent, high agricultural materials and high water charges. The cotton planting income in 2023 is not optimistic in Xinjiang, but there are no other good crops to choose from. Cotton farmers can only grow cotton. If there are alternative crops, there will be a large decline, just like the mainland, because there are many alternative crops in the mainland, Xinjiang's agricultural departments are also doing experiments, such as soybeans, peanuts, corn, and wheat. If the problem of fast planting is solved in terms of varieties, it may have a considerable impact on the cotton planting area. In the Yangtze River basin and the Yellow River basin, cotton has no ability to compete with corn, wheat, soybeans, etc. No matter in terms of cultivation technology, mechanization, economic benefits, industrial chain integrity, national policies, etc., there is no competitive advantage for cotton farmers. Cotton farmers can only choose other crops that are labor-saving, labor-saving and cost-effective.

Third, from the perspective of national policies, food security is the first priority. This year, not only there is a huge profit in grain planting, but also we will continue to increase the amount of subsidies, and subsidies will arrive on time. However, the new year's cotton policy has not yet been announced, and subsidies are lagging behind. The mainland has not seen subsidies for three years since 2020, In some regions, the cotton subsidies in 2020 and 2021 will be counted and issued only in 2023, but there is no way to implement the statistics because of the lag.

Fourthly, some suggestions are put forward. The first is to increase subsidies, especially in the Yangtze River basin and the Yellow River basin in the mainland, which should be at least the same as that in Xinjiang, because Xinjiang itself has the climate advantage of cotton planting. In addition, Xinjiang cotton is suppressed by foreign forces, so it is time for domestic subsidies to play a role; The second is to increase quality subsidies; Third, for subsidies in the mainland, we should increase the subsidy intensity and accuracy of key cotton planting counties and large cotton planting households, which will be easier to operate compared with small cotton planting households. In addition, it can be carried out in combination with other agricultural policies such as fallow, which means that the subsidy intensity has been increased accordingly. In some regions, cotton planting may be retained, or even recovered; Fourth, increase policy support for processing and purchasing business in key cotton planting counties, and provide support in the industrial chain to maintain the integrity of the industrial chain, so that cotton farmers can grow well and sell well. In some regions, due to the large decline in cotton area, the industrial chain has been damaged, especially the purchase and processing, some have stopped, Even the equipment has been processed; Fifth, it is suggested to introduce relevant support policies as soon as possible and do a good job in implementing them. Previously, there were policies in the mainland, but the implementation was not in place in Xinjiang.