Industry Data Analysis: Since April, Exports Have Played A Prominent Role In Maintaining Growth In The "Belt And Road" Market

Since the beginning of the year, the production and domestic sales of the textile and clothing industry have gradually recovered, and foreign trade has picked up steadily, which has played a positive role in stabilizing the economy and foreign trade. According to the data released by the Bureau of Statistics, the growth rate of the textile industry, clothing industry, added value, yarn, cloth output and other indicators in April has not yet turned positive, but the decline has gradually narrowed. Textile raw material purchase index (the same as the same period last year), clothing PPI (up 2% year on year) and CPI (up 0.9% year on year) all performed better than the overall level. The retail sales of clothing products above the limit increased by nearly 40% year on year, a further increase compared with March. The online retail sales of clothing products increased by 13.5%, higher than the average. In April, textile and clothing exports maintained a steady and rapid growth (up 9%), which exceeded the national average of goods trade.

The year-on-year growth rate of textile and clothing exports in April fell by 11 percentage points compared with that in March, and the export volume also fell by 2.8% month on month. The main reason is that the backlog of orders at the beginning of the year was concentrated in March, which led to the explosive growth of exports in that month. In April, exports returned to normal. From a follow-up perspective, the economic development trend of the United States and the European Union and changes in consumer demand are still important factors affecting China's exports. According to the data of the US Department of Commerce, the US retail sales in April this year increased by 0.4% month on month and 1.6% year on year, the lowest year-on-year increase since May 2020, among which the retail sales of clothing and furniture continued to cool. The Michigan consumer confidence index based on the US consumption survey fell further than the beginning of the year. According to data released by Eurostat, retail sales in the Eurozone in March fell 3.8% year on year and 1.2% month on month, significantly lower than market expectations. The sluggish external demand is still the most uncertain factor affecting China's export.

Compared with Europe and the United States, the Japanese market has gradually stabilized since the beginning of the year after several consecutive months of downturn. The decline of China's exports to Japan gradually narrowed from January to March, and ended in April, achieving double-digit growth.

Influenced by the decline in consumer demand and the accelerated "de sinicization" of the supply chain adopted by the United States and Europe, the proportion of the United States in China's textile and clothing exports has declined from 16.5% in 2019 before the epidemic to 14.9%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points. The EU's share fell from 14.6% to 11.5%, down 3.1 percentage points. At the same time, according to the statistics of the importers, the share of our products in the US market and the EU market also declined accordingly. Compared with 2019, in the first quarter of this year, our market shares in the US and the EU declined by 10.7 and 3.4 percentage points respectively, and the two-way downward trend of our share is striking.

While the US and Europe markets are weakening, the markets of RCEP countries and countries and regions along the "Belt and Road" are gradually emerging as new growth points. From January to April, China's exports to RCEP countries and countries along the "Belt and Road" increased by 3.1% and 5.1% respectively, higher than the growth rate of exports to the world. The proportion of the two places in China's exports has risen from 27.3% and 36.5% in 2019 before the epidemic to 31.9% and 41.7% at present, expanding by 4.6 and 5.2 percentage points respectively, and their market positions have risen rapidly.

From January to April 2023, the total import and export value of the national trade in goods was US $1939.72 billion, down 1.9% year on year (the same below), of which export was US $1116.96 billion, up 2.5%, import was US $822.76 billion, down 7.3%, and the accumulated trade surplus was US $294.19 billion.

In April 2023, the total import and export value of the national trade in goods was US $500.63 billion, up 1.1% year on year (the same below), of which export was US $295.42 billion, up 8.5%, import was US $205.21 billion, down 7.9%, and the trade surplus was US $90.21 billion.

From January to April, the trade volume of textiles and clothing was US $99.33 billion, down 3.9% year on year, of which exports were US $92.89 billion, down 2.9%, imports were US $6.44 billion, down 17.2%, and the accumulated trade surplus was US $86.45 billion, down 1.6%.

In April, the trade volume of textiles and clothing was US $27.29 billion, up 8.1% year on year, including exports of US $25.66 billion, up 9%, and imports of US $1.63 billion, down 5.1%. The trade surplus of the month was US $24.03 billion, up 10.1%.

The textile and clothing trade from January to April 2023 presents the following characteristics:

ASEAN - Affected by the transmission of declining demand from Europe and the United States, the growth momentum of China's export to ASEAN has weakened. In April, China's export to ASEAN kept growing, but the growth rate was only 0.7%, down nearly 30 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the intermediate yarn and fabric decreased by 12.1%, and the follow-up power for growth was insufficient. From January to April, the cumulative export to ASEAN increased by 2.3%, of which the total export of yarn and fabric decreased by 10.5%, and the export of clothing increased by 31%.

In March, the proportion of Chinese products in the US market further dropped to 18.8%, lower than 20% for the first time, and fell by 3.6 percentage points month on month; The EU market accounted for 23.7%, down 4 percentage points from last month. The market share in Japan rebounded to 53.6%, 8.7 percentage points higher than that in February.

Imports of major markets from the world and China generally declined. In March, US imports from the world dropped below 10 billion US dollars, down 32.4% year on year, 10 percentage points more than that of last month. Among them, the import from China decreased by 45%, the import from Vietnam decreased by 44.6%, and the import from India and Bangladesh also decreased by more than or nearly 30%. The EU's imports from the world dropped 18.6%, of which imports from China dropped 36.1%, both of which were larger than last month. Among them, it decreased by 20.5% from Turkey, and also decreased by 4.2% from Bangladesh, which had maintained growth in the previous period. Japan's imports from the world grew by 5.2%, an increase over the previous month. Among them, the imports from China recovered 2% growth, and the imports from Vietnam and Myanmar grew rapidly, with an increase of more than 20%.