Professional Market: The Cotton Price Market Is Developing Slightly Better

On Monday, Zheng Mian's main contract closed 0.28% lower at 16185 yuan/ton. Speculators sold many positions, and the trend of ICE cotton was weak recently. The domestic fundamentals have not changed much, and the logic of future trading may gradually switch from the demand side to the supply side.

The domestic fundamentals have not changed much, and the logic of future trading may gradually switch from the demand side to the supply side. Huarong Rongda Futures said that for Zheng Mian, the current time window entered April, and the market gradually shifted its trading focus from the demand side to the supply of new cotton. From the perspective of current demand, the downstream market demand has improved since late March. At present, new orders have increased, but there is still a lack of large orders. The downstream market is developing slightly better.

In addition, for agricultural products, changes in weather and planting area may become the focus of attention and speculation in the market at the initial stage of planting, which may become potential profitable factors for speculation in the later stage. However, at present, the domestic supply of cotton is relatively sufficient. If the price center moves up, the pressure of selling insurance above may appear. Zheng Mian may continue to fluctuate in the short and medium term.

As for the evolution of market logic, the supply and demand situation of American cotton in the next year will change from tight to loose, and the price of American cotton is relatively empty in the medium and long term. However, the export demand of American cotton continues to improve recently, and the planting area is lower than expected, and the short-term downward space may not be large. On the domestic side, in the four peak seasons of gold, silver and silver, downstream consumption is still weak, textile enterprises continue to accumulate stocks, and the difference between internal and external prices is significantly narrowed, which weakens the support for domestic cotton prices. The short-term drive of Zheng Mian is empty, and the medium and long-term lines still lack direction at present.