Market Analysis: The Growing Consumption Of Synthetic Fiber Leads To The Further Decline Of Cotton Market

The US Department of Agriculture's supply and demand forecast quoted the recent analysis report of the International Cotton Advisory Council (ICAC). As the production and consumption of synthetic fiber and cellulose fiber increased significantly, the proportion of cotton in global fiber consumption continued to decline.

In 2024/25, the global cotton consumption is expected to be 115.2 million bales, close to the 10-year average, more than 9 million bales lower than the record level four years ago. It is worth noting that this will happen in 2023 when global fiber consumption will reach a record. Synthetic fiber is meeting the growing global demand. China has always been a major supplier of man-made fibers. At the same time, the stagnation of global cotton production has also brought pressure on cotton consumption.

According to a report released by the Textile Exchange last month, polyester fiber is the main driving force for the growth of global synthetic fiber output. In 2023, the output will increase by 8 million tons (equivalent to nearly 37 million bales) year on year, reaching 71 million tons; The annual output growth is about one third of the world's annual cotton consumption. The total output of synthetic fiber is about 84 million tons (other fibers include nylon, polypropylene, acrylic acid and elastic fiber), which indicates that polyester fiber accounts for about 85% of the output of synthetic fiber.

In 2023, the global output of cellulose fiber will increase by 500000 tons (equivalent to 2.3 million bales) to 7.9 million tons, of which rayon (also known as viscose) will account for the majority, 6.3 million tons. According to the latest annual world textile demand report issued by the International Cotton Advisory Council (ICAC), the output of cellulose fiber in 2023 is more than 15% higher than that five years ago. The steady production and consumption growth of synthetic fiber and cellulose fiber is in sharp contrast to the stagnation or sometimes decline of cotton fiber consumption.

China has always been the main driving force for the growth of synthesis and fiber and cellulose fiber. According to the report of ICAC, China will produce nearly 70% of the world's synthesis and cellulose (i.e. MMF) in 2023. The expansion of polyester production capacity and supply has strengthened China's leading position in the global textile industry, especially considering the low price of polyester compared with cotton. China's man-made fiber exports - including fiber, yarn, fabric and finished products - have all seen substantial growth, with the total output increasing by more than 40% over the past five years. From October 2023 to September 2024, China's man-made fiber export volume is close to 26 million tons (equivalent to 118 million bales), exceeding the recent global cotton consumption.

The growth of global cotton consumption is limited by the stagnation of supply growth. In 2024/25, the global cotton output is expected to be lower than the historical long-term average value since 2000, and the cotton yield per unit area has basically not increased. The cotton planting area is also limited by competitive crops, partly because the price of competitive crops, such as soybeans and corn, is more advantageous. The competition between cotton and man-made fiber has led to the weakening of cotton demand, which has brought pressure on cotton prices, thus limiting the expansion of cotton planting area and making it difficult for cotton consumption to grow.