Industrial Cluster: Xinjiang Cotton Market Is Abundant This Year

The futures price of Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated last Friday. The closing price of May contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 13895 yuan/ton, down 40% from the previous trading day Yuan/ton, or 0.29%. In terms of spot goods, the average impurity content of Xinjiang machine-made cotton 3129B in Aksu region of Xinjiang is less than 2.8%, corresponding to the sales basis of 2505 contracts in the territory of 650-750 The delivery price is about 14520-14600 yuan/ton, which has little fluctuation compared with the last trading day. Textile enterprises can purchase raw materials when they use them.

The average miscellaneous content of 4129B machine-made cotton in Wusu region is less than 3%, and the sales basis of 2505 contracts is about 640-700 yuan/ton, and the delivery price is 14500-14600 yuan/ton About RMB/ton, a slight drop of about RMB 30/ton compared with the previous trading day. At present, textile enterprises just need to purchase, and spot transactions are mainly in small quantities.

In terms of external market, the futures price of American cotton fell last Friday, and the March contract of American cotton closed at 70.1 cents/pound, down 1.01 cents/pound from the previous trading day, or 1.42%。 The export sales report released by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows that as of the week of November 28, the annual net export sales of cotton in the current US market increased by 38400 tons, down from the previous week 47%。 The export shipment of American cotton was 37000 tons, an increase of 21% over the previous week, and an increase of 17% over the average of the previous four weeks. Among them, the net increase of export sales to mainland China was 0.29% 10000 tons. That week, US cotton export sales in the next year increased by 0 million tons.

The export contradiction of American cotton is becoming more serious, 2024/25 Since the beginning of the year, the export target of American cotton has been continuously lowered, but the progress of American cotton's export contracting has been far behind that of the same period in previous years. In the future, the export volume of American cotton still has room for reduction, that is, the supply and demand balance of American cotton may further deteriorate.

Domestically, the total cotton output in Xinjiang this year may exceed the expected growth, and the domestic market is in abundant supply. And with the end of the peak season, the new orders of textile enterprises in the off-season have decreased, and the operating rate of the downstream industry chain continues to decline month on month. It is expected to face greater hedging pressure above the production cost line in the short term.