Economic Observation: The Fear Of Declining Chinese Demand For Consumer Goods Such As The Cotton Market When Trump Took Office In The United States Is Rising

Recently, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs released an analysis report on the supply and demand situation of agricultural products. In 2024/25, the national cotton output increased by 180000 tons to 5.9 million tons, and the national cotton import forecast decreased by 300000 tons to 1.7 million tons (a year-on-year decrease of nearly 48%).]

The "China Cotton Supply and Demand Balance Table" of the China Cotton Association also lowered the total cotton import forecast for this year from the previous 2 million tons to 1.9 million tons. Other institutions and cotton related enterprises have also lowered the cotton import data of this year, most of which are concentrated in 1.5-180 million tons. According to customs statistics, in the first two months of 2024/25, China's cotton imports totaled 223100 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 57.32% (including a year-on-year decrease of 63.17% in October), showing a precipitous decline.

Why do all institutions cut down the forecast of China's cotton import in 2024/25? The opinions are summarized as follows (without discussing the adjustment of the changes in the economic situation of the United States and Europe on the demand for textile clothing):

First, the total amount of China's cotton import quota issued in 2024/25 has been basically clear, that is, 200000 tons sliding tariff+894000 tons 1% tariff, and the total amount of cotton imports is stable.

Second, the cotton output forecast of Xinjiang in 2024/25 has been continuously raised, the supply has grown rapidly, the demand gap has become smaller and smaller, and the dependence on imported cotton has decreased. According to statistics, as of December 12, 2024, Xinjiang has processed nearly 5.09 million tons of lint in 2024/25, a year-on-year increase of about 19%. Some cotton related enterprises estimate that the annual output may reach 640-6.5 million tons.

Third, China's demand for imported cotton may fall sharply in 2025. After Trump came to power, he will impose additional tariffs on Chinese imports, which has raised market concerns about the decline of Chinese cotton demand. In addition, the United States will probably impose an additional 10% tariff on imports from Vietnam, Pakistan, Bangladesh and other countries (Mexico and Canada will also be subject to additional tariffs), which has a relatively large indirect impact on China's textile and clothing traceability list exported to the United States and the European Union. Therefore, it is predicted that China's cotton import volume may decline in 2024/25.