Pay Attention To The Development Trend Of Global 2025 Cotton Trade Industry

The cotton trade industry has great development opportunities. How to drive the internal development momentum of the industry?

As an important global economic crop and textile raw material, cotton trade activities are widespread in the world. It includes not only spot trading, but also financial derivatives markets such as futures trading.

In recent years, the increasing uncertainty of the global international trade environment has had a negative impact on the cotton market. In addition, the slowdown in domestic economic growth has also led to weak growth in cotton consumption. A number of economic stimulus policies issued by the state are conducive to the recovery of commodity demand and have a positive impact on the cotton market. At the same time, the regulation and control policies of the cotton textile industry also deserve attention.

Cotton trade refers to the buying and selling activities of cotton as a commodity in the market. Cotton trade involves cotton planting, purchase, storage, transportation, processing and sales, as well as related financial, insurance, legal and other services. As an important global economic crop and textile raw material, cotton trade activities are widespread in the world. It includes not only spot trading, but also financial derivatives markets such as futures trading. Development Status of Cotton Trade Industry and Analysis of Import and Export Market

Cotton planting is the starting point of trade. Growers choose planting varieties and areas according to market demand and expected income. The purchase involves transactions with growers to ensure that the quality and quantity of cotton meet the market demand. The purchased cotton needs to be stored to ensure its quality is not damaged. At the same time, the transportation link will transport cotton from the origin to the consumption place or export port.

After processing (such as seed removal, cleaning, packaging, etc.), cotton becomes a suitable raw material for textile. Processors sell processed cotton to textile enterprises or traders. Many countries not only carry out cotton trade in the domestic market, but also actively participate in international cotton trade. This involves cross-border transportation, tariffs, trade agreements and other aspects.

According to the data released by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the total global cotton output in 2024/25 is expected to reach 25.295 million tons, an increase of 686000 tons over the previous year, or 2.8%. The output of major cotton producing countries such as Brazil, the United States and China has increased to a certain extent. Among them, Brazil increased 486000 tons significantly, up 15.3% year on year; The US increased 463000 tons significantly, up 17.6% year on year.

The global cotton consumption is expected to be 25.087 million tons, an increase of 304000 tons or 1.2% over the previous year. Although the consumption has increased, the overall growth is sluggish, mainly due to the slowdown of global economic growth and the increased uncertainty of the international trade environment. The global ending inventory is expected to be 16.493 million tons, an increase of 252000 tons or 1.6% year on year. The inventory consumption ratio rose slightly, indicating that the loose supply and demand pattern of the global cotton market will continue.

According to the Research Report on Deep Research and Development Trend Forecast of China's Cotton Trade Industry from 2023 to 2028 issued by China Research Puhua Industry Research Institute

China's cotton production is expected to increase year on year, mainly due to the increase of cotton planting area in Xinjiang cotton region and the fact that the production area is less affected by extreme weather. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the national cotton output in 2024 will be 6.164 million tons, an increase of 546000 tons or 9.7% over the previous year. Domestic cotton consumption is expected to decline slightly compared with the same period last year. Although it is still above the historical average, the growth momentum is insufficient. This is mainly affected by the slowdown of domestic economic growth and the transformation and upgrading of the textile industry.

Due to the increase of domestic cotton production, the demand for imported cotton is relatively reduced. However, considering the difference in quality between domestic cotton and imported cotton and the actual demand of textile enterprises, imported cotton still occupies a certain market share. Domestic cotton inventory is relatively loose as a whole, commercial inventory increases month on month, and industrial inventory of textile enterprises decreases month on month. This is mainly affected by the centralized listing of new cotton and weak market demand.

The loose supply and demand pattern of the global cotton market will continue, and cotton prices will be under pressure due to sufficient supply and weak demand. However, with the gradual recovery of the global economy and the transformation and upgrading of the textile industry, the cotton market still has great development potential. The cotton output and export volume of Brazil, the United States and other major cotton producing countries have an important impact on international cotton prices. In particular, the high yield and high export expectations of Brazilian cotton make the international cotton price lack of upward drive.

Forecast of future development prospects of cotton trade market

It is expected that in 2025, the international cotton market will remain a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The sustained growth of cotton production in Brazil is expected to continue to depress international cotton prices. However, with the boost of domestic macro policies and the evolution of Sino US trade relations, there may be some opportunities for the domestic cotton market to rebound.

To sum up, the current market situation of cotton trade industry is characterized by loose supply and demand and weak growth. However, with the gradual recovery of the global economy, the transformation and upgrading of the textile industry and the boost of domestic macro policies, the market still has great development potential. Investors need to pay close attention to market dynamics and policy changes to develop reasonable investment strategies.