Review Of Domestic Cotton Market Trend Since The Beginning Of The Year

The results of the second survey of cotton planting intention conducted by China Cotton Association in 2025 show that the area of cotton planting intention in China is 44.366 million mu, an increase of 0.8% year on year and 0.1 percentage point higher than the previous period. Among them, Xinjiang increased by 1.5% year on year, the Yangtze River basin decreased by 4.3%, and the Yellow River basin decreased by 6.7%. The target price policy in Xinjiang provides guarantee for cotton farmers' income, and the income is stable to support their enthusiasm for planting. In addition to the decline in prices of tomatoes, corn and other crops last year, some farmers switched to cotton planting. The high temperature and unfavorable rainfall in the mainland last year led to low yield per unit area, lower than expected planting income, frustrated enthusiasm of cotton farmers, coupled with low mechanization, serious aging of cotton farmers, and continued to shrink the area of cotton planting intention.

As of January 31, the national cotton sales progress has reached 99.5%, of which Xinjiang has completed all new cotton sales, and the Yangtze River basin has entered the final stage, with the sales progress of 98.2%, basically flat year-on-year, and the Yellow River basin sales progress of 82.1%, 0.6 percentage points faster year-on-year.

In January, the acquisition in Xinjiang was basically completed, and the processing came to an end. Most ginning plants have completed processing work. Those that have not finished at the end of the month are also preparing for the Spring Festival holiday, and the daily processing volume has dropped to about 10000 tons. The purchase price of seed cotton fell month on month due to the decline of tail flower quality and other factors. The average monthly purchase price of 3128 grade seed cotton of national 400 type cotton processing enterprises was 5.3 yuan/kg, down 28.4% year on year and 11.5% month on month; The purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton was 5.2 yuan/kg, down 29.1% year on year and 12.1% month on month; The purchase price of seed cotton in the mainland was 6.6 yuan/kg, down 18.1% year on year and 3.2% month on month.

In January, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the output of yarn, cloth and other products declined month on month, and the accumulation of finished products eased. The survey of sample enterprises by China Cotton Association shows that the output of pure cotton yarn in this month fell 3.9% month on month, down 7.1% year on year; The output of pure cotton decreased by 5.7% month on month and 9.2% year on year. The price of pure cotton yarn fell year on year and month on month. The average price of 32 domestic pure cotton yarns in January was 21113 yuan/ton, down 1652 yuan year on year and 97 yuan month on month; The average price of 32 imported pure cotton yarns in January was 21883 yuan/ton, down 1027 yuan year on year and 77 yuan month on month.

In January, new cotton continued to come on the market, with loose market supply and increased commercial inventory. Textile enterprises properly stocked up before the festival, and industrial inventory increased slightly. By the end of January, the commercial inventory of cotton nationwide had reached 5.747 million tons, an increase of 180 thousand tons year on year and 62 thousand tons month on month. Some yarn and cloth traders and downstream enterprises have certain expectations for the market sales after the year, and the raw material purchase is more active. The textile enterprises' industrial inventory of cotton in the warehouse is 980000 tons, an increase of 83000 tons year on year and 11000 tons month on month.

In the first ten days of January, the supply of new cotton continued to be loose, and the domestic cotton price continued to decline; Cotton yarn sales improved in the middle and late ten days, and enterprises actively replenished stocks before the festival to prepare for production after the festival, driving up cotton prices. The international cotton price fluctuated and fell under the influence of factors such as the strengthening of the US dollar and the increase in global cotton production in the USDA monthly report, and the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices widened. The average monthly price of China's cotton price index (CCIndex3128B) was 14721 yuan/ton, down 1969 yuan year on year and 228 yuan month on month; Cotlook The monthly average price of index A was 78.2 cents/pound, down 15.2% year on year and 2.2% month on month, and the tariff price of 1% was 13840 yuan/ton, which was 881 yuan lower than the domestic cotton price. The price difference was 88 yuan larger than that of the previous month.