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The Domestic Macro-Economy Started Well, And Cotton Procurement May Tend To Be Cautious In The Later Stage

2025/4/20 14:18:00 0

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Summary This week, domestic cotton futures prices stabilized, spot prices were weak, and international cotton prices rebounded slightly. The price trend of cotton yarn at home and abroad is differentiated, and the outer yarn is stronger than the inner yarn. The United States announced that it would postpone the expropriation of countries that did not take retaliatory action “ Reciprocal tariff ” After the tariff exemption of some products, the market panic has temporarily improved, and Southeast Asian countries may speed up “ Scramble for exit ” The pace is expected to stimulate the growth of cotton demand in the international market in the short term and play a supporting role in the international cotton price. In contrast, China's external demand for textiles and clothing may shrink and lead to a reduction in cotton consumption demand and weak prices.

1、 Price review

This week, the United States continued to increase tariffs on China to a cumulative level 245% The Ministry of Commerce of China said it would ignore the US tariff number game. The domestic cotton market gradually digested the news of tariffs imposed by China and the United States. The planting of new cotton in the production areas was generally smooth, and the downstream textile market maintained just in need of replenishment. The trend of cotton futures prices tended to be stable, while spot prices were weak. Average settlement price of main contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures twelve thousand eight hundred and seventy-one element / Ton, up from the previous week nine element / Ton, increase 0.1% ; national cotton price representing the market price of standard lint in the mainland B Average price of index fourteen thousand two hundred and twenty-three element / Ton, down from the previous week one hundred and eighty-seven element / Ton, decline 1.3% 。

In the international market, with the United States suspending the levy on some trading partners “ Reciprocal tariff ” As well as exempting some products, the market panic has eased. Boosted by peripheral markets and four month seventeen Data from the US Department of Agriculture in Japan showed that the weekly contracted volume of US cotton increased significantly, and the international cotton price rose for three consecutive days. On the whole, the average price of that week was still lower than that of the previous week. Average settlement price of main contract of cotton futures in New York sixty-six point two four cent / Pounds, down from the previous week zero point three three cent / Pounds, drop 0.5% International cotton index representing the average CIF price of imported cotton in China's main ports（ M ）Average price seventy-four point seven cent / Pounds, converted into RMB import cost twelve thousand nine hundred and ninety-nine element / Tons by 1% Tariff calculation, excluding port miscellaneous and freight), down from the previous week ten element / Ton, decline 0.1% . The domestic cotton price is higher than the international cotton price one thousand two hundred and twenty-four element / Tons.
The price of domestic cotton yarn continued to fall, while the price of foreign yarn stopped falling and turned up. This week, domestic C32S Average price of plain combed cotton yarn two hundred and five seventeen element / Ton, down from the previous week one thirty element / Ton, decline 0.6% ; Average price of conventional outer yarn twenty-one six hundred and thirty element / Ton, up from the previous week one ninety-nine element / Ton, increase zero 9% The average price of conventional outer yarn is higher than that of domestic yarn one thousand one hundred and thirteen element / Tons, larger than the previous week three hundred and twenty-nine element / Tons. Price of polyester staple fiber sixty-three fifty-two element / Ton, down from the previous week sixty-two element / Ton, decline 1% 。

2、 Market situation outlook

The United States delayed the collection of tariffs to stimulate short-term demand, and international cotton prices may usher in repair. US delay ninety High amount is levied on some trading partners every day “ Reciprocal tariff ” And entered the stage of centralized negotiation, becoming a textile and clothing producer in Southeast Asia “ Scramble for exit ” And American purchasers have created time and space for hoarding goods, which may stimulate the growth of cotton consumption demand in the short term. According to foreign media sources, the Indian Cotton Production and Consumption Commission proposed to the Indian government to cancel or suspend 11% To send a positive signal to the US government; Pakistan is seeking to increase US cotton imports to avoid the uncertainty of future tariffs. It is expected that the international cotton price will go out of the repair market under the support of consumer demand in the near future. However, in the long run, international cotton prices are facing many upward obstacles. First, the market is still worried about the adverse impact of the US tariff policy on global textile and clothing consumption demand; Second, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said this week that he would not consider cutting interest rates to curb inflation; Third, a large number of cotton in the southern hemisphere will come into the market in the next three months.

The domestic macro-economy started well, and cotton procurement may tend to be cautious in the later period. This week's domestic economic data will be released in a centralized way. The first quarter's GDP（ gross domestic product ）Year on year growth 5.4% And highlight the resilience and potential of China's economy. three The domestic retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats, knitwear and textiles in China in June were one thousand two hundred and forty RMB 100 million, with year-on-year growth 3.6% ; Export volume of textile and clothing two hundred and thirty-four US $100 million, up year-on-year 12.9% However, in view of the escalating Sino US trade war, it is expected that the external demand for cotton textile products will decline, and the willingness of textile enterprises to purchase cotton will weaken. According to preliminary investigation, four Percentage of enterprises surveyed by sampling at the beginning of the month ready to purchase cotton 39.5% , month on month decrease thirteen point three Percentage points, a year-on-year decrease four point three Percentage points. From the perspective of cotton planting, four The cotton planting in China has gradually entered the peak period since September, and the sowing time in Xinjiang is earlier than last year. Although some areas in southern Xinjiang have suffered from strong wind and dust weather recently, the impact is relatively limited. It is expected that the cotton planting area in Xinjiang will increase this year compared with last year. On the whole, domestic cotton prices are still under downward pressure in the near future. In the future, we need to pay attention to whether changes in domestic cotton planting and the boosting effect of domestic demand expansion policies on the textile and clothing industry can provide effective support for cotton prices.