Market Trends: Focus On The "Three Consecutive Drops" Of China'S Cotton Imports In March

In March, China's cotton imports declined month on month, which is also the third consecutive month of decline in cotton imports this year. The external market is unstable. The US tariff measures make it difficult for the global textile chain trade to develop stably. Domestic cotton importers reduce the order of pre purchased imported cotton, and some textile and clothing export enterprises reduce the order intake, thus reducing the inventory of foreign cotton raw materials. These factors are the main factors causing the decline of cotton import.

The cotton import volume in March fell month on month

According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs, China's cotton import volume in March 2025 was 73700 tons, down 36.14% month on month and 81.42% year on year. Due to the small amount of import cotton quotas issued last year, and some businesses expected the domestic textile industry to export or face tariff pressure before Trump took office, the attitude of imported cotton remained cautious, especially since China began to levy tariffs on American cotton in March, which further reduced the import scale. As a result, cotton imports dropped for three consecutive times. From January to March 2025, China imported 337900 tons of cotton, with a year-on-year decrease of 67.40%. In addition, domestic export textiles face high tariffs, and the demand for foreign cotton has declined.

Export and foreign trade are generally limited, and the number of imported cotton varieties is reduced

The United States has imposed tariffs on China and other cotton consuming countries, which has impacted the stability of the global cotton textile market, and also caused the trade between other textile consuming countries to be unable to proceed normally, thus increasing the transmission resistance of commodity circulation in the entire industry. From the quantity of cotton import sources in March, the import quantity of American cotton, Brazilian cotton and Australian cotton decreased by 39.82%, 35.14% and 44.85% respectively compared with February. Due to the lack of cost performance advantage of American cotton and the increase of tariffs, the proportion of American cotton in the total import volume in March was 19.46%, while that of Brazilian cotton has reached 59.98%.

In March, the proportion of imported materials processing trade decreased significantly

From the perspective of the mode of cotton import trade, the proportion of cotton imported through processing trade with imported materials in March was significantly lower than that in February, and the proportion of imported and exported goods from general trade and bonded supervision places increased. Specifically, in March, the proportions of inbound and outbound goods in bonded supervision places, logistics goods in customs special supervision areas, general trade and imported material processing trade were 44.27%, 31.83%, 21.16% and 2.74% respectively. The impact of shrinking orders of some foreign trade export enterprises may be reflected in the cotton import through processing trade with supplied materials.

The impact of US tariff measures and policy uncertainty will lead to a significant slowdown in the global economy in the short term. On April 22 local time, the International Monetary Fund released the latest World Economic Outlook Report, which lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% at the beginning of the year to 2.8%. Domestic export-oriented textile enterprises are disturbed by tariffs, or further adjust the purchase scale and process of imported cotton. Although the United States recently said that it might reduce tariffs on China, the pace of adjustment of cotton imports is relatively slow, and it is expected that the cotton import volume in the first half of the year may significantly reduce.