Increased Probability Of Stage Concussion Finishing

Last week, the market volume rose sharply, a strong breakthrough, the major indexes staged a new high show, blue chips and growth stocks go hand in hand, the hot plate showed a good round effect, the field of money making effect has been fully expanded, multi party sentiment is generally high, the OTC capital run again to provide a strong liquidity support for the big upside operation, A share market consistency is expected to better.

As of Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3617.32 points, rising 7.25% in a week, 12544.45 points in Shenzhen, and 7.09% in a week.

Disk observation, last week, the two cities hot plate launched in full swing, the market sentiment is heating up again, financial stocks in the industry good news constantly, and China Ping an annual report is expected to send high news to stimulate the steady rise, and colored, coal, steel, electricity, real estate and other cyclical stocks have the opportunity to be able to show.

The ability to absorb gold continued to expand; logistics, medicine, computers and other blue chips also worked one after another, while the theme concept represented by new materials, along the way, industry 4 and Internet + continued a high degree of activity, and growth stocks highlighted the strong and strong characteristics, which is constantly stimulating the field to do more enthusiasm.

On the whole, there is a good rotation characteristic among the major sectors. The hot spot agglomeration effect and the money making effect continue to expand, and continuously enhance the attractiveness of the two tier market to OTC funds. No matter from the daily turnover of more than one trillion yuan or the reintegration of the two financial funds, we can see signs of accelerating entry of external capital, and the demand for capital allocation to equities has increased rapidly, which has also provided enough quantity protection to the market.

At present, the liquidity adequacy and strong reform atmosphere provide a continuous upward momentum for the A share market. No matter from the financial reform, the reform of state-owned enterprises, or the continuous support for emerging industries, the investors are more clearly aware that the problem of overcapacity in the traditional industries is being solved through various channels. The emerging industries such as Internet, software and computers have continuously infiltrated the economy at various levels, and the production end and consumer side have undergone profound changes. The A share market with all kinds of expectations will be able to reflect the changes brought about by this economic structural adjustment and industrial upgrading with a clearer investment thread.

Recently, the one trillion local debt replacement plan announced by the Ministry of finance has eased the debt problem of the local government financing platform, which has plagued the market for many years. The pressure of corporate liabilities and bank assets is expected to be reduced, and the operation of monetary policy will continue to be wide. This will help push the valuation level of A listed companies to move upward.

Since the market successfully broke through 3478 important pressure levels, the volume and price rise has further confirmed the upward trend of the mid term operation, and the index intraday shock can cause bargain intervention.

Strong follow-up.

However, on the other hand, the market itself can not go all the way up, and proper technical modification is very beneficial to the in-depth operation of the market.

Although the overall operation of the whole market last week evolved from the previous blue chip and growth seesaw features to the situation of hand in hand, we still can not ignore the difference between the two, especially in the latter two trading days, the index intensified in the intraday market, and the demand for technical adjustment of the high value growth stocks increased. Although the strong pull of the stock market on Friday temporarily concealed the potential requirements of the risk assessment of the overvalued varieties, the upsurge of multi emotions and hot money can delay the extrusion time of the bubble, but we can not ignore the risk. From the valuation level of the motherboard and the gem, the average price earnings ratio of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was about 16 times that of the beginning of the year.

P / E ratio has increased from 70 times to 90 times from the beginning of the year, and the difference between the two has accelerated. The valuation level of most growth stocks over 100 times also reflects that there is a very strong speculative atmosphere in the current market.

Therefore, in the upward trend of the market, it is also necessary to digest the potential repression of the lucrative profit market through proper technical adjustment or intraday shock.

Technically, at present, the market has stood at 3600 points, and the volume and price have demonstrated the current strong characteristics. The K-line system has returned to the multi head arrangement and diverged upward, and MACD, KDJ, RSI and other technical indicators have been strong upward.

It is worth noting that after the rapid breakthrough of the strong pressure level in the Shanghai stock market after 3400-3478 points in the past few years, the position of eight strong companies has continued to force up and down. During the period, the position has not been properly identified. However, from a technical point of view, the important pressure level lacks such a process. On the one hand, the lucrative profit drive has never cleaned up the burden of the upward movement of the market, on the other hand, the excessive excessive consumption of multi chips has made a deep and unfavorable impact on the market, and the upward trend of the short-term market has been restrained.

In terms of investment strategy, the upward trend of the market is expected to continue, and the possibility of phased shock consolidation will gradually increase. The technical consolidation in bull market will also provide operational opportunities for some investors or stock swap funds.

We suggest that on the basis of grasping the balance of positions, we should take into consideration the high value of overweight or high positions. We should consider increasing the cash yield and appropriately increasing the allocation needs of the blue chip stocks. We can pay close attention to the varieties that have not been accumulated in recent years, such as finance and real estate. The growth stocks should pay attention to the short-term risks. At the same time, the technology stocks should be selected as the first choice in the medium term, and new investment in theme materials, energy saving, environmental protection, and all the other areas will be repeated.