09 Year Investment Attention To New Traps

As 2008 draws to a close, the fund companies are preparing for the battle in 2009.

After investigation and statistics of fund managers in the industry, the fund is least optimistic about eight major sectors, such as banking, infrastructure, highways, shipping, steel, coal, nonferrous metals and export-oriented manufacturing.

From the strategy of exclusion and some fund managers, they know that they are more optimistic about consumption, medicine, science and technology services and other industries.

The consumption, medicine and clothing are favored by the company, and the fund managers are not optimistic about what sectors they are looking for by using the exclusion method.

Yin Zhe said: "it depends on the government's anti cyclical effect, and then look at the pformation of economic structure. I am optimistic about technology services in the long run."

"The gap between the main sectors of the market is not significant at present. In terms of industry selection, from top to bottom, the industry that benefits commodity prices to fall, exports are relatively small, and investment is obvious" should be a direction of allocation. New industries such as new energy, technological innovation, high value-added, energy saving and consumption reduction, which need to be vigorously developed, need long-term attention.

In addition, a relatively stable growth and a clear domestic demand consumer industry is also the first choice for defensive allocation.

The fund manager, who does not want to be named, said: "if the investor's goal is to make money in the short term, it will go in and out quickly. I am more optimistic about the pharmaceutical stocks. Investors can pay close attention to the policy hotspots, but I think it is better to look at the current opportunity.

If we are based on a long line, investors will buy funds and make fixed investment.

Tian Qing, the core selection and appointed fund manager of Jianxin, said: "I think in the general direction, we need to increase our defensiveness, but we cannot unilaterally emphasize the defensive nature.

Now we are more optimistic about the railway, medicine and other sectors, simply speaking from the industry, these plates are indeed counter cyclical characteristics, but if their stock prices have been fully reflected, then the choice of these stocks may not bring excess returns to investors.

Therefore, Tian Qing is biased in two aspects, on the one hand, to see the industry's defensive properties, to see whether their valuations are fully reflected; on the other hand, to find the overly wrongly killed stocks from the periodic stock.

In the course of the interview, Tian Zhi fund advised investors: "because the economy is hard to tell the bottom, and whether the market is bottoming out or will soon be bottomed out, we need further observation. In this case, the choice of positions can not be radical.

While actively defending, we also need to flexibly adjust our positions and appropriately participate in rebounding investment opportunities.

For the fund investors, it is also recommended to maintain prudent and flexible operation ideas. In the short term market uncertainty, the fixed income products such as bond funds and money market funds are relatively ideal investment types.

There are still many companies that need to be cautious in their cyclical and export oriented strategies, and many fund managers also say they are not optimistic about some of the cyclical industries.

"We do not think highly of some industries with strong cyclical strength," he said.

"I am not particularly optimistic about the cyclical industry," ran LAN, executive director of Shenzhen investment and Finance Co, said.

In fact, any industry has the opportunity to see whether there are enough attractive prices and opportunities for development in the future.

For example, after 3000 points, the investment in the cyclical industry should be relatively cautious.

In addition to cyclical industries, export-oriented manufacturing is also a big worry for many funds.

Xia Chun, deputy general manager and strategist of the Ministry of research, said: "the growth rate of Chinese manufacturing investment will decline sharply in the future. This round of capacity adjustment will be more painful than the previous one. Too much capacity will take longer to digest and quit.

In the next two years, the growth rate of investment in the manufacturing sector will decline sharply, or even negative growth. "

He also pointed out that the role of the economic stimulus policy is limited, and if it is not properly handled, China's economy will be at risk of deflation.

As a large number of production capacity needs to be withdrawn, the intermediate demand will shrink, and the role of the economic stimulus policy will also be limited. If monetary policy can not relax in time, the economy will soon fall into the risk of deflation.

The fund managers, who do not want to be named, have made two different analyses of the manufacturing and raw materials industries. He said: "the most undesirable ones in manufacturing are two out of the way manufacturing and manufacturing industries, but the manufacturing industry with high technology and heavy industry is better.

The industry of raw materials should also be differentiated. Many imported products are priced according to the global market, and they will not perform well with international prices. However, many export industries, such as aluminum, will not be able to perform well in the future.

The company also expressed some concerns about the industries such as nonferrous metals and coal, HSBC Jinxin fund company.

"In the next 4 trillion years, the government's investment in the context of the future, the outlook for the long-term economic outlook has changed, but what is ahead is that the steel industry's four quarter inventory impairment, the prices of coal, nonferrous metals, real estate and other resources, and other enterprises are negatively affected by the profits, and it really affects the valuation of investors.

Therefore, the future market will undergo repeated shocks under the support of policies and valuations and macro and micro fundamentals.

Wang Yawei, the manager of Huaxia Fund, is not optimistic about the banking industry.

He believes that the current macro-economy is in a downward stage, and that the operation of enterprises in various industries is not optimistic, so the probability of bad debts appearing in the banking sector will increase significantly in the future.

Deciding the height of the water in the barrel is the shortest piece of wood.

The worst industry decides the risk of bad debts of the banking sector, so he will not buy bank shares.

A fund manager, who did not want to be named, said: "I am not optimistic about the banking sector. The main reason is that the interest rate differential will obviously reduce the profit margins of banks.

They are also more concerned about the risk of bad debts, so they avoid the banking sector.

With regard to the infrastructure sector, Wang Yawei expressed great caution in the recent construction of the infrastructure sector, which was strongly stimulated by "4 trillion investment".

Wang Yawei believes that the short-term stimulus to the industry will artificially change the long-term investment plan and cycle of the infrastructure industry as a result of the fiscal "4 trillion domestic demand stimulus plan".

Part of the big drive to drive the entire market up, this responsibility is too great, will undermine the stability of the development of the infrastructure industry, so that its future valuation level will be reduced, so that the infrastructure industry will have strong cyclical fluctuations.

Dr. Yin Zhe, chief analyst of Taida silver bank fund, said: "at present, we still need to invest in infrastructure and cement stocks. As for next year, we will see whether the speculation is good or not, then we will see the speed of speculation.

Next year's economic situation may be unexpected, not necessarily so pessimistic, so it is possible to seize all sectors.

Wang Yawei also mentioned that for the pport infrastructure industry, such as airports and expressways, which will increase the supply of large quantities, there may be long-term overcapacity and downturn in the future, which needs to be avoided.

The fund managers, who do not want to be named, added: "the subdivision industries of roads and railways in the pportation industry should be treated differently. For example, the road may be relatively sluggish in the future, and the railway may perform well. For example, China Railway (601390 market, love shares, main force movement) is expected to be fine in the next two or three years."

Shipping is not so lucky. Another analyst who does not want to be named said that because of the uncertainty of the global economy, shipping companies may take a wait-and-see attitude and do not purchase ships. At the same time, after a few years of high growth, the proportion of the global shipping manufacturers holding orders to the global pport capacity has reached a peak and gradually dropped, and the subprime crisis has also affected the shipping companies' credit support.

The shipbuilding industry is deeply affected by the global economic boom.

For example, Chinese ships (600150 market, love shares, main trend), it is currently the world's second output of shipbuilding companies, greater impact.