Clothing Exports "Cold Winter" Has Just Begun.

China's textile and garment industry is unhappy this year.

Cai Minqiang, chairman of China's wedding dress gowns and chairman of Guangdong Rui Rui group, is also worried.

During the Canton Fair, Cai Minqiang told reporters in an exclusive interview that the continued appreciation of the renminbi has made clothing exporting enterprises at a loss.

Yangcheng Evening News: China's textile industry has arrived in the cold winter, where is the coldest "cold wave" coming from?

Cai Minqiang: last year, many people said that the severe winter has come. I think at best it is only cold. This year it is really cold, and the cold winter has just begun.

The continued appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar is, of course, the coldest "cold wave".

The textile and garment industry will take half a year from sample paction to next order, and from the order to shipment, there will be 60-90 natural delivery dates.

After the RMB exchange rate reform, this "ecological balance" was broken: the quarterly price is still being implemented, and the foreign exchange rate of the original quoted price has been far from the original quoted price.

In the past few seasons, enterprises did not have quarterly quotations to keep up with the pace of RMB appreciation.

Yangcheng Evening News: where is the bottom line for garment exporting enterprises?

Cai Minqiang: now the textile industry can make profits from those diversified enterprises, and profits actually come from real estate and other industries.

If the yuan rises to 6 yuan against the US dollar next year, it means that the "exchange cost" of the company, that is, the cost of making the US dollar back to the renminbi, has risen 30% since its appreciation.

I estimate that there will be a big industry reshuffle in the next two years. No matter big, medium or small enterprises, as long as products, business, management and funds have problems, they will go out.

Yangcheng Evening News: RMB appreciation, what is the most difficult for enterprises to adapt to?

Cai Minqiang: blunt knife cuts meat!

The pain is only the most clear.

The exchange rate reform is almost three years, and the magnitude of appreciation is from small earthquakes to large earthquakes.

Export quotes can not keep up with the pace of RMB appreciation. Enterprises can not predict the outcome of pactions. Uncertainty is the biggest risk.

When does the so-called slow appreciation really slow down?

Which export enterprise can thrive after cutting meat for five or six years?

When economists sing the praises of slow appreciation, do they think of the fact that "Chinese exporters have no price initiative at all?"

Yangcheng Evening News: RMB appreciation, export enterprises collective price increase can not be?

Cai Minqiang: it's hard to raise prices.

After a few months, the foreign exchange rate will be quoted.

After six months, the renminbi appreciated again, and the guests said that the price was difficult to modify in the market.

It would be a bad idea not to increase the price later.

Buyers and sellers can only come to a compromise and take half of them. (Lenovo thinks that when the RMB depreciated in the 90s of last century, the customer asked for a reduction in price. Do we not want to cut the price by half?

In the first year, it can still be maintained for second years, but in third years (2008), many domestic production enterprises will not be able to sustain it.

Yangcheng Evening News: is it possible to abandon the dollar settlement?

Cai Minqiang: don't forget, the risk of settlement in euros is also great.

In recent years, the exchange rate of the euro has reached almost 90%.

As a matter of fact, China's national strength and influence should rise, and the export quotas should be promoted.

In the second half of last year, some small businesses have adopted this way.

In addition, "monthly quotations" or "weekly quotes" are also being tried.

Yangcheng Evening News: not long ago, once the textile and garment export tax rebate was further lowered, how do you see the tax rebate reform?

Cai Minqiang: what we should discuss now is whether the export tax rebate policy should be abolished.

Over the past decade, the export tax rebate for clothing has long been no longer a supply to Chinese enterprises. After buyers compete to reduce prices, they actually supply foreign buyers.

If the export tax rebate is abolished before the appreciation of the renminbi, the price of the export enterprises will be raised once and for all, and the effect will be equivalent to the 14% to 15% appreciation of the RMB.

When I put forward this view three years ago, many people were emotionally unacceptable.

Fortunately, the slow appreciation of the renminbi and the slow export tax rebate will double the damage.

I always believe that, in due course, the adjustment of export tax rebate policy should be cancelled step by step.