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The Aftermath Of The Subprime Crisis Has Affected China'S Textile And Clothing Exports To The US.

2008/4/23 15:27:00 21

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The Aftermath Of The Subprime Crisis Has Affected China'S Export Of Textile And Clothing To The United States.

In 2008 1~2, China exported 26 billion 345 million US dollars of textiles and clothing, an increase of only 9.59% over the same period last year, the lowest growth rate for the whole industry in the current period since 2002.

In addition to the accelerated appreciation of the renminbi, the export tax rebate and interest rate increase and other macro control policies, the prices of labor, raw materials, energy and other production factors have risen comprehensively, and domestic factors such as snowstorms and Spring Festival are coming.

It can be said that China's industry is experiencing the most severe cold demand of international market demand in recent years.

Subprime mortgage crisis leads to weak consumption

In 2008, the consequences of the subprime crisis began to spread in many areas of the world, and the impact exceeded expectations.

According to the latest global financial stability report of the International Monetary Fund, the subprime mortgage crisis is spreading beyond the subprime mortgage market to the areas of high quality residential and commercial real estate, consumer credit and credit markets at all levels.

Among them, the negative impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on consumer credit has led to a serious weakening of demand for international textiles and clothing.

Unlike developing countries such as China, people in developed countries are accustomed to credit consumption, and most of their consumption expenditure comes from bank personal consumption loans.

In the subprime crisis, the credit quality of every country deteriorated, and the bank's consumption credit was tightened.

At the same time, because of the wide spread of the debt crisis in the developed countries such as the United States, many residents suffered direct economic losses in the subprime crisis, and also seriously affected the consumer confidence of the residents.

Take the United States as an example. Since the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in the US in late 2007, China's total export volume to the US and the total export volume of textiles and clothing have decreased significantly.

The reason for this is that the US personal expenditure increased by 0.4% and 0.1% respectively in the first two months of 2008. The total retail sales in China decreased significantly, and in January 2008 and February respectively increased by 3.91% and 2.36%, respectively. But if the price rise factor was deducted, the total retail sales decreased by 0.35% and 1.61% compared with the same period last year. The demand for consumption actually shrinks in early 2008.

Specifically to the textile industry related consumer market, in December 2007, the growth rate of the total retail sales of apparel and apparel products in the United States dropped from the former 5%~8% to 0.2%, and in the first three months of 2008 increased by 0.7%, 0.5% and -1.58% respectively.

By analyzing the statistics of clothing and apparel products in the United States and China's export apparel products to the United States, it is found that the retail sales growth curve of the American clothing and apparel products has a high correlation with the export growth curve of Chinese clothing for two months, that is to say, the US retail market demand basically lagged behind for two months, which reflects our export to the United States.

According to this calculation, in 2008 1~2 months, China's exports to the US textile and clothing reflected the consumption situation of the United States in the month of 2007 11~12.

In the month of February, China's exports to the United States increased by more than 100 percentage points year-on-year, which corresponded to the lowest growth rate of us clothing consumption in December 2007.

High grain and oil prices affect textile consumption

While the subprime crisis affected personal consumption, international crude oil prices continued to maintain high volatility at the end of last year in 2008.

New York crude oil futures prices since the beginning of the beginning of a hundred years, has been in the 100~110 dollar / barrel high price adjustment, there is no indication of a callback.

The international market prices of grain products such as wheat, rice, corn and soybeans increased by more than 10% over the previous year at the end of 2007.

Entering the 2008, international grain prices continued to rise all the way, and the prices of wheat and rice approached the all-time high.

As the demand elasticity of gasoline and grain commodities is lower than that of most consumer goods, therefore, from the perspective of personal consumption, the rise in oil prices and grain prices is substantially increasing the expenditure of residents on gasoline and food, resulting in a decrease in other consumer goods, including less consumption of textiles and clothing.

Taking the US market as an example, because of the increase in oil prices and grain prices, the consumption of gasoline and food in the United States increased by 20.18% and 4.25% respectively in the year February 2008, representing a 0.2 percentage point increase in total consumption than in November 2007, while consumption in automobile, clothing and apparel products increased by -4.22% and 2.32% respectively.

US residents' spending on clothing products has slowed down or even declined. The demand for clothing imports in the United States has slowed down or negative growth.

Judging from the current situation, although the international market demand in 2008 is obviously weak trend is a foregone conclusion, but because of the complexity of the factors, the magnitude of the slowdown in international demand is still hard to predict.

Most of the economic circles believe that the US economy has a high risk of recession. In 2008, the growth rate of China's textile and clothing exports is likely to be lower than expected.

Judging from the current consumption situation in the United States, the total retail sales of clothing and apparel products in the United States rose slightly in the first two months of 2008, but according to the latest data released by the US, clothing consumption in March showed a negative year-on-year growth.

According to the conclusion that the US market lags behind two months' influence on China's clothing export by Qu Xianping, the growth rate of export clothing and the growth rate of textile and clothing in China in March were higher than that of the United States.

In fact, according to the recent bulletin issued by the Chinese customs, the growth rate of China's exports to the US has indeed risen to 5.4%, and the total export volume of textile and clothing has also risen to around 19%.

But according to the consumption situation in the United States,