Under The New Situation, The Export Of US Textiles Will Face Two Threats: Market Shrinkage And Trade Protection.
In May 6th, the second annual agreement for bidding for textile products exported to the United States began in 2008. Due to the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on the market and the fact that the US quota was not used at the end of this year, the textile companies were not enthusiastic in bidding.
During the interview, many people in charge of textile enterprises said that under the current "three rate, two price and one crisis" (exchange rate, export tax rebate rate, interest rate, raw material prices, labor prices, the US subprime mortgage crisis), the difficulty of export increased, especially for exports to the United States. The purchase orders of the US decreased significantly, and the quota era was expected to end.
US Customs statistics show that as of May 6th, the average customs clearance rate of the 21 categories of textiles quotas imposed by the United States on China was only 15.45%, far below the level of the same period last year. Reporters noted that from the overall situation of the quota market now, demand and volume are far from the same period last year. Popular categories US338/339, US347/348, US638/369 and US647/648, customs clearance rates are lower than the same period last year, including US443, US347/348, US447 and other categories of quotas far lower than last year.
"The US economic downturn may lead to negative growth in textile consumption and imports. In the next period of time, the growth of my apparel exports to the United States may slow down. " The Ministry of Commerce said recently.
Customs statistics also showed that China's exports of textiles and clothing totaled 36 billion 436 million US dollars in the first quarter, an increase of 17.7% over the same period last year. Due to the impact of the US economic downturn, the total exports of textiles and clothing to the United States in the previous March amounted to 4 billion 719 million US dollars, up 0.73% from the same period last year. Among them, the growth rate of exports to the United States declined significantly.
According to the analysis of the industry, since the subprime crisis, the demand for US retail market has decreased, and the order of buyers has thus been reduced, especially the export of high-end textiles and garments to the US has shrunk dramatically. At the same time, the difficulty of loans directly affects the capital turnover of us importers. Many American purchasers are required to postpone half a year's payment after arrival, which is unacceptable to small and medium sized enterprises whose funds are very tight. On the other hand, the accelerated appreciation of the renminbi, the sharp rise in production costs and the reduction of export tax rebates continue to compress corporate profits. Some enterprises do not dare to take orders easily, and some enterprises, in order not to stop production, even have to bear the pressure of losing money to take the lead, resulting in increasingly shrinking profits. It is noteworthy that the slowdown in exports to the US has benefited other competitors, such as India, Vietnam and Indonesia.
Cao Xinyu, vice president of the China Textiles Import and Export Chamber of Commerce, said that judging from the current situation, it is expected that the export situation to the US in the second half of this year is still grim. The impact of the subprime crisis on China's textile and clothing exports may even extend to the end of next year. He suggested that enterprises should overcome difficulties by enhancing value-added products, diversifying international markets and expanding domestic sales.
Experts believe that for most textile enterprises that can hardly be upgraded in the short term, conquering emerging markets should be the key direction of export development. The growth of export space in the European and American markets is limited. While consolidating the European and American markets, they can selectively shift export priorities to emerging markets, especially those in India, Russia, South Africa and Brazil with higher population base and consumption capacity, but they must adjust their export products structure in order to better adapt to the market demand of these emerging regions.
The textile agreement between China and the United States will expire at the end of this year after the EU's abolition of textile quotas. Cao Xinyu said that there is no official news that the quotas will be cancelled on schedule, but the US has no legal basis to impose quota restrictions on Chinese textiles. Under the new situation, the export of US textiles will be threatened by market shrinkage and trade protectionism.
It is reported that the textile industry in the United States has been studying the Countermeasures in a rush to launch new trade protection measures. At present, major textile groups in the United States have put forward various plans, including countervailing investigations, anti-dumping investigations, self initiated anti-dumping measures by the government based on monitoring plans, and safeguard measures for specific products (Clause 421). In addition, the results of the US presidential election will, to a certain extent, dominate the trend of the future textile trade policy. Once the Democratic presidential candidate comes to power, the textile industry will again become a victim of the US government's harsh stance on China's trade policy, and if the Republican candidate wins, the US textile industry's extensive restrictions will likely face more difficulties.
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