The Monthly Surplus Exceeded US $20 Billion, Or The Foreign Exchange Management Policy Has Been Adjusted.

In June 11th, the General Administration of Customs released the latest import and export statistics: in May, China's import and export increased significantly, its export growth rate was 28.1%, and its import growth rate was 40%. Under the influence of the two countries, the trade surplus in May reached US $20 billion 210 million, although it has decreased compared with the same period last year, but it still became the first month of this month, with a surplus of more than US $20 billion.

In fact, the money that flows into China through trade in goods this May may be even more alarming.

At present, the safe haven't released the latest number of foreign exchange reserves, but previous data show that as of the end of April, China's foreign exchange reserves amounted to US $1 trillion and 756 billion 640 million, of which, in April, the growth rate was US $74 billion 460 million, the largest increase in single month.

A staff member of the China Chamber of Commerce for import and export of mechanical and electrical products disclosed to our newspaper reporters that the Ministry of Commerce and the foreign exchange administration had convened some units to discuss the adjustment of foreign exchange management policies in the near future.

Since 2005, the continuous influx of hot money has delayed the improvement of China's balance of payments situation. Export advance payment and import deferred payment have become the tools of hot money inflow.

According to the latest international balance of payments released by the safe, in 2007, according to the statistics of the balance of payments, trade in goods was exported to US $12200, and imports amounted to US $904 billion 600 million, up 26% and 20% respectively over the previous year. The surplus was US $315 billion 400 million, an increase of 45%.

In the same period, in the statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, in 2007, China's goods trade was exported to US $1 trillion and 218 billion 16 million, with an import of US $955 billion 818 million and a surplus of US $262 billion 197 million.

"The difference between the statistics of international balance of payments and customs statistics is due to large amounts of export advance payment and import deferred payment, specifically, in the name of foreign advance payment, which is imported into the enterprise ahead of time, and the actual trade behavior may take a long time."

A former official of the foreign exchange system told our reporter that since China's foreign exchange management has long been "heavy import and light export", it is quite common to inject hot money into China through trade in goods in the name of export advance payment.

According to the report released by the safe, the balance of trade credit in China was $133 billion 100 million at the end of 2007.

Although it is difficult to trace, the doubt that exists in the external management system and business system is: "Chinese enterprises are not big in international scale and credit condition is not very good. Why are so many foreign companies willing to pay loans to Chinese enterprises ahead of time?"

The fact is that over the years, when the appreciation of the renminbi is expected to occur, the advance payment of Chinese enterprises will increase significantly.

In 2005, in order to control the inflow of hot money, the safe issued a notice on improving the management of export earmarked money and the management of foreign exchange receipts in the current stage. It requested that banks should pfer their accounts to the special account to be settled in foreign exchange accounts for a single amount equivalent to more than 200 thousand US dollars, which should not be included in the foreign exchange account management system.

At the time of settlement, the foreign exchange collection unit handles settlement by means of the customs export verification form.

In the case of large and overdue non receipt of foreign exchange, the safe conducts key supervision, strengthens the analysis, verification and investigation of abnormal conditions, and promptly pfers the foreign exchange control regulations to the foreign exchange inspection department.

But 3 years later, the lack of management of export advance payment has not been fundamentally solved.

At the relevant seminars held by the Ministry of Commerce and the safe, the officials explicitly stated that under the circumstances of the upside down of the US China interest rate and the expected appreciation of the renminbi, the influx of hot money has not been reduced. This policy adjustment is intended to reduce the adverse effects of hot money inflow on China's macro-economy.

A business system official said that the safe plan to further strengthen the supervision of export advance payment is mainly to find abnormal situations through checking data, and then to check the enterprises that violate the regulations. However, the official said that the adjustment of these policies will also bring certain influence to the normal operation of foreign trade enterprises.