Fine Adjustment Of Tax Rebate Policy In Textile Industry Has Different Effects.
Summary: the adjustment of export tax rebate policy is only the beginning of "fine adjustment". The market is expected to follow up policies such as the "three rural issues", energy saving and environmental protection, major equipment manufacturing and other supporting policies, high-tech preferential policies and so on.
The market expected policy adjustment has finally come.
In July 31st, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation formally issued the notice on adjusting the export rebate rate of some textiles and garments. The circular pointed out that after the approval of the State Council, the export tax rebate rate of some textiles and garments increased from 11% to 13%, and implemented in August 1, 2008.
The specific execution time shall be based on the export date specified by the Customs on the "Declaration of export goods (exclusive export tax refund)").
The adjustment of the export tax rebate policy can be regarded as an important positive signal issued by the management to carry out the "fine adjustment" for the specific economic situation, which means that the decision-making layer has finally entered the implementation stage of boosting the economy through thorough investigation, research, setting up, and decision making, marking the decision making layer's guidance for the future economic trend, and beginning to attach importance to fiscal policy as an important lever for macro adjustment and taking substantive actions.
It should be said that this will not be a case, but just the beginning of the "fine tuning". The market is expected to have follow-up policies, such as the "three rural issues", energy saving and environmental protection, major equipment manufacturing and other supporting policies, high-tech preferential policies and so on.
Government's hard choices
As we all know, the adjustment of the export tax rebate rate is one of the powerful means for the government to adjust the industrial policy. In recent years, the government has adjusted the export tax rebate policy several times according to the needs of foreign trade and the development of the industry.
Since 1985, the export tax rebate policy has been implemented in China, and the export tax rebate rate has been cut down to the current level of 11% for the 3 time since 2004.
In recent years, the export tax rebate for clothing was lowered by 2 percentage points in June 2007.
Since the first half of this year, due to the superposition effect of policy control, coupled with the continuous attack of high inflation and RMB appreciation in the first half of 2008, the export growth rate of textile and clothing and chemical fiber industry has slowed down significantly, and many enterprises are facing difficulties in survival.
Customs statistics show that in 2008 1~6, the export of clothing and accessories increased by 3.4%, while in the first quarter of 2008, the export of clothing and accessories increased by 11%. From the two quarter of 2008, the export of clothing and accessories increased considerably. In 2008, the export volume of 1~4 rose by 11.7% over the same period last year, while 1~5 months, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate dropped to 9.3%. At the end of the two quarter of 2008, the export growth rate further declined.
The sharp decline in export growth has made it difficult for enterprises to run smoothly through the industrial adjustment period simply relying on their own capabilities. This requires the government to introduce targeted support policies.
The policy of raising the export tax rebate rate is timely.
But raising the export tax rebate rate will give the disadvantaged enterprises on the edge of difficulties a "strong heart" to slow down the speed of industrial upgrading.
This is also the government's difficult choice in balancing the two aspects of employment and structural adjustment.
Enterprises can not enjoy their own good.
The increase of tax rebate rate can ease the pressure of export enterprises and increase the enthusiasm of enterprises to export, which will drive the growth of export volume and increase profits of enterprises.
According to the export tax rebate policy, no tax refund will be directly included in the production cost. Theoretically speaking, the export tax rebate rate will increase by a few percentage points, and the profit margin will rise by a few percentage points.
Guotai Junan analyst believes that if the static analysis assumes that the product price and the three fee of the enterprise remain unchanged, the export tax rebate rate will rise by 1 percentage points, representing an increase of 1 percentage points in the operating profit margin of the export products.
It is assumed that according to the 2008 textile and clothing export growth of 10%, general trade accounted for 70%, RMB 6.8 against the US dollar exchange rate projections, and 5 months after 2008, the whole industry will increase the pre tax profit by 7 billion 300 million yuan; if converted to adult data, the export rebate rate will be increased by 2 percentage points, the total profits of the whole industry will increase 14%, and the profit margin will be increased by 0.6 percentage points.
If dynamic considerations are taken, when foreign policy adjustments are made, foreign businessmen will always raise or lower product prices according to the intensity of policy adjustment.
That is to say, the profits or losses brought by policies should be shared or shared by foreign businessmen.
Therefore, the benefits of the above static calculation to the industry should be greatly reduced, and the 50%~80% of the above advantages can be roughly judged.
In the long run, the upward tax rebate rate will not change the downward trend of the industry's profit growth rate, nor will it have a significant impact on the annual earnings of listed companies, nor will it change the downward trend of export growth, but only slow down the pace of decline and lengthen the decline time.
Analysts believe that the impact of tax rebate rate increase on listed companies is related to two aspects: first, the proportion of export products, and the two is the profit margin of the company itself.
The higher the proportion of exports, the greater the impact, and the lower the net interest rate, the higher the sensitivity of tax rebates to performance.
According to the theoretical calculation of the tax rebate rate increase, Shenyin Wanguo believes that the textile and clothing companies that are more affected are: Mei Xinda, Lu Tai A, and black peony.
The companies affected by the chemical fiber industry are: China Textile investment, Chunhui shares, and Mei Da shares, but this is only due to the low net profit of the company itself, which has aroused high sensitivity to export tax rebates.
From the perspective of the company's long-term development, we should be optimistic about Huafeng spandex, Yantai spandex, Jiangnan high fiber and Halliday.
As the market has long anticipated the new deal, the stock price of the listed companies has been reflected in advance, so the good will be basically digested.
The influence of listed companies is different.
Shortly after the release of the policy, relevant listed companies also measured the impact of the policy.
Jiangsu Kaiyuan (600981) said that according to the financial sector estimates, the export tax rebate will affect the company from August 2008 to December, and the total profit will be around 2 million yuan.
Black Peony (600510) is expected to increase the company's total profit in the year of 2008 to about 3 million yuan.
Jiangsu sunshine (600220) said that under the premise that export prices remain unchanged, it is expected to increase pre tax profit script src=> in the second half of this year.
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