The Olympic Games Do Not Change The Economy
Discussions about the impact of the Olympic Games on the Chinese economy are still lingering.
In fact, as a huge economy, the impact of a sports event on the index and technology on the Chinese economy is not as great as it has attracted.
“后奧運”對中國經濟影響甚微
Many countries hosting Olympic Games will fall into the economic bubble brought by the "Post Olympic effect" and enter a longer economic downturn. This is because the host country has reached a high level of investment, and the investment will be greatly reduced after the Olympic Games. The employment opportunities and related industrial chains will also end. The huge number of people will have to find jobs again, resulting in a sharp increase in employment pressure. At this point, if there are projects that can continue to be used for investment, and these projects can be large enough to drive the host country's economic growth, the problem will not exist. Otherwise, the sharp decrease of investment will bring the economy into a long downturn.
So what's the impact on Beijing after the Olympic Games? To answer this question, we must analyze the scale of the investment in the Beijing Olympic Games and the proportion of the derived industries and employment and so on in the Chinese economy. According to the data of Beijing Statistics Bureau, Beijing accounts for less than 4% of China's GDP. The Olympic Games invested about 300000000000 yuan in seven years, and contributed less than 0.8% to Beijing's GDP growth rate, while Beijing's average GDP growth rate was 10% higher than that of Beijing. To put it another way, the Olympic economy with the characteristics of attention economy, brand economy and leveraging economy is improving the regional economic development with the help of short-term influence. The beneficiary is Beijing, the host city. The proportion of Beijing's total economic output in the national economic aggregate is relatively small, and the proportion of Olympic related investment in the total investment volume of the country is also small. So it will not have much effect on China's economy. The so-called "Post Olympic effect" will cause China's economic downturn or the post Olympic Games can still actively promote China's economy. Such pessimistic or optimistic predictions are unreasonable. After all, the trend of economic development is mainly determined by the fundamentals of the economy.
經濟基本形勢仍面臨考驗
The negative impact of the post Olympic effect on China's economy is very small. It does not mean that China's economic prospects are optimistic. On the contrary, the problems faced by China's economy still exist and need more attention. This is mainly manifested in the following aspects: the possible threat of inflation has not been completely eliminated, and the large-scale price control of "headache and pain" has not achieved the desired effect. And the future is not optimistic. The Academy of Social Sciences predicts that CPI will maintain an upward trend.
The irregularities in financial market management make the stock market sad. Most investors can not regard the stock market as a safe investment platform. Although the recent 6 Olympic Games host countries have been rising after the Olympic Games. The reason is that host countries tend to slow down industrial production, reduce inflation and reduce bond yields after the Olympic Games. A report by Davies Research UK pointed out that before the Olympics, the host countries were busy building infrastructure and expanding services, and they could take a breath after the Olympics. The increase in liquidity and the decrease in inflationary pressure have created favorable conditions for the rise of the stock market. " But after all, this is a short-term effect. In the long run, the capital market reform still has a long way to go.
The price turbulence of real estate still hamper the improvement of China's economy and people's quality of life. The restriction of land policy and banking policy makes the housing market incomplete and irrational, and then compresses people's enthusiasm for production and creation. A good policy is to win the best interests of both consumers and real estate vendors. However, the current policy makes the government and banks a big winner and consumers are overburdened. At present, restraining the rapid growth of housing prices is the main policy of the government, such as the price control of "one room, one price". However, it is the best way to solve the problem of housing marketization, government intervention and competition.
The rising price of energy and raw materials has an impact on the world economy. Comparatively speaking, China, as a big consumer country that can not be ignored as energy and raw materials, is more deeply affected. The US economic recession and the slowdown of the world economy have reduced the export market of China. For the Chinese economy relying on export led growth, it means not only losing an important driving force for growth, but also means reducing domestic or foreign investment. How to find new growth momentum to promote the continued rapid development of the economy has become a key consideration.
Perhaps the Olympic Games bring us not opportunities at the technological level, but the pioneering and trying in our thinking. As one of the representatives of the achievements of human civilization, the Olympic Games means to integrate into the human society with a more open attitude. Absorbing more advanced experience of developed economies and establishing and promoting a more rational distribution should be the greatest legacy left by the Olympic Games to the Chinese economy.
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