Ping An Securities: Textile And Garment Industry Success Or Failure Is Due To Investment Income
1. The decline is slightly higher than the market.
From January 1, 2008 to August 30th, the textile and apparel index decreased by 57.75%, or slightly higher than the corresponding decline in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (55.59%). Among them, the textile sub industry index dropped by 54.36%, the clothing sub industry index fell 53.22%, the decline was relatively small.
Two, China daily review
The real performance of the garment industry is more than that of the textile industry. Apart from the non recurring gains, we found that there were big problems in the textile sub industry, and the main business profits fell 4.3% compared with the same period last year. Net profit after the non recurring gains and losses dropped by 21.65%. On the other hand, the two indicators of apparel sub industry showed rapid growth, reaching 49.71% and 102.37% respectively. We believe that the main reason for the failure of the textile industry is the rising cost, the low-end products flooding the market, the low price of textile products and the difficulty of shifting the cost pressure. In the 2008 China Daily, the investment income of the textile and garment industry was 1 billion 700 million yuan, an increase of only 1.47% compared with the same period last year, which is 1078.9% different from that in 2007.
Three, industry data playback
Exports continue to be depressed - the US economy and the renminbi. The export growth rate of textile and garment industry continued to decline, and the export growth rate in the first half of this year has dropped to 9.69%. This is a relatively low level in recent years. The slowdown in garment export growth is even more evident, with export growth of only 1.58% in the first half. The sluggish consumption demand in the US has led to a decline in the number and amount of clothing exported to the United States and the most important factor in the decline in clothing exports. The growth rate of exports to the United States has seen a negative growth, with the growth rate of -4.28% in the first 7 months. In the first 8 months, the appreciation rate of RMB against the US dollar reached 6.3%, which was a major blow to the export oriented textile and garment industry, and the growth rate of fixed asset investment was divided. In the first 6 months, the investment in fixed assets of above scale textile industry (5 million yuan) increased by 14.24% compared to the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped by 11.37% compared with the same period last year. In the first half of the year, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the textile industry and clothing shoes industry was 6.3% and 24.7% respectively, and the differentiation was obvious. The profitability of capital is one of the important reasons leading to the differentiation of fixed asset investment growth.
Four, the increase in export tax rebates is only short-term good.
In August 1, 2008, the textile and garment tax rebate rate rose by only 2%, which will increase the total profit of US $2 billion 586 million (about 18 billion 100 million yuan), the total profit will increase by 15%, and net profit will increase by 11.25%. Since 2008, the appreciation of RMB has been close to 7%, and the rate of tax rebate increase is difficult to offset the appreciation of RMB.
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