China'S Import And Export Will Slow Down In 09 Years.

Our research shows that, regardless of the global macroeconomic situation in 09 years, China's trade surplus will contribute positively to the growth of GDP. The more pessimistic export expectations, the greater the positive contribution is 1.57.

　　邏輯與論證：

Overall exports: Although China's US dollar export growth rate is between 20%~25%, but if we do not consider the RMB appreciation factor, the actual growth rate is only about 10%~15%.

Export structure: China's export countries can mainly be divided into the United States, the European Union, Japan and emerging markets. The proportion of four countries in 07 years is 19.1%, 20.1%, 8.4% and 52.4% respectively.

We take the forecast value of IMF's global economy for 09 years as a neutral case, and at the same time assume that the economy is better than the optimistic forecast and the pessimistic situation below the forecast. We forecast the export of China respectively. The results show that the export growth rate of our country in the three years is 6.5%, 0.2% and -6.1% respectively.

The impact of export deceleration: the export growth rate of close to 0 is similar to that of 98 years. On the one hand, it may cause the growth rate of fixed assets investment in the manufacturing industry to be negative. On the other hand, it may cause about 800 thousand people to lose their jobs.

Import: China's imports are mainly divided into general trade and processing trade, the former is related to domestic consumption and investment, and the latter is related to exports. After making predictions separately, we think that 09 domestic imports growth is optimistic, neutral, pessimistic, 3.3%, -4.9%, -13.1%.

Net exports: considering the forecast value of imports and exports, we believe that next year's net exports will be optimistic, neutral and pessimistic. The three assumptions will increase domestic GDP growth by 1.31, 1.44 and 1.57 percentage points. That is to say, the worse the economy, the greater the net exports will drag on GDP.

　　明年出口有多壞？

In China, exports account for nearly 40% of GDP and trade dependence (the ratio of imports to exports to GDP) is close to 70%.

These two figures are much higher than those of big countries such as the United States and Japan, and most of the smaller economies. Therefore, under the background of global economic slowdown, exports as one of the three carriages driving China's economy has attracted wide attention. Many people are rather pessimistic about their expectations, but to what extent will they be damaged?

The current export structure of China is: 23.5% of EU, 17.5% of the United States, 8% of Japan, and 51% of other countries and regions, among which are mainly emerging market countries, such as Korea, Singapore, India and so on.

According to the latest economic forecast of IMF, the economic growth rates of the United States, the European Union, Japan and emerging market countries in the 09 years are -0.7, -0.5, -0.2 and 5.1 respectively. After fitting the import growth rate of China's products to the GDP growth rate of these major economies, we find that the growth rate of nominal imports of several major economies to China is respectively 13.6% of the US -5%, the EU -20.5%, the Japanese -0.3% and the emerging market countries. If the exchange rate fluctuation factor is not considered, the overall growth rate of China's exports next year will be around 0.8%, which is basically close to 0 growth, which is similar to the nominal growth rate of 0.5% in 98 years.

On the one hand, the export slowdown will directly drag on GDP. On the other hand, it will reduce the growth rate of investment by affecting the earnings expectations of various industries. At the same time, the rising unemployment rate will indirectly affect consumption.

But we think that the market has already reflected this pessimistic expectation, and we are optimistic about the effect of fiscal policy. Looking back 98 years, we can see that although the export volume is close to 0, the performance of the stock market is not so disappointing because of the strong economic stimulus.