Textile And Clothing: Boom In New Year Holidays

The total export volume of textiles and clothing increased by only 0.81% over the past 08 years, with the total export of textiles increased by 9.03%, and garment exports by 3.42%.

The abolition of textile quota between China and the United States can enhance textile exports to a certain extent, but whether the final export will pick up depends on external demand and orders. The 09 Canton Spring Fair will be the focus of attention.

In December 2008, the sales volume of 100 major large scale retail enterprises increased by 14.1% over the same period last year, of which retail sales increased by 11.59% over the same period last year.

Retail sales of clothing products grew by 15.48% over the same period last year, down 9.97 percentage points.

In the new year six, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by about 13.8% over the same period last year. Thirty.

Sales of clothing, shoes and hats increased by 14.2% and 12.9% respectively over the same period last year.

Businesses continue to increase the intensity of discount sales, and the government's policy to expand domestic demand appears, creating a prosperous holiday market.

However, "volume increase and price contraction" also affected sales growth to a certain extent, while overdraft the purchasing power of consumers, which may cause pressure on the growth of domestic demand in the future.

The more important role of revitalization planning is to help textile enterprises achieve a soft landing. However, because of the inability to create demand and partly supporting the effect of policies, there will be a lagging effect, and its role will be long-term. In the short term, the benefit of enterprises is not obvious.

50 listed companies have announced 08 years' performance notice. The performance of garment enterprises is obviously better than that of textile enterprises, especially the brand clothing enterprises have stronger profitability.

Export weakness has significantly increased the pressure of export oriented enterprises, and has also dragged down many indirect export enterprises.

The performance of the textile industry is poor for the whole industry, and the leading enterprises are also hard to escape, but its ability to resist risks is stronger than that of the general enterprises.

We still maintain a neutral investment proposal for the textile and garment industry.

It is suggested that low distribution textile industry, standard brand clothing, and continue to avoid export oriented enterprises with weak bargaining power, and pay close attention to leading enterprises supported by the government.

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Basic view

In the December 2008 industry monthly report, we believe that: 1, in the context of foreign economic situation is not clear, and foreign consumer confidence is seriously insufficient, the decline of foreign trade will continue. 2, the slowdown in domestic sales is inevitable, but it can still maintain two digit growth. 3, because of weak demand, the price reduction may become the main theme of the industry at present and next year; 4, under the influence of uncertainty, the formulation of enterprise production plans is more prudent, the pressure of enterprise orders will increase next year; 5, according to the implementation of the slowdown in demand, enterprises will promptly adjust the production rhythm and sales strategy to ensure the inventory turnover efficiency, but at the same time, the growth rate of sales revenue has obviously slowed down, and the impact of the increase in the cost of the period is much slower.

The relevant export and domestic sales data in December and January 09 basically meet the above judgment: China's largest trading partners, the United States, Japan and Europe, continue to decline in economic growth and weak residents' consumption desire, which makes us still unable to make optimistic contributions to foreign demand. The more important market in 09 years will be placed in China.

On the domestic market, businesses continue to increase the intensity of discount sales, and the government's policy to expand domestic demand has shown that the festival market has prospered, but the "volume increase" has affected the growth of retail sales to a certain extent, and has also overdrawn the purchasing power of consumers, which may cause pressure on the growth of domestic demand in the future.

The revitalization plan of textile industry embodies the characteristics of universality, pertinence and bottom-up.

The more important role of revitalization planning is to help textile enterprises achieve a soft landing and let some of the competitive enterprises survive the temporary difficulties.

But the revitalization plan can not create demand, and the effect of partial support policy appears lagging behind, so its impact will be long-term.

In the short term, the benefit of enterprises is not obvious; in the long run, enterprises that have advantages in technological innovation, brand and channel construction will benefit.

Generally speaking, we still maintain a neutral judgement on the industry, and recommend the brand clothing and low distribution textiles.

　　行業數據

Export growth rebounded slightly, but the contribution of external demand was not optimistic. According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, China's textile and clothing exports grew by 8.21% in 2008, and the monthly export growth in December was slightly higher than that in November.

However, under the quota of RMB, the export of textiles has increased by 9.03% in 08 years, and the total export of clothing has declined by 3.42%. In a word, the total export of textile and clothing has increased by only 0.81%.

The decline in overseas demand, especially in the US, Europe, Japan and other major importing countries, is an important reason for the rapid slowdown or decline in China's textile and clothing exports, and the appreciation of the renminbi has further amplified this effect.