09 China'S Exports To The US Textile Industry May Be Negative.
In 2009, China's textile and clothing exports to the United States may grow negatively, and the EU and Japan markets will grow weakly, and the growth rate of developing economies will be significantly higher than that of developed countries.
The export growth rate of the US, EU, Japan and developing economies has been prolonged for many years.
A review of the latest textile industry in 2008 and the prospect of the textile industry in 2009 were made by the China Textile Industry Association.
According to the report, the impact of the financial crisis on the US real economy will continue to be released in 2009. The market demand will continue to decline, the unemployment rate will exceed 7.5%, and the personal consumption will shrink by more than 2%. Based on the latest GDP forecast data of the IMF, according to the correlation between us economic growth and consumption, it can be estimated that the clothing category of the US residents in 2009 dropped by about 1% to 2%, and the total import of textile and clothing decreased by about 4% compared with the same period last year.
Due to the impact of the financial crisis, employment in the European industrial manufacturing industry has declined rapidly, the number of unemployed people has increased, the income of residents has decreased, and the interest rate in the euro area has been high, which has restrained consumption. Therefore, the EU market demand will further weaken in 2009, and clothing consumption will drop by about 1% compared with the same period. It is estimated that the export growth rate of European textile and clothing will be 0% to 6% in the whole year.
For the Japanese market, the report analyzed that consumption of Japanese residents will continue to shrink in 2009. Because of the relatively perfect infrastructure in Japan, it is difficult to increase financial investment, the bank interest rate is zero at present, the government's monetary control means are limited, and the market demand is hard to recover. However, Japan's impact in the current economic crisis is relatively small compared with that in Europe and the United States, and the residents' support structure is more reasonable, so the market shrinkage will not be very serious. Taking into account the projections, it is estimated that China's textile and clothing exports to Japan will grow by 1% to 5% in 2009.
The biggest bright spot is the developing economies. In 2009, China's textile industry maintained steady growth in Russia, India, Brazil and Africa and other emerging developing countries and regions, which is an important driving force for the export growth of the industry. Asian countries have maintained a relatively strong growth momentum in terms of clothing consumption demand. The demand growth in the region in 2009 is obviously better than that in the developed economies, but the pressure on domestic demand growth will be increased as a result of the drop in external demand, so the growth trend of China's emerging market growth will have a deceleration trend throughout the year, but the growth rate will still reach Gao Yufa, and the annual export growth rate is expected to be 5% to 10%.
The export growth rate of the US, EU, Japan and developing economies has been prolonged for many years.
A review of the latest textile industry in 2008 and the prospect of the textile industry in 2009 were made by the China Textile Industry Association.
According to the report, the impact of the financial crisis on the US real economy will continue to be released in 2009. The market demand will continue to decline, the unemployment rate will exceed 7.5%, and the personal consumption will shrink by more than 2%. Based on the latest GDP forecast data of the International Monetary Fund, according to the correlation between us economic growth and consumption, it can be estimated that the clothing category of the US residents in 2009 dropped by about 1% to 2%. The total import of textile and clothing decreased by about 4% compared with the same period last year.
Due to the impact of the financial crisis, employment in the European industrial manufacturing industry has declined rapidly, the number of unemployed people has increased, the income of residents has decreased, and the interest rate in the euro area has been high, which has restrained consumption. Therefore, the EU market demand will further weaken in 2009, and clothing consumption will drop by about 1% compared with the same period. It is estimated that the export growth rate of European textile and clothing will be 0% to 6% in the whole year.
For the Japanese market, the report analyzed that consumption of Japanese residents will continue to shrink in 2009. Because of the relatively perfect infrastructure in Japan, it is difficult to increase financial investment, the bank interest rate is zero at present, the government's monetary control means are limited, and the market demand is hard to recover. However, Japan's impact in the current economic crisis is relatively small compared with that in Europe and the United States, and the residents' support structure is more reasonable, so the market shrinkage will not be very serious. Taking into account the projections, it is estimated that China's textile and clothing exports to Japan will grow by 1% to 5% in 2009.
The biggest bright spot is the developing economies. In 2009, China's textile industry maintained steady growth in Russia, India, Brazil and Africa and other emerging developing countries and regions, which is an important driving force for the export growth of the industry. Asian countries have maintained a relatively strong growth momentum in terms of clothing consumption demand. The demand growth in the region in 2009 is obviously better than that in the developed economies, but the pressure on domestic demand growth will be increased as a result of the drop in external demand, so the growth trend of China's emerging market growth will have a deceleration trend throughout the year, but the growth rate will still reach Gao Yufa, and the annual export growth rate is expected to be 5% to 10%.
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