Chemical Fiber Industry: Golden Phoenix Has Become The Bitter Cauliflower.
"Last year, it was arrogant, but this year it was squeezed on both sides. Good days for the chemical fiber industry are over. " Xinxiang chemical fiber Securities Department recently said in an interview with reporters. In the battle of market, price and cost, the profitability of many chemical fiber enterprises has gone from bad to worse this year.
"Within a short period of time, the chemical fiber industry is rapidly falling from the peak of a boom cycle to the bottom of the valley, and its ups and downs can be regarded as the top of the entire textile industry." First textile network analyst Wang Qian said. Behind the high oil prices, which hurt many high oil prices this year, is the helpless sigh of countless chemical fiber companies.
More than 90% of the products in the chemical fiber industry are petroleum derivatives. Under the condition of continuous high operation of international oil prices, the contradiction of resource constraints has become increasingly prominent. Because of the huge scale of China's chemical fiber industry and the oversupply of supply, it often does not have the ability to pfer costs to the downstream through bargaining, which leads the chemical fiber manufacturing industry to be at the lowest end of the industrial chain profit for a long time.
From the beginning of the year, around 90 US dollars per barrel climbed to a record high of more than US $143 / barrel in June 30th, and the rise in international oil prices this year is quite amazing. Affected by this, the curtain raising of international chemical giants has been officially lifted. From ethylene, propylene and other basic petrochemical products to acrylonitrile, PTA, caprolactam and other raw materials for direct chemical fiber production, a new round of continuous price increase has begun. On the contrary, the prices of synthetic fibers such as acrylic, polyester, nylon and so on have risen little, and even the forced price increases are far below the increase of raw materials.
According to relevant data, the gross profit margin of the crude oil industry in April was 48.47%, which is a typical profiteering industry. The polyester raw material industry has a gross profit margin of 10.18%, and the polyester fiber industry is only 4.56%. Taking into account three charges and other expenses, there is basically no profit.
"The price of PTA has risen from 7000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 9300 yuan / ton now, rising by 2300 yuan per ton in the past six months, or more than 30%. As far as I know, many enterprises in the industry have closed down. Liu Hongchun, general manager of Jinxing Chemical Fiber Textile Industry Co., Ltd. Reporters noted that in June 30th, the PTA of the Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai markets offered a price of 9350 yuan per ton, and the market still has room for improvement.
Like many other peers, Liu Hongchun has been puzzling over costs for half a year. "Last month, we made several price adjustments in line with the market situation. However, because of the low demand for textile industry in the lower reaches, the pressure of raw material prices can not be completely pferred out. We can only digest most of them. " Liu Hongchun kept sighing at the end of the phone.
In fact, the chemical fiber industry has also experienced a period of high prosperity. Wang Qian said, "yesterday's Golden Phoenix, today's bitter cauliflower" can be described as a true portrayal of the great contrast between the two industries of viscose and spandex over the past year.
Last year, the profits of viscose and spandex industry achieved a remarkable growth rate of 97.46% and 90.91% respectively, due to the sharp rise in product prices and good production and marketing situation. However, since the beginning of 2008, with the rapid expansion of investment and expansion speed, the business cycle of viscose and spandex has been getting shorter and shorter, which has become a difficult circle for the chemical fiber industry in recent years. The data released by the National Bureau of statistics in June 27th also showed that the profit of 1~5 national chemical fiber industry dropped by 246.8 percentage points over the same period last year.
Affected by factors such as accelerating capacity expansion and slow start-up of downstream demand, the price of spandex and viscose has dropped sharply, and the stock of products has risen sharply. The price of spandex 40D has dropped from 70000 yuan / ton around the beginning of this year to the current 47000 yuan / ton, or more than 30%. Although the price of raw materials PTMEG and pure MDI has also declined, the decline is only about 10%, far lower than that of Spandex Products, resulting in a sharp decline in the profits of spandex industry. Xinxiang chemical fiber Securities Department said. In his view, the gross profit margin of the spandex industry reached over 40% during the peak period last year, and this year it can be maintained at 15%.
Unlike other chemical fiber sub industries, the high price of crude oil has no direct impact on the viscose industry. But the rapid release of new capacity, the downturn of downstream demand and the change of export tax rebate policy also make the viscose industry in a tight corner. Viscose filament prices have been hovering at the level of 32500 yuan / ton for a long time, sales are very light, filament stocks have reached the industry's nearly 3 months of production, gross margin of products has dropped from more than 20% of the peak to less than 10% today, and viscose staple fiber prices from the beginning of the year 22200 yuan / ton continued to decline to the current 15400 yuan / ton, the cumulative decline of 44%.
To break through the differences, the difficulties faced by the chemical fiber industry are unprecedented. The overall weakness of the textile industry may just begin. After fully enjoying the profiteering profits brought by the continuous growth of the products in 2007, the risk of related enterprises began to release as the viscose and spandex fields began to show a downward turning point. Wang Qian said.
Liu Hongchun told reporters that under the background of low demand, excess capacity is nowhere to be released, and some chemical fiber enterprises can only be maintained by limiting production, reducing production and stopping production and maintenance. It is reported that the reduction of production within the industry is between 20%~30%.
"However, the intensity of downstream production is also increasing, and the contradiction between supply and demand will still exist. It is expected that the reduction of chemical fiber market will continue." Wang Qian said. In fact, doom is more than that. Insiders said that the real test is that in the second half of the year, enterprises will face a comprehensive rise in prices of oil, electricity and steam.
"The plight of the textile industry is facing a fundamental change at the moment. The chemical fiber industry will also linger in the downturn of another downturn in the face of the constraints of capacity expansion and low demand." The industry said, "when the industry is in the doldrums, the adjustment of industrial structure and the development of differentiation are imminent. Improving the differential rate of fiber and improving the added value of chemical fiber products is an important means to improve the profitability and competitiveness of the industry, especially when the industry cycle is down and the economy is declining, the differentiated fiber varieties can better avoid the risk of the industry."
According to the insiders, enterprises that have developed different fiber varieties and focused on market demand, continuously developed new products and occupied high-end products market have been widely favored by investors, such as halid, which provides polyester industrial yarn for automobile safety belts and tires, and Yantai spandex, which has made breakthroughs and progress in the field of aramid fiber with high technical barriers, and continuously extended and improved the industrial chain under the background of high oil price, and continued to develop in the field of coal chemical industry, Yun Wei shares and Shanxi three dimensional.
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