The Export Tax Rebate Policy Will Face Enormous Adjustment Pressure.

This year, the growth rate of China's foreign trade has maintained more than 20% growth rate in other months except for some accidental factors in February. However, the data released by the General Administration of Customs yesterday showed that in June, China's foreign trade exports increased by 17%, falling below 20% for the first time.

In response, Zhao Yumin, director of the international marketing department of the Ministry of Commerce, said in an interview that China's export situation is grim this year, and the two digit growth has been quite good. But the growth rate of 20% is indeed a sensitive critical point. China's foreign trade policy, especially the export tax rebate policy, will face tremendous adjustment pressure from enterprises.

Annual export growth is around 15%.

As international raw materials and energy prices continue to rise, labor costs and other production costs continue to rise, accelerate the pace of RMB appreciation, combined with energy saving and emission reduction policy pressure, Zhao Yumin estimated that this year's export costs of Chinese enterprises increased by 20%-30%, making the past international market share of traditional commodity prices no longer superiority, great impact on the test of life and death.

According to customs statistics, the export growth of traditional bulk commodities showed signs of slowdown in the first half of this year.

Among them, clothing and clothing accessories exported $49 billion 960 million, an increase of 3.4%, 18.3 percentage points lower than the same period last year; footwear exports 13 billion 460 million US dollars, an increase of 12.5%, down 4.7 percentage points over the same period last year.

Zhao Yumin said that in the second half of this year, China's export situation also depends on whether the state carries out policy adjustments, such as raising the export tax rebate policy and relaxing the credit policy to support export enterprises. However, no matter how the policy is chosen, the annual export growth is about 15%.

A research report from Beijing's company also pointed out that in view of the comeback of the credit crisis in the United States, the EU economy began to slow down, the 24 emerging markets tightened policy, oil prices remained high, China's export growth would continue to slow down, and the growth rate should be more than 15% in the second half of the year.

Face up to the pains of industrial upgrading

For the pressure of policy adjustment brought about by the slowdown in export growth, Zhao Yumin believes that there are two major concerns on the policy side. First, the traditional employment intensive enterprises with export shocks are facing a large employment problem, and the livelihood issues can not be ignored; secondly, the whole macro-economic system should be taken into consideration.

Huatai Securities analyst Cui Hongxia believes that the slowdown in export growth caused the possibility of a hard landing in China's economy is not great. Although the contribution of external demand to economic growth has increased significantly since 2005, the average pull rate of GDP has been around 2.5 percentage points, and the contribution rate to GDP has averaged about 22%. However, domestic demand, including investment and consumption, is still the main force driving economic growth. In the past three years, the average domestic demand for GDP is 8.5 percentage points, and the contribution rate to GDP is about 78%.

"In recent years, China's foreign trade policy emphasizes changing the mode of foreign trade growth and promoting industrial upgrading. In fact, in the long run, the survival pressure and elimination risk of such low technology and low added value commodity export enterprises is the inevitable pain for China to change its growth mode."

Zhao Yumin pointed out that export enterprises should not rely on the support of government policies, adapt to changes in market regulation, take the initiative to eliminate backward production capacity, and carry out industrial upgrading to resist market risks.

At present, the enterprises that appear to be eliminated are making room for the market, which makes the bargaining power of excellent enterprises increase. Data in the first quarter show that the export commodities such as steel, coal, tea, pork, plywood, log and so on have all seen a good phenomenon of increasing volume or decreasing price.