Export Growth In June Fell Below The Critical Point. Foreign Trade Policy Is Now Adjusting The Pressure.

Since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of China's foreign trade has maintained a growth rate of more than 20% in other months except for some accidental factors in February. However, the data released by the General Administration of Customs yesterday showed that in June, China's foreign trade exports increased by 17%, down to 20% below the sensitive critical point of 6.5%.

According to customs statistics, China's foreign trade import and export value reached US $1 trillion and 234 billion 170 million in the first half of this year, an increase of 25.7% over the same period last year.

Among them, exports of 666 billion 600 million US dollars, an increase of 21.9%, the growth rate is 5.7 percentage points lower than the same period last year; imports 567 billion 570 million U. s.dollars, an increase of 30.6%.

The cumulative trade surplus was $99 billion 30 million, down 11.8% from the same period last year, and a net decrease of $13 billion 210 million.

In June, the total value of China's imports and exports was US $221 billion 710 million, an increase of 23.3%.

The trade balance reached US $21 billion 350 million, down 20.6% from the same period last year, and a net decrease of US $5 billion 540 million.

Zhao Yumin, director of the international marketing department of the Ministry of Commerce, said in an interview with our newspaper that China's export situation is grim this year, and that the two digit growth has been quite good. But the growth rate of 20% is indeed a sensitive critical point. China's foreign trade policy, especially the export tax refund policy, will face tremendous adjustment pressure from the enterprises.

Because of rising international raw material and energy prices, rising labor costs and other production costs, and accelerating the pace of RMB appreciation, combined with energy saving and emission reduction policy pressure, experts estimate that the export cost of Chinese enterprises has increased by 20%-30% this year, making the export price advantage of traditional commodities with large international market share no longer, being greatly impacted and facing the test of life and death.

According to customs statistics, the export growth of traditional bulk commodities showed signs of slowdown in the first half of this year.

Among them, clothing and clothing accessories exported $49 billion 960 million, an increase of 3.4%, 18.3 percentage points lower than the same period last year; footwear exports 13 billion 460 million US dollars, an increase of 12.5%, down 4.7 percentage points over the same period last year.

"In the second half of this year, China's export situation also depends on whether the state carries out policy adjustments, such as raising export tax rebate policy and relaxing credit policy to support export enterprises."

But Zhao Yumin said that no matter how the policy was chosen, the annual export growth remained at around 15%.

"Recently, the State Council has conducted intensive research on Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and Shandong, and frequently visited foreign trade enterprises. One of the purposes is to find a policy balance for the second half of the year's economic operation."

An economic expert thinks so.

However, export enterprises can not rely on the support of government policies, adapt to changes in market regulation, take the initiative to eliminate backward production capacity, and carry out industrial upgrading to resist market risks.

Zhao Yumin said, "in recent years, China's foreign trade policy emphasizes changing the mode of foreign trade growth and promoting industrial upgrading. In the long run, the survival pressure and elimination risk faced by the low technology and low added value commodity export enterprises are the inevitable pains for China to change the mode of foreign trade growth."

Cui Hongxia, an analyst at Huatai Securities, is optimistic that domestic demand, including investment and consumption, is still the main driving force for economic growth. The slowdown in export growth has led to the possibility of a hard landing in China's economic operation.