Silk Trend And Outlook In The Two Quarter

The recent silk situation and price trend can be summed up in two sentences: cocoons, silk and silk are sung more in the past few months.

Beginning in June, silk and cocoon were short, and silk was hard to do.

In the two quarter of this year, the characteristics of raw materials were higher, and two rose every month.

First of all, this year, the main producing areas of Southern sericulture were generally subjected to the freezing snow disaster. They were spared from Jiangsu to Zhejiang to more than 10 lakes and two provinces.

Most people think that this will greatly affect the quality of silkworm eggs in spring.

Judging from the acquisition of spring cocoons, the quality of cocoons is indeed affected, mainly due to the ease of relaxation.

Second, the price of energy, agricultural materials and labor has risen, and the cost of planting has risen.

Last year, the purchase price of autumn cocoons was relatively low, which failed to reach the ideal price of cocoon farmers, and suppressed the enthusiasm of farmers to raise silkworms.

The price of silk is characterized by its long lag behind the rising price of silk, which did not follow until May.

In May, the first batch of spring cocoons was opened, and the first spring cocoon prices from Guangdong and Guangxi provinces and Hainan provinces reached 10. yuan per Jin.

Although its quantity and texture still do not have enough representation and decisive power, it is a kind of "Spring River heating duck prophet" role, a signal that opens up cocoon, silk and silk together.

In May, the cocoons and silk were in the black, and the cocoons of the autumn cocoons were running out before the year.

Cocoon source and silk source are not enough.

The price of silk should be stabilized on the spring cocoon, but the first spring cocoons in Guangdong and Guangxi provinces and Hainan provinces have been put on the market. The main producing areas are still in the areas such as Jiang, Zhe, Wan, Lu, two Xiang, Sichuan and Chongqing.

Therefore, after the May 1st Festival, the price of white factory continues to rise significantly. The 3A grade white factory silk has been approaching 192 thousand yuan per ton, with a trend towards 200 thousand yuan, and finally stands above 190 thousand mark.

High grade white silk such as 5A grade wire has reached more than 210 thousand per ton and is heading for 220 thousand yuan.

The increase is more than 10 thousand yuan per ton.

At last, the final product of satin is also rising slowly under the long-term pressure of cost.

5. "After the festival, the rate of increase is quickening, and it has basically been synchronized with the price of white factory silk.

For example, the smallest increase is 14654 yuan crepe satin is also around 1 yuan / meter, the larger increase is 14117 yuan crepe satin close to 5 yuan per meter.

It can be said that cocoons, silk and silk have begun to enter the region of high operation, forming a pattern of cocoon, silk and silk singing together.

In June, spring cocoons came in large numbers.

The price of raw materials of cocoon has been adjusted back from the high level area, and the amount of silk per ton has dropped by about 4000 yuan.

While the price of silk is hesitating, it is hard to maintain its support, and it has not yet been fully adjusted.

Downstream consumer demand continues, but varieties change.

The continuous increase of the price of white silk in the early stage has a great impact on the production and consumption of the downstream silk fabrics.

The sale of thin silk has been smooth since May.

Whether it is twisting chiffon, or not twisting silk, silk, cotton and other varieties are sold.

Moreover, downstream orders are coming in one after another, and the quantity of orders for each order has begun to rise.

This is in sharp contrast to the order volume of thick fabrics in the past.

According to the manufacturer, many orders are over tens of thousands of meters, and there are one hundred thousand meters list.

This is very rare in the past.

For example, silk chiffon 8 m meter weight, 114CM width, the price can reach about 16 yuan.

The order quantity is 200 thousand meters, which should be regarded as an unprecedented order.

Looking forward to the future trend, from the macroeconomic perspective.

Cost push is the main factor to push this price increase, and it is a passive factor.

There is a continuous appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, but the enterprise has not significantly increased the quoted price in the US dollar for the purpose of keeping the competitive advantage.

The cost of processing water, electricity, coal and pportation is high.

According to some enterprises, this part of the price and wages have risen about 20% since last year.

In addition, from the analysis of supply and demand situation.

This year, the state's subsidies for the production of grain and other agricultural products, as well as the conduction effect of the substantial increase in grain prices, induced the rise in prices of all kinds of commodities from two aspects, vertical and horizontal, and the price of production materials related to cocoon production, such as fertilizers, pesticides and plastic films. The statistics of China Silk Import and Export Corporation showed that the comprehensive average price of silkworm cocoon purchase decreased by more than 20 percentage points last year, which greatly reduced the income of silkworm farmers. The comparative benefits of sericultural production were seriously weakened and production enthusiasm was greatly hurt.

Farmers not only reduce the silkworm rearing capacity, but also reduce input, and further affect the output and quality of silkworm cocoons.

　　 　　。

There are some cost factors, though in the long run, many of them are conducive to the structural adjustment of enterprises and the pformation of growth pattern. However, enterprises in front of eyes need to face the real problem of serious compression of profits.

In particular, processing enterprises such as silk reeling, it was estimated that the cost and cost increased by about 20%, the amount of losses increased and the deficit expanded.

The export of enterprises is often in the dilemma of "doing" and "not doing": if we do not, we may lose the market; doing is like doing nothing.

Many enterprises, under all kinds of difficulties, have resisted a series of risks for their meager profits and even struggled on the margins of losses. Thus, they have been forced to contract business or cut production, stop production and turn over production, and carry out structural adjustment.

However, on the other hand, market demand for silk products still exists and production needs to continue.

Therefore, when the structure is constantly adjusted, the increase of cost will inevitably drive the gradual recovery of product prices.

In June, the spring Cocoon acquisition of cocoon and heavy drama ended once a year.

From the general price of spring cocoon, the cocoon price is low this year, and the enthusiasm of sericulture and sericulture is also affected by increasing cost and the ratio of agricultural products. Therefore, the supply of cocoons will be reduced in a certain period of time. When the supply reaches a certain value, the overreaction will be highlighted. With the speculation of human factors, the price of cocoon silk will be limited.

Raw silk has risen and fallen, but the overall trend has not yet been out of the woods. The recent unilateral decline of cocoon price has greatly restricted the uplink of silk price.

The consumption of silk is relatively stable over the past years, whether it is good year or bad year, which is related to the resource nature of Chinese silk.

Therefore, the key to determining the price of raw silk lies in the supply, and in the light of the above expectation that the supply of cocoons will be reduced, the long-term supply will soon be in sight.

In addition, on the export side, the biggest factor affecting foreign purchases is the instability of raw silk prices, because the demand is fixed within a certain period of time, and the fall in prices will encourage them to wait and see. The price increase will increase the purchasing speed of foreign merchants, thus further promoting the rise of silk prices.

Therefore, in the long run, the price of raw silk and silk will be stronger and stable.